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FM
Former Member

A Brazilian delegation's quick trip to Guyana and Suriname suggests things are moving beneath the surface of the border dispute between Venezuela and Guyana. On Feb. 7, Brazilian President Michel Temer approved a trip by Defense Minister Raul Jungmann, Justice Minister Torquato Jardim and Institutional Security Cabinet Chief Sergio Etchegoyen to Guyana and Suriname. According to Agencia Estado, the visit's purpose is to discuss border security with the Guyanese and Surinamese governments. However, an unconfirmed report in Brazilian paper O Antagonista claimed the real reason behind the visit was to share information that Brazil's intelligence services had learned about Venezuela considering a military incursion into Guyana.

Venezuela has claimed ownership over the Guyanese territory west of the Essequibo River since 1962. But recently, the U.N. Secretary General referred the border dispute issue to the International Court of Justice, which may issue a binding decision on the matter within the next several years. According to the O Antagonista report, Brazil's information claims that the Venezuelan government is considering siezing that territory. On Feb. 8, the Brazilian ministers visited their country's Roraima state, an area bordering Guyana and Venezuela that has seen tens of thousands of Venezuelan refugees pour across the border in recent months as unrest in the country grows.

 

 

https://worldview.stratfor.com...ezuela-invade-guyana

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Much to Lose, Much to Gain

It may seem as though an incursion into Guyana would only further erode the country's current situation. And right now, O Antagonista is the only open source outlet reporting the alleged Venezuelan plan to enter Guyana militarily. Caracas is under increasing economic pressure at home, as hyperinflation accelerates by the day and the United States threatens sanctions that will choke off Venezuela's economic lifeline to U.S. Gulf Coast refineries. Seizing even a small part of territory west of the Essequibo River would draw U.S. attention toward Venezuela's economic crisis and its slide into dictatorship, increasing the likelihood that Washington will employ heavier sanctions or intervene more directly.

But there are a number of political considerations that may motivate Caracas to make a move. In the short term, the incursion could help Caracas in its ongoing dialogue with the Trump administration over the terms of President Nicolas Maduro and his party's departure from power. The Venezuelan president won't leave power — or even loosen his party's grip over the opposition — unless he has assurances from Washington that he and his acolytes will receive some form of amnesty. And seizing and holding Guyanese territory might offer Caracas a bargaining chip, allowing it to wrangle a better amnesty deal in exchange for a troop withdrawal.

In the long run, holding Guyanese territory could offer Venezuela a way to delay the International Court of Justice's ruling about the border dispute. After all, the court may hold off on a ruling if Venezuelan troops are present in Guyanese territory. Moreover, the Maduro government may be counting on the incursion to pump up nationalism among Venezuelans. By directing attention outside its borders, the government could be able to buy time before organized domestic unrest gain critical mass, or even forestall any possible military coup attempt by moving units far from the capital.

Envisioning the Incursion

If a military incursion does happen, the majority of Venezuela's armed forces would likely enter Guyanese territory by helicopter. Some troops may enter by ground, but they would be limited by the dense jungles and lack of roads in the region. Similarly, moving naval forces along Guyana's coast would be difficult given Venezuela's limited naval capabilities. But the Venezuelan military does have aerial superiority over the Guyanese, as well as plenty of members of the National Guard and regular armed forces already situated in the eastern part of the country. Guyana, on the other hand, has extremely limited armed forces, which it would struggle to transport to its western border. Ultimately, it would be relatively easy for Venezuela to deploy just a few hundred troops into Guyana to seize limited points such as villages, bridges, or roads throughout the country.

 
 

In addition to the logistical challenges Venezuela would face — such as getting enough food rations for its armed forces — there is also the political risk for Caracas that the United States would respond harshly to an incursion into Guyana. So far, Washington has chosen to slowly and selectively raise pressure on Venezuela's government through escalating sanctions. But Venezuela's forceful seizure of the land west of the Essequibo River — even if it is disputed — would spark major debate within the White House. The Trump administration would have to either let Venezuela keep land that it could use as leverage, or act against the country in some way. Right now, the United States has a range of options to pressure Venezuela and may choose to implement much heavier economic sanctions. But it may eventually have to contemplate military actions, though a wider conflict with the Venezuelan armed forces would be difficult for Washington as it faces other foreign policy crises across the world.

Any Venezuelan military action against Guyana comes with major implications for foreign energy companies already doing business there. ExxonMobil, for example, is planning to continue oil exploration drilling off Guyana's coast in 2018, and other private companies own stakes in offshore blocks. Naval activity by Venezuela or the United States would disrupt business plans and increase the risk to personnel from oil companies with current or future operations in Guyana or neighboring Trinidad and Tobago.

Right now, the rumors surrounding the Brazilian delegation's sudden trip to Guyana and Suriname are just that — rumors. But although it would come with major risk, there is logic behind a Venezuelan incursion into Guyanese territory, and many eyes will likely be trained on the region west of the Essequibo River in the coming months.

 

more to the analyses

https://worldview.stratfor.com...ezuela-invade-guyana

Django

Brazil Defence Minister and team visits.

Feb 9,2018.

Source

2 hours ago

 

President David Granger (right) greeting Brazil’s Minister of Defence, Raul Jungmann. He later introduced him to members of Cabinet and the Defence Board. (Ministry of the Presidency photo)

President David Granger and several members of his Cabinet met today with a high-level delegation from Brazil led by Brazilian Minister of Defence, Raul Jungmann.

Django

A Venezuelan incursion into Guyana will be a  wasted effort.  They would eventually have to withdraw from all land captured.  A Venezuelan invasion of Guyana will be a good thing for the Kim family.  It would keep Trump's focus on removing Maduro and socialism from Venezuela and Kim and his bomb will be second on the agenda. 

Prashad

Guyana aiming at intensified defence co-operation with Brazil

-lauds its support on Venezuela border controversy.

Feb 9,2018.

Source

In the presence of Brazil’s defence minister, President David Granger today signalled a desire for stronger defence cooperation with Brasilia in light of what he said was the “present situation in the northern coast of South America”, an apparent reference to the situation in Venezuela.

The President also lauded Brazil for its support on the question of the border controversy with Venezuela.

Brazil’s Defence Minister Raul Jungmann was conferred with the Cacique Crown of Honour during the visit today.

A release from the Ministry of the Presidency follows:

President David Granger, joined by some Ministers of Government and members of the Defence Board, today, hosted Brazil’s Minister of Defence, Mr. Raul Jungmann Pinto, along with a high level delegation, which included Brazil’s Minister of Justice, Mr. Torquato Lorena Jardim.  The bilateral engagement, which was hosted at State House, saw a commitment by both countries to review the September, 2012 Joint CommuniquÃĐ, which followed the official visit to Guyana by Ambassador Celso Amorim, then Minister of Defence of Brazil.  The review is intended to update the agreements in that document and bring them in line with present-day realities, as well as, to deepen defence cooperation.

The President’s team included Minister of Foreign Affairs, Mr. Carl Greenidge, Minister of State, Mr. Joseph Harmon, Minister of Public Security, Mr. Khemraj Ramjattan, Attorney General, Mr. Basil Williams, Minister of Public Infrastructure, Mr. David Patterson, Minister of Natural Resources, Mr. Raphael Trotman, Minister of Citizenship, Mr. Winston Felix, Minister of Finance, Mr. Winston Jordan and Minister of Public Affairs, Ms. Dawn Hastings-Williams. Officials from the visiting delegation included General of the Brazilian Army, Mr. Sergio Etchegoyen, General of the Brazilian Army, Mr. Fernando Azevedo E. Silva and a representative from the Brazilian Foreign Affairs Ministry, Ambassador Nelson Tabajara De Oliveira.

President Granger said that this visit, which follows closely after his own official State visit to Brazil in late December, is the initiation of the celebration of 50 years of diplomatic relations between Guyana and Brazil. He added that the signing of that 2012 CommuniquÃĐ saw the establishment of a bilateral defence working group.

“We would like to review the Joint CommuniquÃĐ to determine its applicability to present-day circumstances. That agreement contained seven points, which are being implemented but in light of the present situation in the northern coast of South America we would like to review that agreementâ€Ķ to put greater emphasis on surveillance and our involvement in the Amazon Surveillance System,” President Granger said.

 

To this end, Minister Jungmann informed that Brazil is ready to revisit the terms and provisions of the CommuniquÃĐ to work out the modalities of how the two countries can cooperate in the areas of defence outlined by the President. “We are willing to review the CommuniquÃĐ. We will do this through our Military AttachÃĐâ€Ķ who will then refer it to the higher authorities,” he said.

Speaking of defence cooperation, Minister Jungmann told the President that countries in the hemisphere have to work more closely together to tackle problems like drug-trafficking and other transnational crimes, which threaten law and order and citizens’ safety. “As Minister of Defence, we have responsibility for the army, the marine and the air force, so whatever we can do to assist Guyana, let us know,” the Minister told the President.

Meanwhile, Guyana’s Minister of Foreign Affairs Minister updated the visiting delegation on the recent developments of the Guyana-Venezuela border controversy, which he said is at the heart of Guyana’s national security.

President Granger also took the opportunity to place on record, Guyana’s gratitude to Brazil for its support for Guyana in the border controversy with Venezuela. “Brazil, for 50 years, has been a guarantor of our territory and has maintained that it is not interested in in any changes to settled boundaries,” he said.

Minister Jungmann said that Brazil has the third largest border in South America and the world at large and it has frontier with 10 countries. He noted that Brazil wants to see the controversy with Venezuela resolved permanently and in a diplomatic manner, which can be achieved at the International Court of Justice (ICJ). This, he said, is vital for the stability of the South American continent.

This visit follows a State Visit to Brazil by President Granger in December last year during which discussions were held on cooperation between the Guyana Defence Force and the Brazilian Military in terms of capacity-building and expertise transfer and follow-up dialogue on the work of the Guyana-Brazil Joint Technical Working Group, which was established to identify and implement key developmental projects. Additionally, last month, Brazil’s Minister of Health, Dr. Ricardo Jose Magalháūąes Barros visited Guyana to explore possible areas of cooperation in the health sector.

Django

The only invasion happening would be Venezuelan troops invading people's kitchen. They have no food. Supermarket shelves are empty. How then can Chavez sustain such a force on foreign soil? There was an article not so long ago about a handful of venezuelan troops who crossed our borders and begged for sustenance

There will be no invasion. But in the event there is, Django and the all knowing Carib will be there to repel any attack .

Sheik101
Sheik101 posted:

The only invasion happening would be Venezuelan troops invading people's kitchen. They have no food. Supermarket shelves are empty. How then can Chavez sustain such a force on foreign soil? There was an article not so long ago about a handful of venezuelan troops who crossed our borders and begged for sustenance

There will be no invasion. But in the event there is, Django and the all knowing Carib will be there to repel any attack .

 D2 will also be there.

FM
Last edited by Former Member
Prashad posted:
yuji22 posted:

Looks like Prash is plotting to get his motherland.

That is the only way to go.

Strike at the right opportunity.

The Brazilians mixed up their intelligence reports or it could just be that they are using Venezuela's name as a diversion tactic. Notice how Zero Indians were included in the discussions ?

Prash you are really good. Looks like the invasion is coming from Surniame side. Granger is too dull to catch on.

brazilguyana

 

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FM
Last edited by Former Member
yuji22 posted:
Django posted:
yuji22 posted:
 
 Notice how Zero Indians were included in the discussions ?

 

brazilguyana

 

Blind as a bat who is sitting left of Granger ?

Show us the proof na ? Dat is a Dougla there.

 

Yep Prak tun Dougla.

The President’s team included Minister of Foreign Affairs, Mr. Carl Greenidge, Minister of State, Mr. Joseph Harmon, Minister of Public Security, Mr. Khemraj Ramjattan, Attorney General, Mr. Basil Williams, Minister of Public Infrastructure, Mr. David Patterson, Minister of Natural Resources, Mr. Raphael Trotman, Minister of Citizenship, Mr. Winston Felix, Minister of Finance, Mr. Winston Jordan and Minister of Public Affairs, Ms. Dawn Hastings-Williams.

Django
Last edited by Django
Django posted:
yuji22 posted:
Django posted:
yuji22 posted:
 
 Notice how Zero Indians were included in the discussions ?

 

brazilguyana

 

Blind as a bat who is sitting left of Granger ?

Show us the proof na ? Dat is a Dougla there.

Yep Prak tun Dougla.

Show us proof that it is Prak/Crack nah ? Until then, Chup. 

Why was Moses not allowed to attend ?

FM
Last edited by Former Member
yuji22 posted:
Django posted:
yuji22 posted:
Django posted:
yuji22 posted:
 
 Notice how Zero Indians were included in the discussions ?

 

brazilguyana

 

Blind as a bat who is sitting left of Granger ?

Show us the proof na ? Dat is a Dougla there.

Yep Prak tun Dougla.

Show us proof that it is Prak/Crack nah ? Until then, Chup. 

Why was Moses not allowed to attend ?

The President’s team included Minister of Foreign Affairs, Mr. Carl Greenidge, Minister of State, Mr. Joseph Harmon, Minister of Public Security, Mr. Khemraj Ramjattan, Attorney General, Mr. Basil Williams, Minister of Public Infrastructure, Mr. David Patterson, Minister of Natural Resources, Mr. Raphael Trotman, Minister of Citizenship, Mr. Winston Felix, Minister of Finance, Mr. Winston Jordan and Minister of Public Affairs, Ms. Dawn Hastings-Williams.

 

Ketch yuh bed now,maybe you getting drowsy.

Django
yuji22 posted:
Django posted:
yuji22 posted:
Django posted:
yuji22 posted:
 
 Notice how Zero Indians were included in the discussions ?

 

brazilguyana

 

Blind as a bat who is sitting left of Granger ?

Show us the proof na ? Dat is a Dougla there.

Yep Prak tun Dougla.

Show us proof that it is Prak/Crack nah ? Until then, Chup. 

Why was Moses not allowed to attend ?

Like you forget he is Iceland. 

Mitwah
Django posted:
yuji22 posted:
Django posted:
yuji22 posted:
Django posted:
yuji22 posted:
 
 Notice how Zero Indians were included in the discussions ?

 

brazilguyana

 

Blind as a bat who is sitting left of Granger ?

Show us the proof na ? Dat is a Dougla there.

Yep Prak tun Dougla.

Show us proof that it is Prak/Crack nah ? Until then, Chup. 

Why was Moses not allowed to attend ?

The President’s team included Minister of Foreign Affairs, Mr. Carl Greenidge, Minister of State, Mr. Joseph Harmon, Minister of Public Security, Mr. Khemraj Ramjattan, Attorney General, Mr. Basil Williams, Minister of Public Infrastructure, Mr. David Patterson, Minister of Natural Resources, Mr. Raphael Trotman, Minister of Citizenship, Mr. Winston Felix, Minister of Finance, Mr. Winston Jordan and Minister of Public Affairs, Ms. Dawn Hastings-Williams.

 

Ketch yuh bed now,maybe you getting drowsy.

LOL! Yugi got owned by Django. 

Mitwah
Mitwah posted:
Django posted:
yuji22 posted:
Django posted:
yuji22 posted:
Django posted:
yuji22 posted:
 
 Notice how Zero Indians were included in the discussions ?

 

brazilguyana

 

Blind as a bat who is sitting left of Granger ?

Show us the proof na ? Dat is a Dougla there.

Yep Prak tun Dougla.

Show us proof that it is Prak/Crack nah ? Until then, Chup. 

Why was Moses not allowed to attend ?

The President’s team included Minister of Foreign Affairs, Mr. Carl Greenidge, Minister of State, Mr. Joseph Harmon, Minister of Public Security, Mr. Khemraj Ramjattan, Attorney General, Mr. Basil Williams, Minister of Public Infrastructure, Mr. David Patterson, Minister of Natural Resources, Mr. Raphael Trotman, Minister of Citizenship, Mr. Winston Felix, Minister of Finance, Mr. Winston Jordan and Minister of Public Affairs, Ms. Dawn Hastings-Williams.

 

Ketch yuh bed now,maybe you getting drowsy.

LOL! Yugi got owned by Django. 

That was added by the media after they realized that there was no Indo present. As usual, they used the name of one of their footstools to avoid embarrassment. 

People are no longer buying PNC snake oil.

Reason that Moses is not there is that there are PNC's allegations that he is leaking PNC secrets to his old time friends in the PPP and is negotiating to run under the PPP ticket in 2020 but Jagdeo told him to take a hike.

Poor Moses. Granger will replace him with Prak. Congress Place is cooking Indo cook up rice.

FM
Last edited by Former Member
yuji22 posted:
 

That was added by the media after they realized that there was no Indo present. As usual, they used the name of one of their footstools to avoid embarrassment. 

People are no longer buying PNC snake oil.

Reason that Moses is not there is that there are PNC's allegations that he is leaking PNC secrets to his old time friends in the PPP and is negotiating to run under the PPP ticket in 2020 but Jagdeo told him to take a hike.

Poor Moses. Granger will replace him with Prak.

Banna,keep that spin for the kindergartners.

Your hero ain't seeing office any more,he will retreat like a beaten dog with his tail between his legs.

Django
Mitwah posted:

Venezueala is cash strapped. The PPP kept them at bay by feeding them rice. 

Maybe so, but they have the assets and military infrastructure in place to do it if they so wish. I can envision them using the military to strengthen their hands if they believe any ruling in ICJ may not favor them.  

The venezuelan claim is much more deep seated than that of Suriname.  They have been teaching it in schools for a generation and the people believe it’s only a matter of time!

Expect upheaval in Venezuela with any pro Guyana ruling!

Baseman
Last edited by Baseman
Baseman posted:
Mitwah posted:

Venezueala is cash strapped. The PPP kept them at bay by feeding them rice. 

Maybe so, but they have the assets and military infrastructure in place to do it if they so wish. I can envision them using the military to strengthen their hands if they believe any ruling in ICJ may not favor them.  

The venezuelan claim is much more deep seated than that of Suriname.  They have been teaching it in schools for a generation and the people believe it’s only a matter of time!

Expect upheaval in Venezuela with any pro Guyana ruling!

They can teach what the hell they want in schools or anyway else. Still cant maintain an invasion force. If they could, they would had done so long ago when their economy was much better. The only thing they could in my opinion is send troops to the border and gunboats up the Cayuni as a show of force. But that's where it stops.

Sheik101

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