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May 19 2019

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Just before the May 2015 general election (SN May 6, 2015), I wrote a Development Watch column asking whether the PPP/C will be able to suck cane and blow whistle. I made the point that even though the PPP has always attracted a sizable percentage of multi-ethnic voters, it was pursuing an election strategy of scaring its East Indian base into voting for it. The scare strategy had to do with repeating old perceived and factual wrongs committed by the PNC. This is a tried and tested strategy of ethnic mobilization of a political base. The PNC, of course, also has its own strategies for mobilizing and keeping its vote bank in one place.

In that column – ‘Can the PPP suck cane and blow whistle’ – I looked at data measuring party identification from the 2014 Latin American Public Opinion Project (LAPOP) survey. As a reminder, this is a political survey which is done by researchers associated with Vanderbilt University in the United States. In my opinion, it is an impartial and credible survey. Typically the researchers randomly select about 1500 Guyanese assigned to various group stratifications. When I did the column in 2015, I argued that there was a high probability the PPP will not win the election. For that, I received my usual share of cursing from letter writers and bloggers. Nevertheless, one pro-PPP letter writer with merit argued the poll was outdated since the survey was done in 2014.

In this column, I will revisit the LAPOP data – this time for the survey completed in 2016. The researchers are no longer summarizing the results in reports. We have to mine the data using a statistical software. These days the dataset is placed online in SPSS or Stata files. There are several important results from business confidence, trust in political institutions, political party identification, voting patterns, voter turnout, gender-based measures and others. For the purpose of this essay, I will look at the following by ethnicity: (i) voters’ party choice in the May 2015 election; (ii) party identification; (iii) vote intention in the next presidential election; and (iv) political interest.

It is obvious that the no-confidence vote (NCV) has hardened political views since this survey was conducted at the middle of 2016, just over one year after the APNU+AFC coalition formed the government. However, the lack of forbearance involved in the NCV is not necessarily worse than the limited forbearance demonstrated by the PNC and AFC while they were in opposition after the 2011 election. The latter two parties played a strategy of complete obstruction and undermining of the previous incumbent regardless of what the then government proposed. Mr Jagdeo’s PPP is playing a similar strategy of undermining and obstructing no matter what the government does. Indeed, the PNC’s strategy of obstructing and undermining started as early as 1995 for the post-1992 period. As I have noted in previous columns, the NCV represents a continuation of a tit-for-tat strategy of undermining the incumbent. The political structure enabled by the constitution makes losing the grand prize of the executive costly to the ethnic loser. The point here is the seriousness of the political division after the NCV is not necessarily more intense compared with what prevailed during the PPP’s term. This means there could be persistence in the survey results given the long-term divisions. We should therefore not be too eager to dismiss the sample that was done some time ago.

It should also be noted that when this sample was conducted, the APNU+AFC government had already made several important miscalculations such as the 50% salary increase. We have to balance this and other misdeeds (such as the unilateral appointment of the GECOM chairman) with the choice of presidential candidate of the PPP. We also should bear in mind the propensity of both the Jagdeoian PPP and PNC to bend the institutions and legal structure of the land. Both parties have used the courts and Parliament in recent times to pursue their mutual tit-for-tat strategies. Not because it is legal to challenge the term limit of the constitution means it is the right thing to do. It is legal to propose a vote of no-confidence – whether the PPP one last year or the one planned by AFC and PNC that elicited a prorogation – but is it the right thing to do in an ethnically divided country? Political scientists have emphasized that a democracy needs not just a democratic constitution, but also forbearance on the part of politicians. Not because something is legal means it is also the right thing to do in a given context.

Given these caveats, let us consider the results generated from the online data. The survey says that the PPP received 70.1% of the East Indian votes; while 29.1% indicated that they voted for the APNU+AFC. At 99%, African Guyanese voted overwhelmingly for the coalition. Amerindians responded at a 59.9% voting rate for the coalition compared with 40.1% for the PPP/C. The mixed population voted 88.3% in favour of APNU+AFC and 11.7% for PPP.

Interestingly, 162 East Indians in the sample indicated no response, compared with 67 African Guyanese. Making a few assumptions would tend to suggest that approximately 80% East Indians voted for PPP and around 94% of African Guyanese voted for APNU + AFC. The LAPOP survey of 2014, to which I alluded above, had data on party identification, which is not the same as how people actually voted. Nevertheless, the 2014 sample indicated that 83.5 of East Indians identified with PPP/C and 89.3% African Guyanese with PNCR. In addition, with respect to associating with AFC, 15.3% East Indians associated with AFC, 4% African Guyanese and 19% mixed Guyanese indicated an association with the independent party. Therefore, we can conclude that the party identification in 2014 largely corresponds with how people voted in 2016. Hence, the data tends to suggest there is a lot of persistence and entrenchment of voting choice in Guyana. Nevertheless, the base support of the PPP/C ranges from 70% to 80% in the 2016 survey. Hence, the PPP’s base is a lot more wobbly than the PNCR’s. Mr. Jagdeo and his group are banking on all the Berbice vote going back home. There could be a lot of surprise coming for the group which has captured the PPP. Hopefully, the 2018 LAPOP survey will be released soon so we can have a more definitive measure. 

Another useful piece of information coming out from the 2016 LAPOP survey is the percentage of people from different groups which voted. Mixed voters had the highest turnout at 79.1%, Amerindians 72.7%, African Guyanese 81.5%, and East Indians 83.1%. Statistically, therefore, there is not a big difference between the voter turnouts for the two largest ethnic groups. This implies that it was the approximately 15% to 20% of East Indians who voted against the PPP/C which along with the relatively higher percentage support the coalition received from Amerindians and mixed voters which tipped the scale in favour of APNU+AFC. Can the coalition keep these likely swing voters? Would a large percentage of East Indians go back to the PPP? Would many East Indians decide to stay at home this time? Would the swing voters vote for a new third party, ANUG? Would the rural East Indian voters of AFC stay home or move back to the PPP/C?

We still have to discuss how people are expected to vote in the next election and the political interest of each group. I will pick this up in next week’s column.

Comments: tkhemraj@ncf.edu

 

Replies sorted oldest to newest

"The survey says that the PPP received 70.1% of the East Indian votes; while 29.1% indicated that they voted for the APNU+AFC. At 99%, African Guyanese voted overwhelmingly for the coalition. Amerindians responded at a 59.9% voting rate for the coalition compared with 40.1% for the PPP/C. The mixed population voted 88.3% in favour of APNU+AFC and 11.7% for PPP."

Yet these fools like to moan and groan that Indo Guyanese are racists. Y'all keep clutching to that losing argument. It is y'all own funeral.

FM
ksazma posted:

"The survey says that the PPP received 70.1% of the East Indian votes; while 29.1% indicated that they voted for the APNU+AFC. At 99%, African Guyanese voted overwhelmingly for the coalition. Amerindians responded at a 59.9% voting rate for the coalition compared with 40.1% for the PPP/C. The mixed population voted 88.3% in favour of APNU+AFC and 11.7% for PPP."

Yet these fools like to moan and groan that Indo Guyanese are racists. Y'all keep clutching to that losing argument. It is y'all own funeral.

Interesting statistics....depending on its reliability it explains why the PPP lost the election and it does suggest that some Indians are willing to "split" their vote.... 

V
VishMahabir posted:
ksazma posted:

"The survey says that the PPP received 70.1% of the East Indian votes; while 29.1% indicated that they voted for the APNU+AFC. At 99%, African Guyanese voted overwhelmingly for the coalition. Amerindians responded at a 59.9% voting rate for the coalition compared with 40.1% for the PPP/C. The mixed population voted 88.3% in favour of APNU+AFC and 11.7% for PPP."

Yet these fools like to moan and groan that Indo Guyanese are racists. Y'all keep clutching to that losing argument. It is y'all own funeral.

Interesting statistics....depending on its reliability it explains why the PPP lost the election and it does suggest that some Indians are willing to "split" their vote.... 

More significantly, it demonstrates the almost complete tribalistic tendencies of Afro-Guyanese. Then they embarrass themselves further by moaning and groaning about racism. But truth to life, their moaning and groaning is progressively being ignored.

FM
Billy Ram Balgobin posted:

The PNC has to be better at the "Apaan Jaat" game if they actually captured 94% of the Afro-Guyanese votes.  

Dem one love PNC/WPA bais does do dem apaan jaat quiet. We bai Jagdoe does go and shout he wan at babu Jaan while he giving everybady house lot. Hey hey hey...

FM
Labba posted:
Billy Ram Balgobin posted:

The PNC has to be better at the "Apaan Jaat" game if they actually captured 94% of the Afro-Guyanese votes.  

Dem one love PNC/WPA bais does do dem apaan jaat quiet. We bai Jagdoe does go and shout he wan at babu Jaan while he giving everybady house lot. Hey hey hey...

Still better to be careless than to be a hypocrite.

FM
ksazma posted:
Labba posted:
Billy Ram Balgobin posted:

The PNC has to be better at the "Apaan Jaat" game if they actually captured 94% of the Afro-Guyanese votes.  

Dem one love PNC/WPA bais does do dem apaan jaat quiet. We bai Jagdoe does go and shout he wan at babu Jaan while he giving everybady house lot. Hey hey hey...

Still better to be careless than to be a hypocrite.

Yes bai...good point...good point. 

FM

This dunce cap wearing TK trying fuh seh dat he predict pnc victory based on data. But the fact is that most didn't need a survey to tell that the PPP had fallen from grace, especially with an incompetent rumoutar at the helm. 

FM
Last edited by Former Member

Hey hey hey...Mr TK seh how Irfaan is de man for de base. De man seh how PNC does race bait wid dem ACDA bais...hey hey hey.

===========================

The previous column utilized data from the 2016 Latin American Public Opinion Project (LAPOP) survey to gauge how people voted in the 2015 general election. I argued that if there is persistence in voting behaviour in Guyana, then the somewhat dated survey (mid-2016) could still be relevant for present analyses. The previous column discussed the percentage voter turnout for Afro-Guyanese, East Indians, Amerindians and mixed-Guyanese, as well as the “ethnic market share” of each of the main political parties. The survey shows – as do the previous ones in the post-1992 era – that there is a strong correlation between ethnicity and voting. Over the years, I have called this outcome strategic pro-ethnic voting. There is a “market” of around 12%, perhaps 15%, of independent swing voters. The same pattern was observed by Professor Ralph Premdas for earlier elections. He had a comprehensive study of the 1961 election in a book he published in 1995.

Persistence in pro-ethnic voting could occur because most people believe that their economic and cultural interests are dependent on leaders of their respective group winning the election. Intra-group social networks are strong in Guyana, resulting in the connection of opportunities for gaining jobs in the civil service, a house lot, the contract to clean drains in a locality, a government scholarship, rent-seeking endeavours and other goodies.

On the other hand, the political leaders themselves have to pursue strategies (make a credible commitment) that assure their respective base voters the goodies are coming if they can only vote for their traditional party. Over the years, I have outlined (as did others) how the PPP has mobilized its base by scaring it into conformity. However, in terms of actual deliverance, the PPP destroyed – by policy choice – the livelihood of its working class base while enriching a small group connected to the party.

On the other hand, the PNC’s strategy focuses explicitly on keeping heightened expectation of economic benefits that will flow to its base if it does not split its votes. Two recent examples are in order. Firstly, we now have the famous case of a senior member of the APNU+AFC government and PNC Chairperson, Ms. Volda Lawrence, stating: “the only friends I got is PNC, so the only people I could give work to is PNC” (S.N. 30/11/2018). Now, this is setting up the expectation that if African-Guyanese do not want to be marginalized by some other group they have to stay with the PNC. On the issue of marginalization, I have repeatedly called for data (I really don’t understand what Mr. Jagdeo’s minions are doing) comparing the ethnic distribution of house lots and home ownership during the PPP period and the housing distribution under the previous PNC administration (which Mr. C. B. Greenidge talked about in his book).

Most times, and secondly, the PNCR outsources its ethnic mobilization – last week we saw to ACDA. The Guyana Chronicle (GC) reported a case in which senior PNC member, Mr. Vincent Alexander, is leading the charge in connecting reparations and ancestral land reclamation. I thought these were different issues, but connecting them provides a clever backdoor signalling mechanism for base mobilization (G.C. 21/05/2019). In addition, Demerara Waves reported online that senior ACDA leaders perceive East-Indian control of NDCs, which is supposedly preventing a thriving system of African village economies (D.W. 19/05/2019).

The news report in Guyana Chronicle tried to be measured, but it fails to account for factors in economic history, geography and ecology that stymied the African village movement after emancipation. I will not repeat them here as they are in several of my columns and academic papers; suffice to say, Mr. Eric Phillips thinks that 18% of Guyana’s landmass would do wonders for propelling African village economies. Two sticking points, however, are the entire coastal plain where slavery, indenture and the plantation economy existed is less than 5% of the land area of Guyana and total arable land is approximately 8%. Therefore, I have to conclude that this episode reads more like a base mobilization strategy meant to shape expectations or reward if the PNC is in power and fear of the other. As I have said in the past, there is something to the ancestral land claims. It must be addressed, but there has to be some serious historical accounts – not the kind of history pointing out who suffered more than whom.

Last week, I discussed how voters said they voted in 2015 and the rate of turnout by different groups. Let us first take a look at party identification of potential voters using the 2016 survey. Amerindians associate with the APNU+AFC at a rate of 58% compared with 42% for the PPP/C. These numbers are fairly close to how they said they voted in 2015 (see previous column). African Guyanese associate with APNU+AFC at a rate of 97.1% compared with 2.2% for PPP/C, again reflecting closely how they indicated they voted. East Indians associate with the PPP/C at a rate of 67.1% compared with 32.9% for APNU+AFC. The 32.9% is slightly above the 29% who said they voted for the coalition. However, as noted in the previous column there should be some adjustments for those who provided no response to the question asking how people voted.

Regardless of how one thinks about these numbers, they do not confirm the claim from some quarters that East Indians did not support the coalition at a rate sufficient to win. There might be a price to pay as well for the attempts to belittle (and disrespect) the contribution of East Indians in the AFC (and outside) to the PNC’s ability to hold power. In 2015, I made a comment that value is often created on the margin. The PNC Facebook folks thought I was being racially insensitive. They are usually projecting psychologically, however. Perhaps these active supporters will get the meaning of marginalism if there is a free and fair election next year.

Mixed voters indicated an association rate of 92.5% with the APNU+AFC and 7.5% with the PPP. In the 2014 LAPOP survey, mixed voters associated with the PPP at a rate of 22%, AFC at 18.9% and PNC at 54.1%. If this trend is accurate, the PPP has lost significant support from mixed Guyanese.

Another useful set of data points from the LAPOP survey pertain to how people are expected to vote in the next presidential election. This is perhaps the most unstable part of the LAPOP data set. Nevertheless, I will discuss them since they provide some information one year out from the 2015 general election. In general, this aspect of the survey suggests the PPP’s base is a lot more wobbly than that of the PNC’s. For example, 10.8% of African Guyanese indicated that they will not vote in the next general election, compared with 19.8% for the PPP/C. Mixed Guyanese and Amerindians suggested that 16.2% and 14.4%, respectively, would not vote in the next election.

Interestingly, just 39.1% of East Indians said they will vote for a party different from APNU+AFC (read PPP/C), while only 3.1% African Guyanese mentioned they will vote for another party. Therefore, one year out, a significantly larger percentage of East Indians said they will split their votes compared with the Afro-Guyanese population. Mixed Guyanese and Amerindians indicate at a rate of 10.4% and 13.2%, respectively, that they will vote for a party different than the incumbent coalition.

Given that we are just under a year away from elections, the moving variables are the Irfaan Ali candidacy (a man for the rural base!), divisions associated with the NCV, the capture of the PPP, and the two new and credible third parties – ANUG and Mr. Shuman’s party. Mr. Jagdeo and his like-minded group should consider that getting back the Berbice votes might not be enough. The like-minded group should also consider that a structural break started in 2011, as well as the fact that a reformed PPP/C can get the Berbice votes and the urban East Indian ones.

 

Copyright © 2017 Stabroek News. All rights reserved.

FM
yuji22 posted:

TK missed one important observation. The PPP won LGE but almost 30,000 votes. 

Hey Hey Hey

Hey hey hey...de man Mr TK head hard foh true...de doan know we winning de general with 30000 vote foh spare. De man only gat book sense...no steet sense. Hey hey hey.

FM
yuji22 posted:

According to TK stats, Blackman prappa clannish. 97 percent of dem will vote PNC despite white mouth and wapia. 

Hey Hey Hey

Do BJ and his top guys approve your vile language and nasty racism? 

FM

What is working about pointing out that Guyanese Blackman vote 97 percent PNC despite hardships including white mouth and wapia ? 

97 percent of a particular group of people voting for a party like they do for PNC is clannish. Carib always attack indos as being clannish when in fact, TK proved him wrong. 

Many Guyanese suffered white mouth and Waipia under PNC part one and it has returned under PNC part 2. No different. 

I am entitled to express my right to free speech. Amral stated that the term Blackman is quite acceptable. Indos are addressed as coolies right here at GNI with no reservations. 

I do not speak for nor do I represent the PPP. 

FM
Last edited by Former Member

Indeed the study showed that while a large segment of the Indian population will support a predominantly black Coalition, blacks almost completely only support the predominantly black party and will not even consider supporting a non black party.

FM
ksazma posted:
VishMahabir posted:
ksazma posted:

"The survey says that the PPP received 70.1% of the East Indian votes; while 29.1% indicated that they voted for the APNU+AFC. At 99%, African Guyanese voted overwhelmingly for the coalition. Amerindians responded at a 59.9% voting rate for the coalition compared with 40.1% for the PPP/C. The mixed population voted 88.3% in favour of APNU+AFC and 11.7% for PPP."

Yet these fools like to moan and groan that Indo Guyanese are racists. Y'all keep clutching to that losing argument. It is y'all own funeral.

Interesting statistics....depending on its reliability it explains why the PPP lost the election and it does suggest that some Indians are willing to "split" their vote.... 

More significantly, it demonstrates the almost complete tribalistic tendencies of Afro-Guyanese. Then they embarrass themselves further by moaning and groaning about racism. But truth to life, their moaning and groaning is progressively being ignored.

 

ksazma posted:

"The survey says that the PPP received 70.1% of the East Indian votes; while 29.1% indicated that they voted for the APNU+AFC. At 99%, African Guyanese voted overwhelmingly for the coalition. Amerindians responded at a 59.9% voting rate for the coalition compared with 40.1% for the PPP/C. The mixed population voted 88.3% in favour of APNU+AFC and 11.7% for PPP."

Yet these fools like to moan and groan that Indo Guyanese are racists. Y'all keep clutching to that losing argument. It is y'all own funeral.

They voted for Nagamootoo so your theory of non racist voting doesn't hold true.  Their support was based on Nagamootoo telling them that he would be able to control the PNC (blackman). 

Indos and Afro/mixed vote their racial fears.  That is if they bother to vote.  And in fact those who do vote probably have a higher level of ethnic fear which motivates their vote/

FM

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