Ouster…

…by the people
Evo Morales has been ousted as Bolivia’s President and has fled to Mexico where he’s been given asylum. An ignominious ending for a regime that moved its country from being the sick man of South America to its fastest-growing economy for the last decade. One where 1 million persons were lifted out of poverty since 2005 when Morales took over and cut the poverty rate – admittedly still high – by 25%. A regime which was the first to be run by Indigenous peoples and directed developmental efforts to that community.
So imagine that such a regime could be ejected and, yet, here in Guyana, David Granger – who has allowed the economy to drift aimlessly and is causing the business climate to stagnate – is boasting that he’ll increase his party’s parliamentary seats by at least 10% to 36 seats!! Either he’s taking medicinal marijuana, those opioids that have become so popular, or he has something up his sleeve!!
So why was Morales ousted if he did so well by the usual economic metrics?? Very simply, he overreached when he refused to accept the Constitution’s restriction on presidential terms and railroaded the system to place him on the ballot. And isn’t Granger committing the equivalent constitutional sin here?? Wasn’t he supposed to resign immediately upon the passing of the NCM and call elections in three months? But like Morales, he’s filled with hubris and seized with a messianic complex, which convinces him he’s the only one meant to rule Guyana.
But what raised the ire of the people – and like Guyana, Bolivian society is very polarised and his majority wasn’t that massive – was when Morales had the Elections Commission halt the count halfway after the parties were running neck-to-neck. Upon resumption, Morales’ party amazingly shot ahead by the 10% majority necessary to not have a run-off election!! The people poured out in their numbers in the streets with increasingly heightened anger at Morales’ high handedness with their franchise.
And once again, we see the parallels with what’s unfolding in Guyana under David Granger, who refuses to accept his caretaker status now that he’s bullied his way to a year beyond the 3 months he was given by the Constitution on December 21, 2018. From the beginning, we knew the GECOM Secretariat was controlled by the PNC and with the decisions the new Chair has been making, the Commission’s also in their hands. To mess around with the computers in GECOM (like Morales) and deliver a PNC victory after March 2 is only ONE of the ways in which the PNC’s fix is in.
The people will have to be ready to protest this PNC-rigged power-grab!!

…from the oil league?
In the oil business, there’s a lot that can slip between the cup and the lip. When the British oil company Tullow announced two strikes not far from the Exxon consortium’s finds off our shores, their stock went through the roof. They’d been struggling with technical issues over in Ghana. Not unreasonably, their reaction was, “happy days were here again” since the Exxon finds were all light, sweet (low sulphur) oil that’s easy to extract and refine. And is sold for top prices – presently@ $56/bbl.
Tullow, however, just announced that its finds are heavy sour crude (with high sulphur content). This is far costlier to extract and refine. It presently sells @$32/bbl– and may not be worth extracting. The moment Tullow announced the news, its stocks fell by more than one-quarter of its value – 27%!! – on the London Stock market yesterday.
The question is whether there’s something to Energy Czar Bynoe’s off the cuff remark about “quality concerns” with the Exxon finds.
Heavy sour crude?? If so, what’ll Granger promise now??

…of Troy?
Troy Resources is one of the largest gold miners in Guyana but it’s fallen on hard times. Primarily from poor prospects going forward and some local deadly mining accidents.
What does Granger say to the loss of jobs and income?