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August 27, 2015

August 26, 2015

Ayotte/Hassan a Toss Up; Clinton/Sanders Generally Lead GOP Field

PPP's newest New Hampshire Senate poll continues to find that a contest between Kelly Ayotte and Maggie Hassan would start out as a toss up. Ayotte gets 44% to 43% for Hassan, making this the third time this year we've polled this match up and found the candidates within one point of each other.

Hassan (48/42 approval) is actually more popular than Ayotte (38/46 approval). But a big part of what drives Ayotte's approval numbers down is that she's at only 64/25 with Republicans. She still leads Hassan 81/12 with Republicans in a head to head though, so most of those GOP voters who aren't happy with her still prefer her to a Democratic alternative. The reason for Ayotte's ever so modest advantage is that she gets 14% of Democrats compared to Hassan's 12% of Republicans. Ayotte would lead Chris Pappas 45/31 in a hypothetical contest.

Democrats lead 14 out of 15 of the general election match ups we tested in the state. The strongest Republican is John Kasich, who leads Hillary Clinton 43/41. While the rest of the Republican hopefuls trail with independents, Kasich ties her with them at 38%. And Kasich is also winning over 14% of the Democratic vote to Clinton's 10% of Democrats.

2 other Republicans come close to Clinton in the state. Her lead over Donald Trump is just 2 points at 46/44, and her advantage over Carly Fiorina is 3 points at 45/42. On the other side of the spectrum Clinton has double digit leads against Rand Paul (10 points at 47/37), Ted Cruz (11 points at 49/38), and Mike Huckabee (13 points at 49/36). Everyone else Clinton leads by 7 or 8 points- 46/39 over Jeb Bush, 46/38 over Chris Christie, 47/39 over Marco Rubio and Scott Walker, and 48/40 over Ben Carson.

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