APNU can clinch presidency, no clear parliamentary majority-- opinion poll
Written by Denis Scott Chabrol DEMERARA WAVES
Monday, 21 November 2011 16:01
The opposition coalition A Partnership for National Unity (APNU) on Monday said an opinion poll it commissioned shows that it can capture at least 40 percent of the popular vote, but not enough to give it a working 51 percent parliamentary majority.
APNU member, Dr. David Pollard made the announcement at the coalition’s news conference.
Professor Clive Thomas said that figure meant that APNU would emerge as the “leading party” in the November 28 regional and general election.
“For the sample APNU emerges as the preferred party for the upcoming elections. The results also reveal our Presidential and Prime Ministerial Candidates enjoy a very high standing among the electorate with a great demand for them to visit several communities,” the coalition said in a statement.
Thomas said there was a 10 percent gap between the APNU and a second party.
If the poll is factual that means that APNU would secure the presidency but not even a 51 percent simple majority control of the 65-seat National Assembly to comfortably pass laws including the National Budget. The president may choose to appoint a power-sharing cabinet or leave the passage of laws up to negotiations among the parties.
The APNU-commissioned poll predicts an 87.5 percent voter turnout compared to 69 percent in 2006. The coalition said the poll was conducted among 935 persons in Regions Two, Three, Four, Five, Six and Ten.
The racial makeup of the vast majority of the respondents, as determined by them, was 37% African- Guyanese; 35% Indian- Guyanese; 6% Amerindian; and 20% Mixed.
60.8% of the respondents had a secondary level of education or higher; the vast majority of the remainder had a primary or community level of education.
Coalition officials refused to divulged the name of the pollster, instead preferring to stick with the description of an “independent Caribbean-based consultancy” “We cannot, for reason of confidentiality, reveal the name of the consultant. That’s one of the terms of the agreement,” he said.
Professor Clive Thomas also declined to answer a number of questions about the opinion poll, saying that APNU preferred not to disclose certain information that could be used by its opponents. He also refused to say what the ranking of the other parties is.
“As you would realize, we cannot be expected to do a poll that would aid our competitors so we are very careful in the amount of information that we are releasing,” said Thomas.
The questions included which areas and communities where there needed to be greater effort and concentration and what types of improved means of communication were recommended. He deemed several of those questions “unfair”
“I don’t think its fair for us to tell you the margin of difference between us and the other parties because we do not want to create an incentive for them or a disincentive for ourselves but we are making the point that we don’t want to rest on our laurels,” he said.
APNU says the distribution of the surveys was was 35.6 percent in Region Four; 21.8% in Region Six; 10.8% in Regions Two and Three; 10.6% in Region 10 and 10.4% in Region Five.
The population of those sampled was 34.5% in the age group 26 – 40; 29.4% in age group 41 – 60; 22% in the age group 18 – 25; and 12.7% in the age group 60+. The gender distribution of respondents was basically equal.
76.2% of the sample held active employment and 7.8% were retirees
Written by Denis Scott Chabrol DEMERARA WAVES
Monday, 21 November 2011 16:01
The opposition coalition A Partnership for National Unity (APNU) on Monday said an opinion poll it commissioned shows that it can capture at least 40 percent of the popular vote, but not enough to give it a working 51 percent parliamentary majority.
APNU member, Dr. David Pollard made the announcement at the coalition’s news conference.
Professor Clive Thomas said that figure meant that APNU would emerge as the “leading party” in the November 28 regional and general election.
“For the sample APNU emerges as the preferred party for the upcoming elections. The results also reveal our Presidential and Prime Ministerial Candidates enjoy a very high standing among the electorate with a great demand for them to visit several communities,” the coalition said in a statement.
Thomas said there was a 10 percent gap between the APNU and a second party.
If the poll is factual that means that APNU would secure the presidency but not even a 51 percent simple majority control of the 65-seat National Assembly to comfortably pass laws including the National Budget. The president may choose to appoint a power-sharing cabinet or leave the passage of laws up to negotiations among the parties.
The APNU-commissioned poll predicts an 87.5 percent voter turnout compared to 69 percent in 2006. The coalition said the poll was conducted among 935 persons in Regions Two, Three, Four, Five, Six and Ten.
The racial makeup of the vast majority of the respondents, as determined by them, was 37% African- Guyanese; 35% Indian- Guyanese; 6% Amerindian; and 20% Mixed.
60.8% of the respondents had a secondary level of education or higher; the vast majority of the remainder had a primary or community level of education.
Coalition officials refused to divulged the name of the pollster, instead preferring to stick with the description of an “independent Caribbean-based consultancy” “We cannot, for reason of confidentiality, reveal the name of the consultant. That’s one of the terms of the agreement,” he said.
Professor Clive Thomas also declined to answer a number of questions about the opinion poll, saying that APNU preferred not to disclose certain information that could be used by its opponents. He also refused to say what the ranking of the other parties is.
“As you would realize, we cannot be expected to do a poll that would aid our competitors so we are very careful in the amount of information that we are releasing,” said Thomas.
The questions included which areas and communities where there needed to be greater effort and concentration and what types of improved means of communication were recommended. He deemed several of those questions “unfair”
“I don’t think its fair for us to tell you the margin of difference between us and the other parties because we do not want to create an incentive for them or a disincentive for ourselves but we are making the point that we don’t want to rest on our laurels,” he said.
APNU says the distribution of the surveys was was 35.6 percent in Region Four; 21.8% in Region Six; 10.8% in Regions Two and Three; 10.6% in Region 10 and 10.4% in Region Five.
The population of those sampled was 34.5% in the age group 26 – 40; 29.4% in age group 41 – 60; 22% in the age group 18 – 25; and 12.7% in the age group 60+. The gender distribution of respondents was basically equal.
76.2% of the sample held active employment and 7.8% were retirees
