Thursday, 17 November 2011 04:29
PPP/C ahead
… APNU consolidates, AFC siphons off PPP support
AN opinion poll, conducted by the North American Caribbean Teachers Association last week to track popular support for the political parties on the November 28 general elections, showed the incumbent PPP/C is still ahead of the two main challengers. However, both APNU and AFC are making gains with APNU consolidating its former PNC base, as AFC siphons off votes from the PPP. The UF is trailing way behind and is not making a significant showing.
NACTA, founded in New York by Caribbean educators, has no affiliation with any political party and has been conducting opinion surveys regularly in Guyana, the Caribbean and other regions for 20 years.
The latest Guyana poll was conducted in face- to-face interviews with 560 voters representing the varied demographics of the population (44% Indians, 30% Africans, 16% Mixed, 9% Amerindians, and 1% other races). The survey was coordinated by Vishnu Bisram, a pollster, newspaper columnist, political analyst and an educator in NY, and who has been conducting field surveys polls in Guyana since 1989.
The results of last week’s poll were analysed at a 95% significance level and a statistical sampling error of plus or minus five percentage points was found. Sampling results based on each subgroup (such as Indians, Africans, Mixed, Amerindians) has a larger sampling error.
Asked which party they will vote for, 50% of the sample said PPP/C, followed by 30% APNU, 11% AFC, less than 1% TUF, and almost 9% undecided. With a margin of error of 5%, support could vary in either direction meaning, for example, that PPP could poll up to 55%.
The findings show APNU has been successful in attracting the traditional PNC support; AFC has lost some of the gains it made among the PNC base with many Africans and Mixed returning to APNU (equated as PNC among the population); APNU is targeting and consolidating the PNC base; AFC is making significant gains among traditional PPP/C supporters, threatening the PPP/C’s hold on a majority in parliament. Supporters of the PPP say the AFC has adopted a strategy of focusing the preponderance of their resources in traditional PPP areas as the party has ceased to gain support among PNC strongholds.
If AFC continues to take support away from PPP/C, the election could be a closer fight between PPP/C and APNU.
The outcome of the election will depend on voter turnout. There is a high level of apathy among the voters, with a large number of them saying they will not vote. The undecided voters could very well decide the fate of the parties.
Voters were also asked whether Moses Nagamootoo, the PPP stalwart who resigned from the party two weeks ago, will make a difference for AFC. There were mixed responses. APNU supporters believe Nagamootoo will divide the traditional PPP support, enabling APNU to win a plurality. AFC supporters are confident that Moses can attract enough support to deny the PPP 50%. The former PPP stalwart is enormously popular among the PPP rank and file, and it is primarily through him that the AFC is making gains among the PPP base.
Voters were also asked which party is likely to win the election. There were divided opinions: 44% said the PPP/C will win the Presidency as well as a majority of votes; an additional 21% said the PPP will win the Presidency but not a majority of votes; 30% said no party will win a majority of votes.
With the election some two weeks away from when the latest poll was conducted, opinions could change by then. NACTA will conduct another poll from this weekend.
PPP/C ahead
… APNU consolidates, AFC siphons off PPP support
AN opinion poll, conducted by the North American Caribbean Teachers Association last week to track popular support for the political parties on the November 28 general elections, showed the incumbent PPP/C is still ahead of the two main challengers. However, both APNU and AFC are making gains with APNU consolidating its former PNC base, as AFC siphons off votes from the PPP. The UF is trailing way behind and is not making a significant showing.
NACTA, founded in New York by Caribbean educators, has no affiliation with any political party and has been conducting opinion surveys regularly in Guyana, the Caribbean and other regions for 20 years.
The latest Guyana poll was conducted in face- to-face interviews with 560 voters representing the varied demographics of the population (44% Indians, 30% Africans, 16% Mixed, 9% Amerindians, and 1% other races). The survey was coordinated by Vishnu Bisram, a pollster, newspaper columnist, political analyst and an educator in NY, and who has been conducting field surveys polls in Guyana since 1989.
The results of last week’s poll were analysed at a 95% significance level and a statistical sampling error of plus or minus five percentage points was found. Sampling results based on each subgroup (such as Indians, Africans, Mixed, Amerindians) has a larger sampling error.
Asked which party they will vote for, 50% of the sample said PPP/C, followed by 30% APNU, 11% AFC, less than 1% TUF, and almost 9% undecided. With a margin of error of 5%, support could vary in either direction meaning, for example, that PPP could poll up to 55%.
The findings show APNU has been successful in attracting the traditional PNC support; AFC has lost some of the gains it made among the PNC base with many Africans and Mixed returning to APNU (equated as PNC among the population); APNU is targeting and consolidating the PNC base; AFC is making significant gains among traditional PPP/C supporters, threatening the PPP/C’s hold on a majority in parliament. Supporters of the PPP say the AFC has adopted a strategy of focusing the preponderance of their resources in traditional PPP areas as the party has ceased to gain support among PNC strongholds.
If AFC continues to take support away from PPP/C, the election could be a closer fight between PPP/C and APNU.
The outcome of the election will depend on voter turnout. There is a high level of apathy among the voters, with a large number of them saying they will not vote. The undecided voters could very well decide the fate of the parties.
Voters were also asked whether Moses Nagamootoo, the PPP stalwart who resigned from the party two weeks ago, will make a difference for AFC. There were mixed responses. APNU supporters believe Nagamootoo will divide the traditional PPP support, enabling APNU to win a plurality. AFC supporters are confident that Moses can attract enough support to deny the PPP 50%. The former PPP stalwart is enormously popular among the PPP rank and file, and it is primarily through him that the AFC is making gains among the PPP base.
Voters were also asked which party is likely to win the election. There were divided opinions: 44% said the PPP/C will win the Presidency as well as a majority of votes; an additional 21% said the PPP will win the Presidency but not a majority of votes; 30% said no party will win a majority of votes.
With the election some two weeks away from when the latest poll was conducted, opinions could change by then. NACTA will conduct another poll from this weekend.
