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Originally posted by caribj:

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Originally posted by Spice Girl:

I discussed this with a top party official. He emphatically stated that there cannot be a minority govt (with less than 50.1% votes. That's why there must be a coalition. Failing to arrive at an agreement, after 5 days, I believe there will be some kind of an Emergency govt until fresh elections are held. Let's hear from GR.

Spice paranoid Janet changed the consitution to prevent AFTER election coalitions, so fresh in her mind was what the PNC/UF pulled against her.

Others have stated a minority win will lead to a consitutional crisis.

In any acse I dont see the AFc joining the PPP, filled as it is with so many disgrunted ex PPPites who will be swallowe and spat out as the AFc will most likely be the junior partner.

More likely the AFC and the PNC will bid etheir time and call a no confidence vote around the time that Ramotar has shown Guyanese what an idiot he is. Unless as president he continues to let Jagdeo speak up for him.

Whats good is the PPP will not get 67% of the votes so will not be able to chnage the constitution even if they win w/o cooperation from the opposition.

This I can agree with. Well said Carib! I still think you should go back to GY and help the Granger campaign since you said you're supporting Granger.

Caribj, I sense Guyana is heading into a constitutional crisis come November 29, if the results do not show any party gaining more than 50%. That's why PPP is now in panic mode and Jagdeo has resorted to inciting ethnic fears about guns and killing. Expect PPP desperation to become nastier in the remaining days.

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Originally posted by caribj:

Whats good is the PPP will not get 67% of the votes so will not be able to chnage the constitution even if they win w/o cooperation from the opposition.

Support of at least 67% of the parliamentarians are need to make those changes to the constitution.

Until parliamentarians indeed make the changes, there will always be squabbles of this kind.

Will there be law and order or will Granger and Van West Charles unearth....?

Guyana's voting dynamic, unlike that of a mature electorate, is not necessarily in synch with how the voters feel about the country.
It takes party organization and years of loyalty to build up a base. The PPP has that advantage and the PNC part of the APNU has seen some disintegration in recent years of that base. It all comes down to how much of a ground game the AFC has developed from the last elections to this one.


As removed as we are from the voting situation in Guyana we tend to think in terms of how an electorate behaves in the countries we emigrated to. The PPP has done what all governments should do as a matter of course and be seen as doing anything exceptional - building roads, bridges, etc. Land reform is something they did in some areas (Tuchen for instance) and I recall too that the Burnham PNC did this but with little success on the highway lands. What we see as important in North america, but may not figure much in the Guyanese electorate is the direction the country is heading? The PPP's record on security and corruption would have erased some of their electoral bulwark. Would that be enough to allow the AFC to bring the PPP/C below 50%?


This is why the Moses resignation has thrown the PPP leadership out of kilter initially, and their instinctual response has only made it worse, as the Guyanese electorate is not that gullible.

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Originally posted by TK_REDUX:
I still think you should go back to GY and help the Granger campaign since you said you're supporting Granger.

I know you wish I would support Granger (never said I did by the way), so the PNC doesnt crumble leaving you all on your own to prevent a PPP majority win. Something that you know you cant do.

I am curious though. What postive comments have I ever made about the PNC? Laughing at how they are a coconut tree without the roots, or so impoverished they cant even rent speaker systems to hold meetings. Or showing that a sleepy Granger has bored his supporters. Or that many are so disinterested that when they show up to v ote and dont see PNC will go home, wondering who they hell is APNU.

Given the fact that no one gives the PNC a chnacve to win, even those who felt it possible earlier thus year, these arent the type of comments which help "APNU?".

Having said that their meetings in their core strongholds and in Corriverton show they still "own" the grass roots blacks. Pity the AFC couldnt woo some over as they are a large part of the highly motivated anti PPP vote.

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Originally posted by Spice Girl:
Caribj, I sense Guyana is heading into a constitutional crisis come November 29, if the results do not show any party gaining more than 50%. That's why PPP is now in panic mode and Jagdeo has resorted to inciting ethnic fears about guns and killing. Expect PPP desperation to become nastier in the remaining days.

There will be no constitutional crisis. The winning majority forms the government and then tries to persuade one or the other opposition to assist it on an individual basis to get along to go along. There can of course be a no confidence vote and new elections but I do not think the opposition would allow that since they will not want to lose the possibility of making a difference and they optimize their chances in the next poll the longer they hold out. In any event, a minority government would mean we have deliberative democracy for the first time

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Originally posted by Kari:

This is why the Moses resignation has thrown the PPP leadership out of kilter initially, and their instinctual response has only made it worse, as the Guyanese electorate is not that gullible.

Moses Nagamootoo's intentions to change political party did not happen just days before the official presentation of parties' list.

Hence, it is unlikely that the PPP/C would be out of kilter.

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Originally posted by Spice Girl:
Caribj, I sense Guyana is heading into a constitutional crisis . .

I dont. This is exactly the results I hope. I dont see a PPP losss because "APNU?" clearly is stuck with the impoverished African vote....not enough to win...maybe 25-30%.

The AFC hasnt shown evidnece of strong support outside of region 6 and the urban middle class youth vote...so they cant win either...Hopefully also 25-30%.

The best possible result is a PPP tied down to 45%. A reinvigorate doppoistion will be far less lazy than they were between 2006-2009. Many soup lickers will run out of the PPP , not wanting to sink in that ship. Ramotar will prove to all of Guyana how inept he is as Jagdeo will no longer be able to disguise this fact.

This renewed vigor will give the AFC an opportunity to truly beaf up and earn the support of a majority and maybe win an election late next year.

That "tired of di collie" stunt which Granger allowed has finally sunk them. No party can win in Guyana based on just one race. Not every person in each race believes that race politics is workable, regardless as to what their private opinions on race might be. Bad move PNC.

If the PPP gets under 50 per cent but remains the largest party in terms of votes it will have to coalesce to avoid being seen as a minority government. This is what Burnham did with Fielden Singh when Cheddi boycotted Parliament.

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Originally posted by Alexander:
If the PPP gets under 50 per cent but remains the largest party in terms of votes it will have to coalesce to avoid being seen as a minority government. This is what Burnham did with Fielden Singh when Cheddi boycotted Parliament.

There can be no coalitions after the election! The PPP dug that hole for themselves when they think they can win forever on the backs of the indian vote alone!

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Originally posted by Alexander:
If the PPP gets under 50 per cent but remains the largest party in terms of votes it will have to coalesce to avoid being seen as a minority government..

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With whom? The PNC? The AFC? The UF isnt going to matter, not with this public spat a few days before the election. Again this will benefit the AFC.

Both the AFC and the PNC will get ambitious thinking that they could use Ramotar's ineptness to expand their bases...giving the PPP enough time to display his weaknesses.

I predict after one year there will be a vote of no confidence...hopefully the oppoistion parties will have used this time to strengthen their grass roots bases.

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Caribj That "tired of di collie" stunt which Granger allowed has finally sunk them. No party can win in Guyana based on just one race. Not every person in each race believes that race politics is workable, regardless as to what their private opinions on race might be. Bad move PNC.

I don't believe Granger supports this, after all is wife of some 40 years is Chinese. I would however admit that too many in his close circle do subscribe to this ignorant sentiment, that should all Afro-Guyanese vote for PNC/APNU, the party cannot obtain a majority of votes. Unless, as ignorant as they are, they would expect other ethnicities to vote for the party. Folks like these are hurting Granger with their vicious racism.

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Originally posted by Spice Girl:

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Caribj That "tired of di collie" stunt which Granger allowed has finally sunk them. No party can win in Guyana based on just one race. Not every person in each race believes that race politics is workable, regardless as to what their private opinions on race might be. Bad move PNC.

I don't believe Granger supports this, after all is wife of some 40 years is Chinese. I would however admit that too many in his close circle do subscribe to this ignorant sentiment, that should all Afro-Guyanese vote for PNC/APNU, the party cannot obtain a majority of votes. Unless, as ignorant as they are, they would expect other ethnicities to vote for the party. Folks like these are hurting Granger with their vicious racism.

I know that Granger doesnt. He is too intelligent a man to think that this behavior is acceptable if one also complains of racism from Indians.

Racism from the abused doesnt justify racism towards teh socalled abuser...especially a s it is now obvious that many Indos dont feel that they have benefitted much from the PPP.

And as I said mobs can be whipped up against any target that some one can select. Today Indians...tomorrow who knows.

Baseman can relax though. If Indos flock to the PPP as a result of this then they are crazy. Clearly racist politics in Guyana has resulted in racial insecurities to the point where people think that racist behavior can be justified because the other is also seen as being racist. So to me this should benefit the AFC....bringing back to it those who were returning to the PNC as they preferred Granger to Corbin....and attracting others who see the danger of excluding a major ethnic group as the PPP has done.

Who write more TRASH AND STINKIG LIES than you. I would not you teach anyone of my relative. You LIE about everything. They should check to see if your Qualifications are BOGUS. You bloody DUNCE!!!!

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Originally posted by TK_REDUX:
You know our boy Pavi writes trash...but at least Pavi don't pretend otherwise...but the above is trash pretending to be intelligent.

Expert?? You are noyhing but a damn FOOL!!!

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Originally posted by TK_REDUX:

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Originally posted by Spice Girl:

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TK: Spice Girl are you sure about that? I thought the party which gets the highest percentage forms the govt regardless? I stand corrected, however.

I discussed this with a top party official. He emphatically stated that there cannot be a minority govt (with less than 50.1% votes. That's why there must be a coalition. Failing to arrive at an agreement, after 5 days, I believe there will be some kind of an Emergency govt until fresh elections are held. Let's hear from GR.

Thanks Spicy...I am not a Constitutional expert.