I believe Johnson, Trump and Granger will lose


There are three elections coming up soon that are important to Guyana. Two are from nations, which Guyana has been traditionally linked to and there are close interconnections between the three countries.
The UK and the US have intimate relationships with Guyana because of history and migration.
I believe either before October or shortly after October, the UK Prime Minister will call a general poll. He became PM not through the ballots of the electorate. Should he face the voters, he will lose. My guess is that the Labour Party will have the largest bloc in Parliament but not a majority.
Why will Johnson lose? When he championed Brexit, voters had no idea what Brexit entailed. Then after two years, they saw what Breixt would be like. They will frown on it in a general election. Since the referendum to leave the EU, the people of Britain have seen what kind of politicians the Brexiters are. They didn’t know about their duplicity before. They will reject them at the poll.
Trump lost the national vote but won the presidency through the Electoral College. I don’t see a repeat of this. The gargantuan fact staring Americans right in the face is that this man who promised to bring new leadership to benefit the lower income classes has failed miserably to do so. The Trump phenomenon fizzled out like a damp squib. The Trump phenomenon came and went. My strongly held opinion is that he will lose.
Here in Guyana, I cannot see Granger securing a parliament majority. I will go so far to say that is an impossibility. What I am uncertain about is the figure. But the more I break down the voting pattern through demographic analysis, I more see this election being closer than what it was in 2015.
Let us put aside any consideration of election rigging and look at a credible voting system. For Granger to win beyond the 4,500 votes that separated him and the PPP in 2015, he needs to improve on the 2015 performance on every demographic front. Here are the crucial factors I believe will bring about a loss for Granger.
The PNC (forget about the APNU), reached 50 percent in 2015 because the AFC brought in a percentage that moved the PNC from 43 to 50. This effect was a 7 percent contribution of the AFC.
I read the GECOM tabulation of polling station results throughout the country. I will recommend it to analysts who will be called upon by radio and television to offer their predictions as the campaign heats up.
Those tabulations proved that the 7 percent came from Indian constituencies formerly devoted to the PPP. The results for Linden and Amerindian areas are opaque and will remain so forever because one does not know and will never know if Lindeners voted for the PNC or the AFC. One can guess, and my guess is that the choice went to the PNC.
My theory (I would like to see a rebuttal) is that PPP supporters chose the AFC and that is what brought the 51 percent. I am contending most vehemently that 7 percent is gone and gone completely. Those supporters will en mass return to their traditional voting pattern thus swelling the PPP numbers. There are two formidable factors in any consideration of the shape of the result of the upcoming poll.
One is the loss of the AFC to the PPP in the home village of Nagamootoo and Ramjattan in 2015. The standing of both men, in my estimation in Indian constituencies has dropped to horrible levels. Can they win in their hometowns this time? I doubt it.
Secondly, it is not only logical but borders on commonsense to argue that if a major party in government with seven ministers including the prime minister and twelve parliamentarians cannot win even one local government authority out of 88 throughout the territory of Guyana, then it has no electoral support.
It is my deep belief etched in my mind that the AFC had its day, and the dialectics have swept it into history. No one in Guyanese seriously believes there is a viable entity named the Working People’s Alliance. It came, took the country by storm and then it died. I honestly think the AFC has followed the same pathway.
The electoral demise of the AFC is an essential factor, which the analyst must consider in the configuration of the upcoming election. It is this columnist’s thinking that the loss of the 7 percent will cause the APNU+AFC platform to lose the minority presidency in 2019. I may be wrong but this is how I see it.
(The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of this newspaper)

Original Post

Seven rows from bottom of the article, not including hilited area, "No one in Guyanese".....whaderass dah mean?

Perhaps I gaffa apply fo editah position fo help ketch spelling mistakes an so on..

But I gaffa say I agree with what TK's pullin from his orbokulum. A dumbass racist narcistic perverted US prez and a boring useless GY Prez on the way out, with the possibility of an English one also being thrown to the curb.

cain posted:

Seven rows from bottom of the article, not including hilited area, "No one in Guyanese".....whaderass dah mean?

Perhaps I gaffa apply fo editah position fo help ketch spelling mistakes an so on..

But I gaffa say I agree with what TK's pullin from his orbokulum. A dumbass racist narcistic perverted US prez and a boring useless GY Prez on the way out, with the possibility of an English one also being thrown to the curb.

Johnson cannot get his deal by October. Brits are going to an election. The Labor party is still weak and only have a slight chance of putting together a coalition to take the PM job. If they win and a hard brexit has not happened then look out for a new referendum.  Being british has no value without Europe. 

Stormborn posted:
cain posted:

Seven rows from bottom of the article, not including hilited area, "No one in Guyanese".....whaderass dah mean?

Perhaps I gaffa apply fo editah position fo help ketch spelling mistakes an so on..

But I gaffa say I agree with what TK's pullin from his orbokulum. A dumbass racist narcistic perverted US prez and a boring useless GY Prez on the way out, with the possibility of an English one also being thrown to the curb.

Johnson cannot get his deal by October. Brits are going to an election. The Labor party is still weak and only have a slight chance of putting together a coalition to take the PM job. If they win and a hard brexit has not happened then look out for a new referendum.  Being british has no value without Europe. 

Likely that the LibDems and the Brexit party will do well. Leaving an even bigger shambles than we see now.

Increasingly voters are tired of the political status quo.  In the UK, USA and Guyana.

Only problem is that the only credible 3rd party in Guyana will be the "I am not voting" party so those who don't want Granger to win support Jagdeo and should be honest enough to admit it. 

And as with Guyana so is the USA.  The only credible 3rd party is "I didn't vote last time and don't plan to vote this time either".  Who will benefit from this is unknown. 

I am not going to rule out Trump and I predict that once again the Midwest will hold the keys.  The Dems can pile all the votes that they wish in one state, CA, but lose if they don't win the electoral college.  If one excludes CA Trump also won the popular vote so the Dems need to understand that there is a world outside of CA, NY/NJ and New England,  and should conduct their campaigning with this in mind.

caribny posted:
Stormborn posted:
cain posted:

Seven rows from bottom of the article, not including hilited area, "No one in Guyanese".....whaderass dah mean?

Perhaps I gaffa apply fo editah position fo help ketch spelling mistakes an so on..

But I gaffa say I agree with what TK's pullin from his orbokulum. A dumbass racist narcistic perverted US prez and a boring useless GY Prez on the way out, with the possibility of an English one also being thrown to the curb.

Johnson cannot get his deal by October. Brits are going to an election. The Labor party is still weak and only have a slight chance of putting together a coalition to take the PM job. If they win and a hard brexit has not happened then look out for a new referendum.  Being british has no value without Europe. 

Likely that the LibDems and the Brexit party will do well. Leaving an even bigger shambles than we see now.

Increasingly voters are tired of the political status quo.  In the UK, USA and Guyana.

Only problem is that the only credible 3rd party in Guyana will be the "I am not voting" party so those who don't want Granger to win support Jagdeo and should be honest enough to admit it. 

liberals did not want to leave. It was the conservative. You are also using words loosely. Most people indeed do not want the status quo which is the rich getting richer and hogging all the wealth. 1 percent own 80 percent of all assets. Some thought trump was not the status quo. What do they have? Wall street running the country and the worse of the worse swamp culture developing to t he disadvantage of poor and the environment. 

Credibility in a third party put Granger in office. No one cared for his insipid arrogant backsides. He was selected by burnhamite hardliners so Indians did not care for him. It is their trust in the AFC that caused them to come over. Granger is in office because of Third party followers. 

I support Shuman. Anyone of the two aligators is not going to do Guyana any good. Under granger the PNC of bygone era is re emerging. We need a few seats in the middle that could unseat one or the other. 

caribny posted:

And as with Guyana so is the USA.  The only credible 3rd party is "I didn't vote last time and don't plan to vote this time either".  Who will benefit from this is unknown. 

I am not going to rule out Trump and I predict that once again the Midwest will hold the keys.  The Dems can pile all the votes that they wish in one state, CA, but lose if they don't win the electoral college.  If one excludes CA Trump also won the popular vote so the Dems need to understand that there is a world outside of CA, NY/NJ and New England,  and should conduct their campaigning with this in mind.

You are funny. You alone see what thousands of people who make a living at this cannot! But you forget in the next election, Georgia, New Mexico Nevada and North Carolina can be a back stop to those flyover zones!

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