Big mouth Kari usual race baiting.  AFC never pulled the mix, they pulled the Afros when there was an Afro candidate and the Indians with Nagamootoo joined.  This time around everyone gone "home".

Last time PPP got 49% with AFC taking a significant amount of their base.  That one-trick pony done tip over.  You can add most of the AFC support to the PPP and with their loyal 49%, that puts that at 54%, easily.

Big mouth Kari.......

Is there a compelling need for "Big mouth"? Does it make your Sunday morning? Does it give you a turn-on? Do you feel good about yourself? Do you feel more of a man? Are you now pounding your chest?

It is still up in the air whether "everyone's gone home". The jury is still out on the PPP's known quantum as there is still a "change" dynamic in the air.

Like I said the last week is when you will get a better feel.

The early days had an AFC charge as a coalition member and the PPP with drawn faces. After that died down the PPP went to work. The pendulum may swing but one dynamic that hasn't gone away is the urge fro change. Will inertia make this fresh dynamic infused by the actions of the AFC disappear?

Baseman is going with "everyone's gone home". the question is "is there a home". Or more like the AFC is offering a homeless shelter?

Kari, nice write up.  However, I don't see the AFC getting more than 2%. All the constant changes and turmoil that has happened since 2011 in the party most likely will cause them to lose supporters. 

seriously? . . . talk about a predicate of NONSENSE!

when did AFC become a party of the "mixed race"?

smfh

I think he meant "mixed-up".

"Mixed race" is meant not ethnically mixed races, but mixed in the sense of some Indians and some Blacks; and I do not mean Amerindian and mixed races. Hope this clarifies things for you and you can stop shaking your head as the little grey matter keeps getting bounced around and more damaged. By a mix of the two races Ii sense it's more Indians (disaffected PPP voters) and not so much blacks who may not care for the AFC.

You see how humor is much better than disparaging adjectives that do not add to a sensible discourse.

You can teach that perennially deranged and twisted redux who has never posted anything humorous and is always writing as dark as his character. That guy has not known what happiness is in his entire life. He constantly feels as if everyone is a dark force out to get him. His psychosis is working overtime. Lighten up redux....join the rest of the world.

Let's deconstruct "a predicate of NONSENSE!". Let's do some reduxion. Oh crap......I'm outta here.

so where are the "mixed race" and Amerindians in your 'analysis'?

are they the remnant 13% ?

this is the kind of foolishness operators like you trip over when u work backwards from hardened positions baggaged with political? prejudice

Yaaawnnnnn.......

Why is it you believe that 45 percent of t he population registered PPP?  Does that not stretch credibility when 60 percent of the population is non Indian and they never pulled in more than  6 to 8% of that? If you give t hem 100 percent of Indians and amerindians you still are not yet 50 percent.

We know close to half of Amerindians never vote for them and now they have a credible person from the APNU_AFC speaking to them why would they all defect to the PPP en mass?

You are setting up an overly favorable view of the PPP. I also cannot see that in the midst of that obscene level of corruption that Indians will hold the line completely. Surely there are at least a few non sheep in that lot!

Data mining does not get you anywhere in Guyana politics.  There is a simple dynamic, last time PPP got 49% and we know most of the AFC support were the Nagamootoo followers (PPP base).  Most likely they will return "home" and add to the 49% loyal supporters, they come in at 54%.  Now, if the PNC base feels disgruntled and don't turn out, the PPP's relative showing could be stronger.  So I predict the PPP 54% minimum.

Kari your data is three weeks outdated.  The PPP are at 46.9 percent.  The COALITIONS at 48.3 percent.  The other parties are all together tagged at 0.2 percent.

THE REST UNDECIDED.  Thus you have a much smaller group to convince now and there is the potential after today's PPP rally that the coalition can lose some, a small sum to the PPP.  

This his race got teeth.

Storm and redux.........the percentages I mentioned says largely Indians or largely blacks. The Amerindian and mixed race groups are included in that. Note that no one party owns the Amerindian and mixed race demographic, but you can deduce that the PPP with its winnjng percentage even with 45% of the population being Indian, means that they got more REGISTERED and ACTUAL voters, and they probably won the two demographics that are Amerindian and mixed.

Y'all should stop parsing the numbers as Baseman makes an astute point about the numbers. Mt only question to him is "are the disaffected going home or going to a homeless shelter?"

Ii gave my calculations as is. Ii do not quote a source or use public statistics other than voting results in the past and the rest is educated conjecture. You seem to have more certainty in your calculation. You may even choose not to share your authority, and I say kudos to you.

Flour boy, in 2011 you said AFC was at 35%.  Your algorithm is skewed, if not screwed.

Why would data mining not get you answers? Do you think that Guyanese are so contrary that trends do not develop per their habits? To the contrary. If we knew the ethnicity and population in the geographic districts we not only would predict with certainty but have almost zero margin for error.

The last results do not give us sufficient data to inform us on outcome. This parading of historical data here is a waste of time. You must look to the existing numbers of voters which is almost 100K more than last time. Noting almost 120K of mostly blacks did not vote you have another category of voters that could on their own determine outcome if they vote this time. Add to that the PPP has approx 6% less indians to start with and even more if Indians think for themselves.

This is a nail biter and nothing in the data seem to show the PPP has any good chances above and beyond the opposition. It is for the opposition to make a final run through region 3 to consolidate their gains among the discontented there. Region four will remain consistent. Region 1 apparently has been packed with a 47 percent increase of people not there the last time and the same goes for 9 and 8 leaving me to speculate that there might be some deliberate overloading going on here.

You two seem to love ejaculating on each other.

no need to "deconstruct" sir; ask a friend (many capable right here on GNI) if you need help with the language

Rass bai, you wan good story teller

You are not making any sense. You suggest we stop parsing numbers and yet you make a case on dubious hypothesis about numbers registered and for the PPP!

Kari exercising his "theoretical franchise", it's all he can do these days.

If those are recent polls then the ourcome is still unclear. I would look for the PPP to drop some monumental lie a day or so before the election to pull back a few percentage points. The margin has to be around 6 percent for victory to be certain.

Actually, I am waiting for them to manufacture some some scandal against Granger. They did all they can with Nagamotto and cannot milk that further. Granger is the one they are ready to drop a stink bomb on. These are terribly dangerous people. Further, the have their entire income stream in jeopardy if the lose plus some may lost their freedom. look out for some incredible story of Granger as a serial killer of Indians or something truly macabre from their ranks.

You mean the Netanyahu tactic?

No, Netanuahu articulated what has always been Israeli policy. He simply said it publicly for the first time. I am saying they will have to manufacture a good and credible lie targeting a specific demographic or something along that line. They cannot do it with sugar workers since that is already cliche. It may be be something to bring back losses in region 3 for example.

it does not matter how corrupt the ppp is the Indians must still be loyal

The last time around quite a chunk of the base defected to the AFC.  With 49% outcome it meant quite a lot of loyalist are not Indians.

1.  There is no definable ethnic category called "mixed".  Mixed people are simply those who for various reasons do not label themselves Indian, African, Amerindian, Chinese, Portuguese or white.

2.  There is a high degree of correlation between mixed and African voters, as most mixed people tend to be part African, and are more accepted by their African relatives, than by others.

3.  Contrary to what Kari insists in implying the PNC has a base of 40%.  EVERY election, aside from 2006 this is the vote that they got.

4.  You do not know enough to know whether Africans and/or mixed voters supported the AFC in 2006.  You can assume that rural Indians didn't, but they might have received some urban Indian support.  The AFC didn't campaign effectively in Regions 4 and 10, or in New Amsterdam because of their focus on PPP strongholds in Regions 5 and 6.  So the AFC lost many of their Region 4 and 10 votes.

All we know for sure is that the results will be close.  This is a new environment in Guyana.  For the first time not all of the vote will be tribal.  In addition it is likely that more youth votes will occur.  How that ends up I don't know, and I suggest that any one who does think that they know is stupid.

We don't even know what the ethnic composition of the VOTING AGE population is, nor do we know how the various subsets (divided not only by ethnicity but by social class, geography and attitudes towards the PPP) will vote.  What we do know is that the days of 85% voter turn out, that we saw as recently as 2001, seem to be over.

lol

the interesting part is where the sage Dr? Karimullah diagnoses 'my paranoia'

now, i do admit to making a point of taking down the posing, pointy-headed PPP stupids on this BB for 'low hanging fruit' reasons among other more important imperatives . . . but where oh where did i ELEVATE any of you racist, klown non-entities as a "dark force out to get [me]"?

stolen money really making y'all effete dribblers think way too much of yourselves

har de har har har har harrr

In 2011 the AFC supporters still believe that the AFC was independent of the PNC and PPP/C.

However, after the 2011 elections the AFC not only was firmly in support of the PNC but, as noted publicly a few months ago, they-AFC became firmly attached to the PNC.

You obviously do not recognize sarcasm. I'm telling KishanB he hides his source so go run up the flag pole, and this ******* Baseman thinks I agree with KishanB.

Baseman, stay out of big boys' conversation. Your mental depth is taking a beating, so shut up , will ya?

redux, you have as much friends here (and I surmise everywhere) as a donut middle - nada, zilch.....

Parse, as in micro-managing every nuance. I'm crediting Baseman here for cutting out the fluff and the jackass doesn't even realize that I appreciate him cutting to the chase instead of gesticulating over numbers as you do ?Storm. Y'all two are real suroo and duroo.

We dont know anything for a fact as the data points don't exist to come to any reasonable prediction. We are left to apply inductive and deductive reasoning to predict an outcome.

What we do know is the historical pattern and the race make-up.  We also know where the loyalties of the two dominant groups lie.  We also know of the 2011 anomaly where the AFC took away PPP votes based on the Nagamootoo factor.  We also know (with some assurance) these voters may vote AFC, but not PNC.  Now AFC = PNC, so the unknown is what will their reaction be to the AFC being part of the PNC.

We know the PNC took 43% in 2011 which means most Afros and a chunk of mixed.  We know the PPP took 49% and lost about 6% of their base to the AFC.  With the Indian population at 45% means the PPP got 10% of non-Indian vote.  We can assume this came from most of the other races and a smaller chunk of the mixed race.

If we assume the AFC loses it's 2011 base which will revert to the PPP, then a PPP majority govt seems almost certain.  The only major unknown is the ability of the AFC to hold onto the PPP base it took.

Loyal? Or fear of the alternative?

For the first time not all of the vote will be tribal.  In addition it is likely that more youth votes will occur.

I contend that the binary choice offered when the AFC coalesced with APNU, effectively making it PNC all over again, will lead to a situation where people revert to tribal voting.

Young people will do what they always do, except when excited - they will yaaawnnnnn when it comes polling day. And for those who bother (that is, ignoring one foot in the USA and the barrels and Western Union checks) they will be like sheep following their parents stories about coolie and black insecurities over one another.

you're absolutely correct about the GNI part . . . remind me again why it isn't clear that i meant YOUR friends

There's a lot of sense in that Baseman. Of course now that you got some credit from me, you will make both you and myself look like charlatans, eight? Or has your English comprehension improved in the course of a few posts and admonitions?