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Dealing with the Islamic State demands patience, not panic


By Fareed Zakaria

 

Henry Kissinger has noted that in his adult lifetime, the United States has fought five major wars and began each one with great enthusiasm and public support. But in each of them, Americans soon began to ask, “How quickly can you withdraw?” In three of these conflicts, he says, the United States withdrew its forces unilaterally. Today we are watching a similarly powerful, and understandable, enthusiasm for an expanded war against the Islamic State. Let us make sure we understand what it would entail not just to start it but also to end it.

 

One place to learn some lessons might be from a strategy that has been relatively successful: the war against al-Qaeda. As Peter Bergen noted in 2012, a year after Osama bin Laden’s death, the group’s leadership had been destroyed, its resources had disappeared and its support among the Arab public had plummeted. It has not launched an attack on Western soil since the London bombings 10 years ago.

 

The picture did not always look like that. After 9/11, officials and experts spoke of al-Qaeda with the awe and fear they now reserve for the Islamic State. Once the United States and its allies began battling the group, it inspired or directed several attacks across the globe, including the bloodiest in the West since 9/11, the 2004 Madrid train bombings, which killed 191 people. But those attacks did not mean al-Qaeda was “winning” the war on terrorism any more than the attacks in Paris last week mean that the Islamic State is winning. In fact, it’s possible that as the Islamic State loses territory on the ground, it is resorting to terrorism abroad.

 

What explains the success against al-Qaeda? Many experts point to the genuinely global counterterrorism operations, especially the sharing of intelligence. Others note that the group overplayed its hand in Iraq.

In one of the best books on the topic, “Hunting in the Shadows,” Seth Jones concludes that whenever the United States adopted a “light-footprint strategy” — Special Operations forces, covert intelligence and law enforcement — it did well. Whenever the United States and its allies sent troops into Muslim countries, he notes, “al-Qaeda has benefited through increased radicalization and additional recruits.” This is why from the start, the Islamic State has sought to bait Western countries into sending troops to Syria.

 

 

President Obama made remarks and answered questions at the G-20 summit in Turkey on Nov. 13. Here's what he said about the path forward fighting the Islamic State, welcoming Muslims and protecting Syrian refugees. (AP)

 

Defeating the group militarily would not be difficult. But to keep it defeated, someone would have to rule its territories or else it, or a variant, would just come back. The Islamic State draws its support from Sunnis in Iraq and Syria who feel persecuted by the non-Sunni governments in both countries. In addition, the group has created a functioning state that provides some measure of stability for a population that has been battered over the past decade.

 

In this sense, the Islamic State is more akin to the Taliban than al-Qaeda, which was a gang of foreigners lodged in Afghanistan as guests of the Taliban. But the Taliban itself is a local group, with support in the Pashtun communities of Afghanistan and Pakistan. This explains why the United States has not defeated it, after 14 years of warfare and tens of thousands of American soldiers and now many more Afghan troops. Keep in mind that in Afghanistan, the United States has a decent local ally that has considerable legitimacy. In Syria, it has none. The Kurds are a crucial ally and should become even more important in the months ahead. Still, as an ethnic minority, they cannot govern Arab lands.

 

Politicians call on the United States to build up an army of moderate Syrians. It is a worthwhile endeavor. But historically, when foreigners have helped put together local forces, those forces have usually lacked legitimacy and staying power — think of the Cubans who landed at the Bay of Pigs, the South Vietnamese regime or Washington’s favored Iraqi exiles. This essential problem — the lack of a credible local ally — makes ground operations in Syria harder than in Iraq, Afghanistan or Vietnam.

 

This is not to counsel despair but to suggest “strategic patience,” as President Obama rightly says. The Islamic State is not nearly as strong as the hysteria of the moment suggests. It is surrounded by deadly foes. Many countries are fighting it — Sunni Saudi Arabia and Shiite Iran, the United States and Vladimir Putin’s Russia, neighboring Jordan and faraway France. Its territory is shrinking, and its message is deeply unpopular to most in its supposed “caliphate” — witness the hundreds of thousands of Syrian refugees fleeing its barbarism.

 

Counterterrorism, intelligence, airstrikes, drones and Special Operations are arenas where the West has the advantage — it has the money, technology, know-how and international cooperation. And it can hammer away for months, even years. If instead, panicked by terrorism, we were to send American soldiers into the deserts of Syria, we would enter the one arena where the Islamic State has the decisive advantage. And after a few inconclusive years, people would start asking, “How quickly can you withdraw?”

Replies sorted oldest to newest

the Sunni regional powers are playing a double game . . . Fareed Zakaria is not being forthright

 

Assad is the elephant in the room, but the American President cannot engage that reality openly because of too many idiots in Congress . . . fortunately this nonsense is changing

FM

Assad is from the Alawite tribe in Syria which accounts fr about 15% of the population. They are a variant of the Shiite sect and enemies of the Sunni Arabs.

 

The Turks, part of NATO is violently opposed to the only solid ally the US has in those two countries - the Kurds. Turkey is the Gateway for European-born fighters who join Daesh and the Turks have not been cooperative with Obama to seal that border. The Turks are only interested in fighting the Kurds.

 

The Iranians are only interested in keeping fellow Shiite Assad in power. The Russians are only interested in keeping the Alawites in power as they would lose their naval base and the military pact (Russia's onlt toehol;d in the Middle East) if Sunnis come in to power.

 

The Kurds cannot rule over Sunni lands - they won't tolerate it.

 

So the issue now is the Sunnis. That's where the Saudis, Qataris and UAE and Jordan have their own agenda too. They are opposed to the Shiite influence everywhere.

 

Where do the Americans fit into all this? When the Gulf Cooperation Council, heavily choreographed by the US following the oil hikes in the 70s and fighting the Soviets in the Afghanistan proxy war helping the Jihadists who later became Al Qaeda and harbored by the Taliban after Clinton chased them out of the Horn of Africa. Everything was ok from an American perspective until the neo-cons had their gift of removing Saddam. Enter Obama to lesson the US footprint to a strategically sound one. It calls for patience. Yoiu can bomb and bomb. but you need to hold territory. We must learn from Vietnam and Afghanistan and Iraq.

Kari

"Many countries are fighting it [ISIS] — Sunni Saudi Arabia and Shiite Iran, the United States and Vladimir Putin’s Russia, neighboring Jordan and faraway France." (Fareed Zakaria)

 

i agree with most of his analysis, especially the parts dealing with the true strength of ISIS and Obama's correct policy of no US boots on the ground . . ., but the above is incoherent nonsense by Fareed!

 

THIS is where the Saudi minds are concentrated: http://www.theguardian.com/wor...lks-says-state-media

FM
Last edited by Former Member
Originally Posted by Kari:

Assad is from the Alawite tribe in Syria which accounts fr about 15% of the population. They are a variant of the Shiite sect and enemies of the Sunni Arabs.

 

The Turks, part of NATO is violently opposed to the only solid ally the US has in those two countries - the Kurds. Turkey is the Gateway for European-born fighters who join Daesh and the Turks have not been cooperative with Obama to seal that border. The Turks are only interested in fighting the Kurds.

 

The Iranians are only interested in keeping fellow Shiite Assad in power. The Russians are only interested in keeping the Alawites in power as they would lose their naval base and the military pact (Russia's onlt toehol;d in the Middle East) if Sunnis come in to power.

 

The Kurds cannot rule over Sunni lands - they won't tolerate it.

 

So the issue now is the Sunnis. That's where the Saudis, Qataris and UAE and Jordan have their own agenda too. They are opposed to the Shiite influence everywhere.

 

Where do the Americans fit into all this? When the Gulf Cooperation Council, heavily choreographed by the US following the oil hikes in the 70s and fighting the Soviets in the Afghanistan proxy war helping the Jihadists who later became Al Qaeda and harbored by the Taliban after Clinton chased them out of the Horn of Africa. Everything was ok from an American perspective until the neo-cons had their gift of removing Saddam. Enter Obama to lesson the US footprint to a strategically sound one. It calls for patience. Yoiu can bomb and bomb. but you need to hold territory. We must learn from Vietnam and Afghanistan and Iraq.

The only solution is to bring down the terrorist House of Saud.  The Russians and Iranians should not get together and keep oil prices low until those clowns run out of cash and stop funding terrorism.  President Trump should not only take away ISIL oil, but also Saudi oil and let them have them rest of their sand kingdom.  Contain the House of Saud, you will have contained global Islamic terrorism.  Send them back to riding camels rather than driving Bentlys!

FM
Originally Posted by redux:

"Many countries are fighting it [ISIS] — Sunni Saudi Arabia and Shiite Iran, the United States and Vladimir Putin’s Russia, neighboring Jordan and faraway France." (Fareed Zakaria)

 

incoherent nonsense by Fareed!

 

THIS is where the Saudi minds are concentrated: http://www.theguardian.com/wor...lks-says-state-media

I had a lot of respect for this guy, then he plagiarized and lost some credibility.  Now he seem to be catering to some koolaid concoction coming from the White House and his credibility going down again.  I saw Christian Amanpoor also going a bit off the rail.  They need to get back to calling a spade a spade and leave Obama/Hillary to overdose on their own koolaid!

FM
Originally Posted by baseman:

. . . President Trump should not only take away ISIL oil, but also Saudi oil and let them have them rest of their sand kingdom.  Contain the House of Saud, you will have contained global Islamic terrorism.  Send them back to riding camels rather than driving Bentlys!

spoken like a true klown

 

you'd do well prancing with the low IQ FOX morning crew . . . if u were white

FM
Originally Posted by baseman:
 

President Trump should also (take away) Saudi oil and let them have them rest of their sand kingdom.

Didn't we already learn our lesson thinking we can just go and take other peoples' property? Only you and Trump are foolish enough to want to do that again.

FM
Originally Posted by redux:
Originally Posted by baseman:

. . . President Trump should not only take away ISIL oil, but also Saudi oil and let them have them rest of their sand kingdom.  Contain the House of Saud, you will have contained global Islamic terrorism.  Send them back to riding camels rather than driving Bentlys!

spoken like a true klown

 

you'd do well prancing with the low IQ FOX morning crew . . . if u were white

Like dem coolie people in Guyana, he is also a political follower: Bush, Jagdeo, Trump. All corrupt losers.

After Trump done documenting Muslims in America, he might do the same with Guyanese.

Is 'President Trump' a black leader in Africa ?    

Tola
Originally Posted by Tola:
Originally Posted by redux:
Originally Posted by baseman:

. . . President Trump should not only take away ISIL oil, but also Saudi oil and let them have them rest of their sand kingdom.  Contain the House of Saud, you will have contained global Islamic terrorism.  Send them back to riding camels rather than driving Bentlys!

spoken like a true klown

 

you'd do well prancing with the low IQ FOX morning crew . . . if u were white

Like dem coolie people in Guyana, he is also a political follower: Bush, Jagdeo, Trump. All corrupt losers.

After Trump done documenting Muslims in America, he might do the same with Guyanese.

Is 'President Trump' a black leader in Africa ?    

What a clown your are!

FM
Originally Posted by ksazma:
Originally Posted by baseman:
 

President Trump should also (take away) Saudi oil and let them have them rest of their sand kingdom.

Didn't we already learn our lesson thinking we can just go and take other peoples' property? Only you and Trump are foolish enough to want to do that again.

Trump is smarter than you think.  He knows exactly what he is talking about.  But you people are happily consuming the liberal media mantra and Obama/Hillary kool aid.

FM
Originally Posted by Tola:
Originally Posted by redux:
Originally Posted by baseman:

. . . President Trump should not only take away ISIL oil, but also Saudi oil and let them have them rest of their sand kingdom.  Contain the House of Saud, you will have contained global Islamic terrorism.  Send them back to riding camels rather than driving Bentlys!

spoken like a true klown

 

you'd do well prancing with the low IQ FOX morning crew . . . if u were white

Like dem coolie people in Guyana, he is also a political follower: Bush, Jagdeo, Trump. All corrupt losers.

After Trump done documenting Muslims in America, he might do the same with Guyanese.

Is 'President Trump' a black leader in Africa ?    

Are you seeking relevance?  From what I know, you have been involved in Guyana's suicide prevention for over a decade and what so you have to show?  Maybe you need a time-out and figure your cause!

FM

basementMan you see Trump does not realize that refugee admission to the US is safer than the visa waiver for European travelers, and that all the European terrorism are perpetrated by European-born immigrants of Arab and African parents. Trump doesn't know only 36 Syrian refugees were admitted last year. Trump doesn't understand English well enough to know that when the President says he wants to expand the refugee intake next year he's talking about ALL refugees and not just Syrian refugees.

 

Trump is not that smart you see. Even buying companies with loans and taking them to bankruptcies to make money is not producing anything. 

 

You see basement man Trump doesn't Kurds from Quds.

 

And basement man when Trump is asked for specifics on getting rid of 11 million illegals he says good management.

 

 

Kari
Originally Posted by Kari:

basementMan you see Trump does not realize that refugee admission to the US is safer than the visa waiver for European travelers, and that all the European terrorism are perpetrated by European-born immigrants of Arab and African parents. Trump doesn't know only 36 Syrian refugees were admitted last year. Trump doesn't understand English well enough to know that when the President says he wants to expand the refugee intake next year he's talking about ALL refugees and not just Syrian refugees.

 

Trump is not that smart you see. Even buying companies with loans and taking them to bankruptcies to make money is not producing anything. 

 

You see basement man Trump doesn't Kurds from Quds.

 

And basement man when Trump is asked for specifics on getting rid of 11 million illegals he says good management.

 

 

Now Kari, is what you so worried about.  First to go are criminals, second are those less than five years and likely without school kids, 3rd group will need to go through a monitored guest worker program involving some type of sponsorship, renewable every year.  Their right as workers, including medical coverage will be addressed.

 

So, talk less and think more.  That mouth of your catches too much flies!

FM
Originally Posted by Tola:
Originally Posted by redux:
Originally Posted by baseman:

. . . President Trump should not only take away ISIL oil, but also Saudi oil and let them have them rest of their sand kingdom.  Contain the House of Saud, you will have contained global Islamic terrorism.  Send them back to riding camels rather than driving Bentlys!

spoken like a true klown

 

you'd do well prancing with the low IQ FOX morning crew . . . if u were white

Like dem coolie people in Guyana, he is also a political follower: Bush, Jagdeo, Trump. All corrupt losers.

After Trump done documenting Muslims in America, he might do the same with Guyanese.

Is 'President Trump' a black leader in Africa ?    

What a racist comment.  Some of today's African-quality leader would be a welcome impetus to Guyana politics!

FM
Originally Posted by baseman:
Originally Posted by Tola:
Originally Posted by redux:
Originally Posted by baseman:

. . . President Trump should not only take away ISIL oil, but also Saudi oil and let them have them rest of their sand kingdom.  Contain the House of Saud, you will have contained global Islamic terrorism.  Send them back to riding camels rather than driving Bentlys!

spoken like a true klown

 

you'd do well prancing with the low IQ FOX morning crew . . . if u were white

Like dem coolie people in Guyana, he is also a political follower: Bush, Jagdeo, Trump. All corrupt losers.

After Trump done documenting Muslims in America, he might do the same with Guyanese.

Is 'President Trump' a black leader in Africa ?    

What a racist comment.  Some of today's African-quality leader would be a welcome impetus to Guyana politics!

i am most amused when klown bigots like baseman feel compelled to turn their scaly skin inside out and accuse their betters of "racism"

 

lol

FM
Originally Posted by baseman:
Originally Posted by Tola:
Originally Posted by redux:
Originally Posted by baseman:

. . . President Trump should not only take away ISIL oil, but also Saudi oil and let them have them rest of their sand kingdom.  Contain the House of Saud, you will have contained global Islamic terrorism.  Send them back to riding camels rather than driving Bentlys!

spoken like a true klown

 

you'd do well prancing with the low IQ FOX morning crew . . . if u were white

Like dem coolie people in Guyana, he is also a political follower: Bush, Jagdeo, Trump. All corrupt losers.

After Trump done documenting Muslims in America, he might do the same with Guyanese.

Is 'President Trump' a black leader in Africa ?    

What a clown your are!

You are being very kind.

Nehru
Originally Posted by redux:
Originally Posted by baseman:
Originally Posted by Tola:
Originally Posted by redux:
Originally Posted by baseman:

. . . President Trump should not only take away ISIL oil, but also Saudi oil and let them have them rest of their sand kingdom.  Contain the House of Saud, you will have contained global Islamic terrorism.  Send them back to riding camels rather than driving Bentlys!

spoken like a true klown

 

you'd do well prancing with the low IQ FOX morning crew . . . if u were white

Like dem coolie people in Guyana, he is also a political follower: Bush, Jagdeo, Trump. All corrupt losers.

After Trump done documenting Muslims in America, he might do the same with Guyanese.

Is 'President Trump' a black leader in Africa ?    

What a racist comment.  Some of today's African-quality leader would be a welcome impetus to Guyana politics!

i am most amused when klown bigots like baseman feel compelled to turn their scaly skin inside out and accuse their betters of "racism"

 

lol

No, that was a racist comment from Tola.  I do admire Afro leaders like Mandela, leaders of Angola, Mozambique, Rwanda, Uganda, etc.  thy are good examples for the world to learn from!

FM

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