Dr Hinds is WRONG on several counts...in my humble opinion

OPINION: An Irfan Ali Presidency would be a Jagdeo 4th term

 

By David Hinds

First, I am not surprised that Mr. Irfan Ali won by such a wide margin. He was clearly the choice of the PPP’s maximum leader, and the leader’s preference on such matters holds sway with many in the party’s leadership.

Second, Ali’s selection indicates very clearly that should the PPP win the election, it will continue the Jagdeo agenda that was interrupted when the party lost power in 2015. I am less concerned about Jagdeo’s presence in a potential PPP government and more concerned about the Jagdeo agenda of ethnic dominance and the criminalized state. In effect, I see an Ali presidency as a Jagdeo fourth term.

This I think should be cause for concern for all those who would like to see a Guyana that is ethnically inclusive and a state that is untied from the bad influences of the past. Neither Mr. Jagdeo, the PPP or Mr. Ali has repudiated the Jagdeo agenda or has put forward a new agenda.

Third, given his close ties to the Jagdeo agenda, Ali is in effect the best candidate for that section of the PPP’s base that supports that agenda. He is more likely to galvanize that section more than the candidates he defeated. Fourth, whatever his negatives—and there are two that have been in the news—I don’t think those would negatively affect his candidacy among the PPP’s wider base. Those voters to my mind have already made up their minds about their choice between the PNC-led coalition and the PPP.

Fifth, would his negatives make him an easier candidate to defeat? Certainly, he would be easier to beat in the African-Guyanese community. But would those negatives turn off independent Indian-Guyanese voters? In other words, would the Coalition be able to exploit his negatives among independents? Such a strategy could be risky for the coalition, since the PPP would be sure to retaliate by highlighting the negatives of top Coalition leaders. Whether the Coalition could withstand that kind of scrutiny is left to be seen. The PPP, for example, is sure to exploit to the fullest Minister Lawrence’s unfortunate statements on party clientelism.

In any case, I don’t think many hardcore supporters would pay much attention to whether Ali’s degrees are in order or whether he was charged with overseeing the misappropriation of government funds. In fact, I am very sure the PPP would be going after Coalition ministers for misappropriation of government funds whether it’s true or not. So, if I were the Coalition, I would be highlighting more Ali’s fidelity to the Jagdeo agenda in my pitch to independent Indian-Guyanese voters largely because it was that agenda that drove them to the AFC and the Coalition in 2011 and 2015. Of course, the Coalition, particularly the AFC and other independent supporters, would have to make the case to those Indian-Guyanese that their concerns and interests would be better represented by a second Coalition government.

Sixth, is Ali’s relative youth an asset? I am not so sure. As I indicated above, if he is tied to the old agenda then his youthfulness matters very little, if any. As we saw in the case of Mr. Jagdeo who was much younger when he took charge, there is no magic in being a youth—it does not necessarily translate into progressive leadership. Despite his cabinet and parliamentary experience, Mr. Ali has not articulated an agenda and a vision beyond the Jagdeo agenda.

Seventh, it is interesting to note that the PPP, contrary to popular wisdom, has chosen a Muslim as its standard bearer. This can be read as a positive development for the party in that it is reflective of a noble step towards inclusion. However, it could also be read as a submerging of religious contradictions in favor of the ethno-political imperatives.

Finally, it would be interesting to know who voted against Ali. One is tempted to think it is the old-guard, although Anil Nandlall is not a member of that faction. My sense is that the old guard would have favored Frank Anthony, but in the end, I think he was not seen as grounded in the Jagdeo agenda. Hence his inability to garner a majority.

Original Post

I am no doctor but from what I know so far about Guyana politics, I share these opinions....some of these are conjectures and my own biases..there are obviously knowledgeable people here who know a lot more than me...hopefully I can learn from them:

1) ...Ali’s selection indicates very clearly that should the PPP win the election, it will continue the Jagdeo agenda that was interrupted when the party lost power in 2015...

I believe this is a myth being peddled by the PNC (the likes of Hinds, Ogunsese, etc). Look at it this way: there seems to be more interest froups (TI, etc) that will play a watchful eye on any government, making it difficult for ANY government to become corrupt while in office. There is now much information to consider since 2015, and one would like to think that Guyanese are much smarter to the lies of politicians today, than before.

2) ...Jagdeo agenda [is] of ethnic dominance and the criminalized state. In effect, I see an Ali presidency as a Jagdeo fourth term.

This is a reflection of Hinds bias. Afros will not allow the PPP government to establish any kind of dominance. They will make this clear before and after the election (should the PPP win). Like it or not, the PNC will force the PPP to institutionalize constitutional reform that will prevent this from happening. Street protest has always worked well for the PNC.

3. ...given his close ties to the Jagdeo agenda, Ali is in effect the best candidate for that section of the PPP’s base

This may be true...but it leaves littre room for the unexpected...How do we know Ali is not smart enough to understand that he needs to find ways to demonstrate that he is not a puppet, with Jagdeo pulling his strings?

4...whatever his negatives—and there are two that have been in the news—I don’t think those would negatively affect his candidacy among the PPP’s wider base. 

I agree. Indos will vote for the PPP, regardless of who the Presidential or Prime Ministerial candidate is. Race is a key factor.

5...is Ali’s relative youth an asset? I am not so sure. As I indicated above, if he is tied to the old agenda then his youthfulness matters very little..

I disagree. His youth can be, given that most young people might be disenchanted with both parties. Hinds' analysis does not consider other variables...like having a credible PM candidate and having a good Public Relations managing the PPP's and Ali's image. 

6. ...the PPP has chosen a Muslim as its standard bearer. ... it could also be read as a submerging of religious contradictions in favor of the ethno-political imperatives.

This is an asinine statement that makes no sense. Hinds sees everything through a racial prism. The PNC might be inclined to exploit this but Irfan is married to a Hindu (I believe).

jes my 2 cents.

VishMahabir posted:

I am no doctor but from what I know so far about Guyana politics, I share these opinions....some of these are conjectures and my own biases..there are obviously knowledgeable people here who know a lot more than me...hopefully I can learn from them:

1) Firstly, Hinds is not Ogunseye, intellectually, predispositionally or politically. Hinds is a Guyanese nationalist with open ended views. Ogunseye is a pan africanist with narrow afrocentric views. Hinds is not PNC and is not liked within those political circles. Hinds is always interrogating the political beliefs of the society and as such not a natural fit for the PNC. They prefer ideological knee benders.

Any Guyanese government operating under this constitutional system that awards to the President autocratic powers is inevitably seduced to the dark side of power expression. This include rent seeking, ethnic preference, political oppression and an active will to curtail freedom of the Press. That will be magnified.ffart is Jagdeo’s pony.  Jagdeo engineered the selection process to narrow the scope of candidates and advised the pulling out of two candidates so as to make the outcome binary and predictable. I

 

2) Jagdeo is on record of saying constitutional reform which will weaken the PPP’s position in an electoral battle is not going to happen on his watch. Since the system is torqued for ethnic preference and argued on a group level that the state is an ethnic prize then any position that seek to preserve that is philosophically about ethnic dominance. This is not a rendering of Hind;s bias but what is observational from any perspective because it is baked in and one of the reason we are trapped in ethnic based politics.What Hinds is on record of saying is that he believes Shuman’s entry may thwart this ethnic zero sum proposition and Guyana will have minority governments by any group winning a plurality.

The PNC has no influence on the PPP in constitution reform, They could not make the PPP move when an international edict to reform the constitution existed and it was easiest. The PPP waited that time out period promised out execute reforms and perform self serving cosmetic changes. Further, they engineered the dual citizen exclusion rule and the residency rule to vote because they do not want to contend with open mindedness of the diaspora mediating local politics.

The PPP will not reform the constitution and as usual the PNC will do their best to veto their autocratic rule with violence. This is not because the PNC is violent but because this the inevitable path of majoritarian systems as ours. The stakes are higher now that the prize include vast resources.

 

3) Jagdeo has failed completely in his management of the economy. The illusionary wealth of the parallel underground economy wrought of all sorts of nefarious trade had a PPP wink wink wink. It is not successful management principles. Every industry failed and no new one was created. He give away to friends and associates much of the nations physical and natural assets. The illusion of wealth  accretion in indian hands made Indians feel insecure.

Africans on the other hand were discounted to the point that Goebbels Misir was commissioned to write a 50 page dissertation peppered with dense statistics to repudiate african claims to marginalization. The face of that fell apart in court when Jagdeo stupidly sue Freddie and had his administration deposed and torn apart for their racist tropes.

4) This man is repulsive to the intelligentsia...both black and Indian so there will be considerable defection here and the PPP cannot lose numbers anywhere since they only have a 10 percent numerical cushion in the pure ethnic vote. That is already at a 10 point deficit for a victory which means keeping the Amerindian vote and leeching a minimum of 5 percent of the mixed vote. Ifart, a universally despised man in those circles makes that a difficult proposition. Straight race based voting is not sufficient to win these days.

5) Ali’s youth is negated by the reality that he is already a magnet for easy tag-lines about corruption and ethnic nepotism. One does not have to reach far for those since there bags full of them lying around and everyone knows them well. He is only second to jagdeo it the estimation of rent seeking porkers in the PPP ranks. Worse, if anyone would to assess the infinite possibility for their life, nowhere among the choices is there a natural option of saying, "I want this fellow to be a part of my life's experience". He is toxic.

6) The society is vertically segmented by religion and the strongest segregating lines is Muslim/Hindu. Both are exogamous and the cultural taboos that exists comes with severe social sanctions. Where these are broken (and rarely so) it is with weakly religious families or Muslim/Christian families. Culturally they are the same people but that does not do much except as counting numbers for political advantages. Hinds speaks to what he sees exists; political alliance of the groups. It is however no sublimation of religious difference. They do align on politics and on the pseudo ethnic tableau of land of origin.  

This is is exactly what it appears to be;,  two corrupt fellows deciding to continue the heist of Guyana’s assets. Both are already experts at the task and so are already kindred spirits. Ask Asgar Ali, a man better positioned morally and religiously and nationally to have been an example of expression that the  two groups can forget religious lines . They cut him down at the knees for no other reason than the commonly heard phrase in indo communities...dont trust the fulla man.

D2 posted:
VishMahabir posted:

I am no doctor but from what I know so far about Guyana politics, I share these opinions....some of these are conjectures and my own biases..there are obviously knowledgeable people here who know a lot more than me...hopefully I can learn from them:

1) Firstly, Hinds is not Ogunseye, intellectually, predispositionally or politically. Hinds is a Guyanese nationalist with open ended views. Ogunseye is a pan africanist with narrow afrocentric views. Hinds is not PNC and is not liked within those political circles. Hinds is always interrogating the political beliefs of the society and as such not a natural fit for the PNC. They prefer ideological knee benders.

Any Guyanese government operating under this constitutional system that awards to the President autocratic powers is inevitably seduced to the dark side of power expression. This include rent seeking, ethnic preference, political oppression and an active will to curtail freedom of the Press. That will be magnified.ffart is Jagdeo’s pony.  Jagdeo engineered the selection process to narrow the scope of candidates and advised the pulling out of two candidates so as to make the outcome binary and predictable. I

 

2) Jagdeo is on record of saying constitutional reform which will weaken the PPP’s position in an electoral battle is not going to happen on his watch. Since the system is torqued for ethnic preference and argued on a group level that the state is an ethnic prize then any position that seek to preserve that is philosophically about ethnic dominance. This is not a rendering of Hind;s bias but what is observational from any perspective because it is baked in and one of the reason we are trapped in ethnic based politics.What Hinds is on record of saying is that he believes Shuman’s entry may thwart this ethnic zero sum proposition and Guyana will have minority governments by any group winning a plurality.

The PNC has no influence on the PPP in constitution reform, They could not make the PPP move when an international edict to reform the constitution existed and it was easiest. The PPP waited that time out period promised out execute reforms and perform self serving cosmetic changes. Further, they engineered the dual citizen exclusion rule and the residency rule to vote because they do not want to contend with open mindedness of the diaspora mediating local politics.

The PPP will not reform the constitution and as usual the PNC will do their best to veto their autocratic rule with violence. This is not because the PNC is violent but because this the inevitable path of majoritarian systems as ours. The stakes are higher now that the prize include vast resources.

 

3) Jagdeo has failed completely in his management of the economy. The illusionary wealth of the parallel underground economy wrought of all sorts of nefarious trade had a PPP wink wink wink. It is not successful management principles. Every industry failed and no new one was created. He give away to friends and associates much of the nations physical and natural assets. The illusion of wealth  accretion in indian hands made Indians feel insecure.

Africans on the other hand were discounted to the point that Goebbels Misir was commissioned to write a 50 page dissertation peppered with dense statistics to repudiate african claims to marginalization. The face of that fell apart in court when Jagdeo stupidly sue Freddie and had his administration deposed and torn apart for their racist tropes.

4) This man is repulsive to the intelligentsia...both black and Indian so there will be considerable defection here and the PPP cannot lose numbers anywhere since they only have a 10 percent numerical cushion in the pure ethnic vote. That is already at a 10 point deficit for a victory which means keeping the Amerindian vote and leeching a minimum of 5 percent of the mixed vote. Ifart, a universally despised man in those circles makes that a difficult proposition. Straight race based voting is not sufficient to win these days.

5) Ali’s youth is negated by the reality that he is already a magnet for easy tag-lines about corruption and ethnic nepotism. One does not have to reach far for those since there bags full of them lying around and everyone knows them well. He is only second to jagdeo it the estimation of rent seeking porkers in the PPP ranks. Worse, if anyone would to assess the infinite possibility for their life, nowhere among the choices is there a natural option of saying, "I want this fellow to be a part of my life's experience". He is toxic.

6) The society is vertically segmented by religion and the strongest segregating lines is Muslim/Hindu. Both are exogamous and the cultural taboos that exists comes with severe social sanctions. Where these are broken (and rarely so) it is with weakly religious families or Muslim/Christian families. Culturally they are the same people but that does not do much except as counting numbers for political advantages. Hinds speaks to what he sees exists; political alliance of the groups. It is however no sublimation of religious difference. They do align on politics and on the pseudo ethnic tableau of land of origin.  

This is is exactly what it appears to be;,  two corrupt fellows deciding to continue the heist of Guyana’s assets. Both are already experts at the task and so are already kindred spirits. Ask Asgar Ali, a man better positioned morally and religiously and nationally to have been an example of expression that the  two groups can forget religious lines . They cut him down at the knees for no other reason than the commonly heard phrase in indo communities...dont trust the fulla man.

Thanks....this is a lot to digest...

cain posted:

Say what, e'sMuslim? That dam Prashad say in another thread that Irfart was a Hindu an all sort a story. Is like the banna doan know everything or wuh?What a surprise.hehehehe

The man is going to tell you Irfan's forefathers were from India. So he is mixed with Hindu.

Hinds is nothing but a closet RACIST!!! He is saying since Jagdeo killed the Criminals who killed women and children at Lusignan, Bartica and elsewhere, it is Afro cleansing. He feels pain for the Criminals BUT NOT for the poor Indian and Amerindian women and children.

In addition, Pres Jagdeo is a FORCE , he is admired by most Guyanese, he has great knowledge, experiences and intellect to help the PPP Candidate win the next Election. That is what Hinds is worried about!!! Bloody Racist Pig!!!

Nehru Bhai,

No Indo is good enough for the Afrocentric Hinds. He is a POS, Moses should have stuck a bigger stick up his rear !

He loves carrying Granger’s posey. He clearly stated that he supports and prefers the Incompetent PNC !

Let him go and lick Granger’s ball*

Nehru posted:

Hinds is nothing but a closet RACIST!!! He is saying since Jagdeo killed the Criminals who killed women and children at Lusignan, Bartica and elsewhere, it is Afro cleansing. He feels pain for the Criminals BUT NOT for the poor Indian and Amerindian women and children.

In addition, Pres Jagdeo is a FORCE , he is admired by most Guyanese, he has great knowledge, experiences and intellect to help the PPP Candidate win the next Election. That is what Hinds is worried about!!! Bloody Racist Pig!!!

You are posting a blatant lie. Hinds never supported any killing and is on record repudiating the insurgency. Amral used to handle the posting of  his articles and upkeep of his site at that period so I am sure he can attest to that fact. 

The majority of Guyanese presently think Jagdeo is a crook. He can never live that down. The PPP candidate, especially this tainted one will not get an easy time winning the office. Chances are highly likely he will lose because of the visceral rejection of the Guyanese people of placing the hands of one they think is a crook.

VishMahabir posted:

I am no doctor but from what I know so far about Guyana politics, I share these opinions....some of these are conjectures and my own biases..there are obviously knowledgeable people here who know a lot more than me...hopefully I can learn from them:

1) ...Ali’s selection indicates very clearly that should the PPP win the election, it will continue the Jagdeo agenda that was interrupted when the party lost power in 2015...

I believe this is a myth being peddled by the PNC (the likes of Hinds, Ogunsese, etc). Look at it this way: there seems to be more interest froups (TI, etc) that will play a watchful eye on any government, making it difficult for ANY government to become corrupt while in office. There is now much information to consider since 2015, and one would like to think that Guyanese are much smarter to the lies of politicians today, than before.

2) ...Jagdeo agenda [is] of ethnic dominance and the criminalized state. In effect, I see an Ali presidency as a Jagdeo fourth term.

This is a reflection of Hinds bias. Afros will not allow the PPP government to establish any kind of dominance. They will make this clear before and after the election (should the PPP win). Like it or not, the PNC will force the PPP to institutionalize constitutional reform that will prevent this from happening. Street protest has always worked well for the PNC.

3. ...given his close ties to the Jagdeo agenda, Ali is in effect the best candidate for that section of the PPP’s base

This may be true...but it leaves littre room for the unexpected...How do we know Ali is not smart enough to understand that he needs to find ways to demonstrate that he is not a puppet, with Jagdeo pulling his strings?

4...whatever his negatives—and there are two that have been in the news—I don’t think those would negatively affect his candidacy among the PPP’s wider base. 

I agree. Indos will vote for the PPP, regardless of who the Presidential or Prime Ministerial candidate is. Race is a key factor.

5...is Ali’s relative youth an asset? I am not so sure. As I indicated above, if he is tied to the old agenda then his youthfulness matters very little..

I disagree. His youth can be, given that most young people might be disenchanted with both parties. Hinds' analysis does not consider other variables...like having a credible PM candidate and having a good Public Relations managing the PPP's and Ali's image. 

6. ...the PPP has chosen a Muslim as its standard bearer. ... it could also be read as a submerging of religious contradictions in favor of the ethno-political imperatives.

This is an asinine statement that makes no sense. Hinds sees everything through a racial prism. The PNC might be inclined to exploit this but Irfan is married to a Hindu (I believe).

jes my 2 cents.

This is merely your Indian bias.  In fact under Jagdeo the pro Indian anti black bias was clearly evident.  Blacks were all but completely removed from top leadership slots, that is aside from stooges like Sam Hinds, who hasn't had a reputation for standing up for fair treatment of blacks.  In fact Sam Hinds main activity was telling blacks that they were stupid for not supporting the PPP.

So where is this "dominance" by blacks during the PPP.  The fact that most of the $200/month jobs were held by them?  Yes jobs that most Indians derisively called "black man jobs" because of the meager pay!  Even Juan Edhgill admitted that within the public sector blacks were concentrated in the lower and mid tiers and Indians in the upper tier, though he declined to state why.

The fact that Irfan is a Muslim is irrelevant. He represented one of the most odious characters in the Jagdeo/Ramotar administration.  All that helps him is that many within the Coalition gov't are equally odious so David is right to state that Irfan's corrupt nature cannot be their focus.

Now I look forwards to see which useless House Negro will be selected to be the PM.  I can assure you that it will never be one who was noted for speaking up on behalf of Afro Guyanese, and so having a credible following amongst them.

yuji22 posted:

Nehru Bhai,

No Indo is good enough for the Afrocentric Hinds. He is a POS, Moses should have stuck a bigger stick up his rear !

He loves carrying Granger’s posey. He clearly stated that he supports and prefers the Incompetent PNC !

Let him go and lick Granger’s ball*

Funny. Just last week you were praising him for criticizing the behavior of APNU.

He isnt an Uncle Tom Negro who does as his Indo massa commands so you dont like him.

David Hinds is an independent thinker who doesnt care that neither people like you nor people like Volda like him.  

It is evident that, despite Gilbakka's loyal and slavish praising of the PPP that its the same tiger with the same spots.  I guess RK is expected back in Guyana later this year so you all think that we will be back to where we were then.

A PPP minister was killed in that era, allegedly by a man connected to the PPP who didn't get what he wanted so he had to teach people a lesson.  US gov't WikiLeaks releases details all of this, and it was much discussed on GNI.

D2 posted:
The majority of Guyanese presently think Jagdeo is a crook. He can never live that down. The PPP candidate, especially this tainted one will not get an easy time winning the office. Chances are highly likely he will lose because of the visceral rejection of the Guyanese people of placing the hands of one they think is a crook.

This is your opinion and not a fact. You folks try to blur the lines between fact and opinion to the point that you yourself don't know the difference. Is this why you folks were so petrified of him running for a 3rd term? If the majority of Guyanese perceive him to be a crook then you should have let him run and be embarrassed at the polls. 

Drugb posted:
D2 posted:
The majority of Guyanese presently think Jagdeo is a crook. He can never live that down. The PPP candidate, especially this tainted one will not get an easy time winning the office. Chances are highly likely he will lose because of the visceral rejection of the Guyanese people of placing the hands of one they think is a crook.

This is your opinion and not a fact. 

The election in 2011 and in 2015 was perceived to be dominated by Jagdeo. Everyone knew that Ramotar was Jagdeo's stooge and the fact that he was slapped up and dumped by Jagdeo just proves this fact.

Irfaan is another Ramotar, similarly dumb and lacking charisma, but with a reputation of exceeding corruption on top of this.

You can say that Jagdeo lost the last 2 national elections and might well lose his 3rd.

Btw the laws of Guyana preclude a 3rd term.  So its not up to who wants Jagdeo to do so. His inability to do so was affirmed by the CCJ.  Go check Google to see what the CCJ is.

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