I have done this analysis a long time, present information here on GNI. Yvonne Sam is on the same page.

Compared to Freddie's article which was clear and concise. This article is all jumbled up and filled with wild conjectures.

The reality is mixed races are culturally identified and aligned. People cannot exist outside a culture and creole culture has no firm identity anchors. It is a public space experience. When push comes to shove many of the mixed races will jump to the side or the other they self identify with. 

Many people in Guyana do not vote race, that is why the PNC won the last Election.

Nehru posted:

Many people in Guyana do not vote race, that is why the PNC won the last Election.

U sure u got this rite?

Sure. But to figure it out you have to know 33>32

Sheik101 posted:

Nehru posted:

Many people in Guyana do not vote race, that is why the PNC won the last Election.

U sure u got this rite?

99% of blacks who voted in 2015 voted for the mostly PNC Coalition. Only about sixty something present of Indians who voted, voted for the PPP. It shows an almost complete tribal voting pattern amongst the black community. Yet the evil PNC is nervous about elections.

Nehru posted:

Sure. But to figure it out you have to know 33>32

I think guyanese do vote race. Like it or not. I believe the last time around tho the guyanese people voted for change, whether they got it or not. The PNC pulled it off by championing for National Unity as the party name suggest. Guyanese, I feel wanted such unity. But your god Jagdeo didn't see this angle. He was too busy up at babu jaan driving fear into people how de blackman gon rape dem. In this case, fear was not the key.  That's not how u win elections Just my opinion.

The GPF and GDF voted 99% for the PNC. These people were treated like KINGS under the PNC. Go figure!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Sheik101 posted:

Nehru posted:

Sure. But to figure it out you have to know 33>32

I think guyanese do vote race. Like it or not. I believe the last time around tho the guyanese people voted for change, whether they got it or not. The PNC pulled it off by championing for National Unity as the party name suggest. Guyanese, I feel wanted such unity. But your god Jagdeo didn't see this angle. He was too busy up at babu jaan driving fear into people how de blackman gon rape dem. In this case, fear was not the key.  That's not how u win elections Just my opinion.

I think that people got tired of seeing the same party in government. Like Obama said. Voters want to experience that 'new car scent'. Nothing is wrong with change when it is an improvement. The trouble was that the PNC by whatever name they try to disguise themselves is never an improvement to any other alternative in Guyana. And in less than 4 years, many of those people have come to that unfortunate realization.

tHANK YOU kASCZ AND WHAT YOU ARE EXPLAINING IS SIMPLE for everyone to understand except the DJ, carib and others!!!

Race voting is still there, see attachment  Region 4 , 2015 Elections. This Region have close to 50 % of Electors.

Sheik101 posted:

Nehru posted:

Many people in Guyana do not vote race, that is why the PNC won the last Election.

U sure u got this rite?

Nehru posted:

Sure. But to figure it out you have to know 33>32

Bhai Nehru, the PNCR counts haphazardly hence their versions.

Django posted:

I have done this analysis a long time, present information here on GNI. Yvonne Sam is on the same page.

Who are the mixed people?

Blacks (and some Indians) who want to distance themselves from their core ancestry, using a fact (or a myth), of some remote ancestor of a distant ancestry. 

Others like Raphael Trotman who use it for political expediency.  I bet in 1980 Trotman was unreservedly "black" but became "mixed" when he was part of the setting up of the "non racial" AFC.  Like most Afro Guyanese, especially those in the middle class Trotman (though predominantly African) does have some non African ancestry that he can parade as he sees fit.

Others because they have two parents of different ancestries and yet others whose ancestries are so jumbled that they are unable to identify with one of Guyana's 6 races.

Region 10 reports as being about 35-40% mixed.  To those who define this as Linden it will come as a shock that under 60% self identify as "African/black".  Of course places like Kwakwani is majority mixed as are several spots upriver.

I hardly think that mixed people are a constituency in the way that Indians, Africans, and Amerindians are.  Mixed people therefore have no singular response to Guyanese politics in the way that Indians and Africans do. 

What we know is that 30% of Guyanese self identify as "African" and yet the PNC knows that their base is at a minimum 41% of the voters. The PNC gets limited East Indian or Amerindian support. 20-25% of their base are mixed identified, and this might account for over 60% of the mixed identified voters. This suggests to me that a large number of Mixed people are part of the PNC's CORE constituency.

And of course there is another aspect. Over the past 30 years as Guyanese have become more urbanized and as the tribal cultural barriers weaken there has been more miscegenation among the 3 largest groups.  The other groups are now so small as to be forced to marry interracially, this adding yet another layer. 

That same census indicates that its Regions 1,2,4. 7, and 10 which are the most mixed. Rural areas like 3, 5, and 6 as well as the overwhelmingly Amerindian 8 and 9 are less so.  Bartica and the Pomeroon are renowned for being majority mixed areas.  As more Guyanese move to the interior miscegenation increases.

Yes she is right that in a few years, as these products of increased miscegenation mature   Guyana will become a less tribal nation with softer boundaries separating the groups.  Skeldon/yuji and other bigots who scream about "honor killings" if a relative brings blacks into the family networks will either be dead or will be considered abnormal.

Stormborn posted:

The reality is mixed races are culturally identified and aligned.

So Trotman is aligned with you?  What about Granger's kids?  Does some kid in Bartica, of mixed African and Amerindian ancestry identify with a Corentyne Indian who has Scottish ancestors. 

No ethnic group in Guyana is monolithic.  I can assure you that the "mixed" group aren't an ethnicity, so even less monolithic.

ksazma posted:

 

99% of blacks who voted in 2015 voted for the mostly PNC Coalition. Only about sixty something present of Indians who voted, voted for the PPP. It shows an almost complete tribal voting pattern amongst the black community. Yet the evil PNC is nervous about elections.

Continue to fool yourself with that 60% number. The PPP won at a minimum 85% of the Indian votes.  They certainly won 99% on the Corentyne.  The Indo vote that they don't dominate might be the GT Indo vote. 

Where did the PPP get 49.5% of the votes from?  The voter base is at least 75% Indo/Afro identified.  The PPP did better in 2015 than it did in 2011 in Regions 2.3. 5 and 6.  There was a higher than usual turnout of the PNC base in GT and in Linden and I bet that applied to black villages throughout coastal Guyana.

The PPP vote in 2015 was 26k HIGHER than it was in 2011.  APNU+AFC was only 32k higher.  The PPP INCREASED its share of the votes in Regions 3, 5 and 6.  The Coalition benefitted from the higher turnout in Regions 4, 7, and 10.

The last election was just as tribal as were all the previous ones.  What happened was a HIGHER turnout of the base.  The AFC didn't contribute any thing in Regions 5 and 6. 

In Region 5 and 6 the APNU+AFC remained almost unchanged even as the PPP vote increased significantly.  Given that a relatively high % of region 5 consists of African/mixed people and in other parts of Guyana those people turned out in larger than normal numbers I very much doubt whether this didn't occur in that region or in New Amsterdam.

The AFC lost its rural Indian base in 2015.  To the extent that it brought in Indo votes these were in the urban areas, where it does appear as if the PPP has been losing ground.

So toss away your 60% Indians voted for the PPP nonsense.  The election results don't indicate this.

The winner of the next election will depend on  3 factors.

1.  Turnout of the "tribal"  (Indian/African) vote.

2.  Which party wins the "non tribals" which are those who are less inclined to vote purely on a racial basis.

3. which party wins the Amerindians.

Tribals are now disaffected by their parties even as they cannot bring themselves to support other parties.  More Guyanese might becoming non tribal, as some claim being true for the Millennials.  The Amerindians might just stay home.