Analysis: Linden shootings might have sunk PPP/C

While one can't argue with that fact about the Linden results, keeping votes from previous elections as well as increasing votes in other Regions are important also. Win Linden by a net of 5,000 votes but lose Berbice by a net 5,000 means a push.

There are several variables responsible for sinking the PPP.

I will say so having looked more indepth in the voting. 

Moses attracted more votes in the rural areas, but the PPPs scare vote offset this. Obviously many who stayed home in 2011 came out this time in response to the PPP tribal beat.  In Region 6 Moses/New Amsterdam accounted for 22300 votes in 2011 and 22100 this time. All of the increase in turn out in Region 6 went to the PPP.  In region 5 the increase in the Moses vote was offset by a bigger increase in the PPP vote.  Ditto in Regions 2 and 3.

So Moses did energize an anti PPP sentiment among Indians, but he was also a lightening rod which energized many to vote against him, responding to the PPP scare campaign.

Where APNU AFC significantly increased their vote was in Regions 7 and 10.  Given the connectedness in these two areas it is likely that Bartica/Mahdia would have shared the Lindeners pain.

This was the small shift which cost the PPP the election.

What is noteworthy is that even though Region 10s economic problems has cause the population to fall this was the HIGHEST ever voter turn out since 1992!

Kari let me break it down for you.

Region 2 APNU/AFC vote increased by 1900.  The PPPs by 3500.  Net gain to PPP'

Region 3 APNU/AFC vote increased by 3600.  PPP by 7000. Net gain to PPP.

Region 5 APNU/AFC vote increased by 1400.  PPP increased by 3100.  Net gain to PPP.

Region 6 APNU/AFC DECLINED by 200.  PPP increased by 7000.  SIGNIFICANY gain by the PPP.

So while Moses did attract more support the PPP was able to engineer a backlash against his coalition with a PNC led group to get many who had stopped voting to support them.

In Region 4 18000 more voted APNU/AFC vs 9200 more for the PPP.  Net gain to APNU/AFC.  But the PPP share remained the same at 39%, roughly in line with the Indian share of the population.

In Region 7 APNU AFC gained 1300 more votes vs 300 more for the PPP.  In Region 10 APNU AFC gained 4200 more votes while the PPP lost 100.  4200+1300=5500 which was the margin of victory.

The status quo in coastal Guyana remains.  The PPP regained lost ground in the deep interior.  It is in these mining areas where there was a shift due to higher turn out.

Bottom line is that Guyana remains politically divided with an African/mixed and swing Indian vote on one side, and an East Indian and Amerindian on the other.

True but while Moses can certainly be credited for a higher turn out (both for and against him), he certainly cannot be leveled as the singular factor as some here will try to do.

Until we have a breakdown by race or by individual polling stations (SoP) and collate these wit hthe racial population types, Caribny is yet to tell us how he arrived at his conclusions about who Moses got and who left him among Indians. The specious use of overall macro numbers for each Region and showing the deltas from the last elections is not rigorous analysis for his conclusion.

What we can surmise from knowledge - intuitive and anecdotal, among others - is that rural agricultural and industrial agricultural regions (Region 2 and 6 and to some extent 3) gave strong support to the PPP. The more urban, suburban and more industrial (read East Bank and East Coast Demerara) gave strong support for the coalition. With a strong Indian racial component we can conclude that Moses didwell among this demographic in play - urban and suburban Indians and Mixed. We must not forget that his coalition move gave all those APNU urban voters reason to go vote thus accounting for the increased turnout for instance in Linden.

So Caribny, to quote Chief......SYP!

Kari I looked at the results provided by GECOM.

Now ask yourself where did the increased vote for the PPP in Regions 2,3,4,5 and 6 come from?  And why did the PPP attract this higher vote.

Except for region 4 the PPP enjoyed a net gain.

The coastal vote was a wash.  Higher turn out on both sides.

In the highly urbanized Region 4 APNU AFC won 61% of the votes in 2011 and the SAME 61% on Monday.

The margin of victory came from Linden and Bartica.  An increase of 5500 votes right there.  If they voted as they did in 2011 the PPP would be celebrating.