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ba$eman posted:
 
 

Well, which is the chicken and which is the egg.  Did the migration cause businesses to fail or did the failure of businesses and the general economy cause people to migrate?

 

Haul yuh racist ass dah side. More people migrated from under PPP/C regime. Look at the decline of the Indo population during the 23 years that PPP/C occupied office. Stop being a slave to your racist mentality.

Mitwah
Zed posted:

Electricity cost is one Factor in the decision matrix, but not the most important one. There are many more important factors that need to be considered.

Zed, what field were you involved in?  I think it is a fundamental understanding that energy, mainly cheap and reliable electricity, is the most important factor in the development of any country.

What other factors are you implying?  Political stability, human capital etc.?

Again, i think cheap and reliable electricity is the most important.

FM
VVP posted:
Zed posted:

Electricity cost is one Factor in the decision matrix, but not the most important one. There are many more important factors that need to be considered.

Zed, what field were you involved in?  I think it is a fundamental understanding that energy, mainly cheap and reliable electricity, is the most important factor in the development of any country.

What other factors are you implying?  Political stability, human capital etc.?

Again, i think cheap and reliable electricity is the most important.

VVP...I have a question for you. Let's say the hydro is up and running. Would there be no blackouts?

FM
ba$eman posted:

This was also part of the findings and conclusion of NORAD.  In the end, BJ and the PPP will be vindicated!
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

AFHP was prioritised as the first hydropower plant because it was the only project with a full feasibility study completed, it has a higher plant load factor than the alternatives, a smaller reservoir and a levelised unit cost in the same range as the most attractive alternatives.

This paragraph is the problem. So, Amaila was the ONLY project with full feasibility study completed. HENCE, how do we know that Amaila is the best choice when no feasibility study was done on alternatives. For example, Tiger Fall? You cannot speak of alternatives when you have not even assessed the opportunity cost or alternatives. I have not read the report, but if this is what it says I would have serious doubt.

 

FM
ba$eman posted:
TK posted:

Of course, Amailia is necessary in the long run, but it is a matter of sequencing and optimal timing. Anyone with a good understanding of microeconomics and project analysis would have seen the risk early, even before the engineers formalize it. This is was so obvious. I keep saying Jagdeo needs to overhaul Accrebre college. It needs to be less ideological and more nationalistic. BTW, before some people start yapping about manufacturing, just take a moment to observe that Guyana once manufactured refrigerators, stoves, small SUV (tapir), small and medium-sized ships, garments, tires, radios, consumer products like toothpaste, etc, as well as having a variety of first-rate food processing capabilities WITHOUT HYDROELECTRICITY.

All of these were within a "planned economic" model of the PNC.  They existed because of heavy subsidies from the Govt.  Furthermore, the world has changed quite a lot from back then.  If I remember, the Brits were still a big auto producer back then.  Furthermore, back then, Guyana still had a reliable power source, which was not being reinvested, thus the eventual collapse.  All these PNC initiatives were done at the expense of the underlying economic backbone, all of which eventually gave way under the weight of these non-viable enterprises.

However, let me add, I do believe some of the initiatives were actually good and should have been taken up by the PPP Govt. I believe the downstream food and beverage industry were areas of natural competitive advantage the PPP should have explored.

Many of these companies you mentioned went under because they were not viable under their own weight.  Durable goods are levied with high duties and yet locals such as GRL, GRECO, glass, cotton, etc, were never resuscitated by privates.  They were just not sustainable even with the GoG granting duty-free concession on capital equipment!

TK, you are a professional economist and should get over your hatred for BJ and the PPP and be a bit more objective and truthful regarding the successes and failings of both the PPP and PNC.  Just remember, Guyana went bankrupt under the PNC model!

 

Actually, none of those companies were started after independence. They were pre-independence companies. Many start leaving because of Cooperative Socialism. The ERP was the final straw.

FM
TK posted:
VVP posted:
Zed posted:

Electricity cost is one Factor in the decision matrix, but not the most important one. There are many more important factors that need to be considered.

Zed, what field were you involved in?  I think it is a fundamental understanding that energy, mainly cheap and reliable electricity, is the most important factor in the development of any country.

What other factors are you implying?  Political stability, human capital etc.?

Again, i think cheap and reliable electricity is the most important.

VVP...I have a question for you. Let's say the hydro is up and running. Would there be no blackouts?

The report itself recognize that there are periods of dry spell where Amaila cannot operate at full capacity.  At one point it said that the operation is more like a run of river type (which seems to me like there is not sufficient reservoir capability).  This means they would still have to carry backup generation to serve the load.  If Amaila cannot generate for lack of water flow they will have to have total load backup.  So if there is not sufficient backup there could be blackout.

No blackouts cannot be guaranteed, even in the USA where massive amounts are spent on reliability.  The loss of a transmission tower could result in blackout under the Amaila construct.  Gotta run.

FM
VVP posted:
TK posted:
VVP posted:
Zed posted:

Electricity cost is one Factor in the decision matrix, but not the most important one. There are many more important factors that need to be considered.

Zed, what field were you involved in?  I think it is a fundamental understanding that energy, mainly cheap and reliable electricity, is the most important factor in the development of any country.

What other factors are you implying?  Political stability, human capital etc.?

Again, i think cheap and reliable electricity is the most important.

VVP...I have a question for you. Let's say the hydro is up and running. Would there be no blackouts?

The report itself recognize that there are periods of dry spell where Amaila cannot operate at full capacity.  At one point it said that the operation is more like a run of river type (which seems to me like there is not sufficient reservoir capability).  This means they would still have to carry backup generation to serve the load.  If Amaila cannot generate for lack of water flow they will have to have total load backup.  So if there is not sufficient backup there could be blackout.

No blackouts cannot be guaranteed, even in the USA where massive amounts are spent on reliability.  The loss of a transmission tower could result in blackout under the Amaila construct.  Gotta run.

I only experienced ONE blackout in the US in 15 years. So, would this hydro put us in a situation of one blackout every 15 years? I would take that any day.

FM
VVP posted:
Zed posted:

Electricity cost is one Factor in the decision matrix, but not the most important one. There are many more important factors that need to be considered.

Zed, what field were you involved in?  I think it is a fundamental understanding that energy, mainly cheap and reliable electricity, is the most important factor in the development of any country.

What other factors are you implying?  Political stability, human capital etc.?

Again, i think cheap and reliable electricity is the most important.

I will mention Venezuela as my answer to your comments.

Z
TK posted:
ba$eman posted:

This was also part of the findings and conclusion of NORAD.  In the end, BJ and the PPP will be vindicated!
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

AFHP was prioritised as the first hydropower plant because it was the only project with a full feasibility study completed, it has a higher plant load factor than the alternatives, a smaller reservoir and a levelised unit cost in the same range as the most attractive alternatives.

This paragraph is the problem. So, Amaila was the ONLY project with full feasibility study completed. HENCE, how do we know that Amaila is the best choice when no feasibility study was done on alternatives. For example, Tiger Fall? You cannot speak of alternatives when you have not even assessed the opportunity cost or alternatives. I have not read the report, but if this is what it says I would have serious doubt.

 

They did evaluate others but come to the early conclusion that Amelia was the best.  You can argue they should have went to the enth degree however, they concluded on Amelia.

FM
Mitwah posted:

Why not harness smaller falls  and hook them up into a national grid? This might handle the constant blackout problems.

I'm sure after Amelia the Govt would be looking to harness others but you have to start somewhere.  Furthermore, having the fossil back up is also a viable and acceptable alternative.  What do you think will happen in a Solar power grid?

FM
TK posted:
ba$eman posted:

This was also part of the findings and conclusion of NORAD.  In the end, BJ and the PPP will be vindicated!
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

AFHP was prioritised as the first hydropower plant because it was the only project with a full feasibility study completed, it has a higher plant load factor than the alternatives, a smaller reservoir and a levelised unit cost in the same range as the most attractive alternatives.

This paragraph is the problem. So, Amaila was the ONLY project with full feasibility study completed. HENCE, how do we know that Amaila is the best choice when no feasibility study was done on alternatives. For example, Tiger Fall? You cannot speak of alternatives when you have not even assessed the opportunity cost or alternatives. I have not read the report, but if this is what it says I would have serious doubt.

 

Are you saying that back in 2008, Amelia falls was chosen from hat(Jagdeo and PPP randomly chose) and no other pre feasibility study was done on any other river to narrow the most feasible to be Amelia?

FM
TK posted:
ba$eman posted:
TK posted:

Of course, Amailia is necessary in the long run, but it is a matter of sequencing and optimal timing. Anyone with a good understanding of microeconomics and project analysis would have seen the risk early, even before the engineers formalize it. This is was so obvious. I keep saying Jagdeo needs to overhaul Accrebre college. It needs to be less ideological and more nationalistic. BTW, before some people start yapping about manufacturing, just take a moment to observe that Guyana once manufactured refrigerators, stoves, small SUV (tapir), small and medium-sized ships, garments, tires, radios, consumer products like toothpaste, etc, as well as having a variety of first-rate food processing capabilities WITHOUT HYDROELECTRICITY.

All of these were within a "planned economic" model of the PNC.  They existed because of heavy subsidies from the Govt.  Furthermore, the world has changed quite a lot from back then.  If I remember, the Brits were still a big auto producer back then.  Furthermore, back then, Guyana still had a reliable power source, which was not being reinvested, thus the eventual collapse.  All these PNC initiatives were done at the expense of the underlying economic backbone, all of which eventually gave way under the weight of these non-viable enterprises.

However, let me add, I do believe some of the initiatives were actually good and should have been taken up by the PPP Govt. I believe the downstream food and beverage industry were areas of natural competitive advantage the PPP should have explored.

Many of these companies you mentioned went under because they were not viable under their own weight.  Durable goods are levied with high duties and yet locals such as GRL, GRECO, glass, cotton, etc, were never resuscitated by privates.  They were just not sustainable even with the GoG granting duty-free concession on capital equipment!

TK, you are a professional economist and should get over your hatred for BJ and the PPP and be a bit more objective and truthful regarding the successes and failings of both the PPP and PNC.  Just remember, Guyana went bankrupt under the PNC model!

 

Actually, none of those companies were started after independence. They were pre-independence companies. Many start leaving because of Cooperative Socialism. The ERP was the final straw.

Nonsense, GRL was built in Soesdyke in the 70's, I saw it constructed as a school boy.  The glass factory was built by the Chinese on the Linden highway in the 70's.  The Tapir was built by Ainlim, in the 70's.  I did a school tour of GRECO on the East Coast in the 70's when it was just set up.  I agree ship-building (FIL) was pre-independence, but that was a victim of the industrial economics.

All those initiatives were kicked off after Guyana became a republic when the PNC tried to industrialize Guyana.  This was a good thought, but not all were ever viable.  They bled the existing economic engines and everything collapsed.

All these Guy-brands surfaced in the 70's!

FM
Last edited by Former Member
Billy Ram Balgobin posted:

Discrediting Jagdeo at the expense of our economy is the silliest thing this gov't. can do.  They don't want Jagdeo's name to be associated with a major project like this.  This is the real reason for their opposition to the project.

Billy, cost of the project have to taken in to consideration,the size of Amelia hydro plant seems high comparable to others of the same size built in different countries.

Django
Last edited by Django
Drugb posted:
TK posted:
ba$eman posted:

This was also part of the findings and conclusion of NORAD.  In the end, BJ and the PPP will be vindicated!
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

AFHP was prioritised as the first hydropower plant because it was the only project with a full feasibility study completed, it has a higher plant load factor than the alternatives, a smaller reservoir and a levelised unit cost in the same range as the most attractive alternatives.

This paragraph is the problem. So, Amaila was the ONLY project with full feasibility study completed. HENCE, how do we know that Amaila is the best choice when no feasibility study was done on alternatives. For example, Tiger Fall? You cannot speak of alternatives when you have not even assessed the opportunity cost or alternatives. I have not read the report, but if this is what it says I would have serious doubt.

 

Are you saying that back in 2008, Amelia falls was chosen from hat(Jagdeo and PPP randomly chose) and no other pre feasibility study was done on any other river to narrow the most feasible to be Amelia?

X = Amaila; Y = Alternative. The report clearly says detail studies were done on X, but not the set of Y. If that's the case, the report cannot logically say anything about alternative hydro options. What it can say is that Amaila would likely be an improvement over the present 100% fossil fuel source, it's US$1 bill risk in a US$ 3 bill GDP economy notwithstanding. I think given this report the time has come to start implementing Amaila, knowing that in the history of big projects in Guyana there has always been cost overruns.

FM
ba$eman posted:
TK posted:
ba$eman posted:
TK posted:

Of course, Amailia is necessary in the long run, but it is a matter of sequencing and optimal timing. Anyone with a good understanding of microeconomics and project analysis would have seen the risk early, even before the engineers formalize it. This is was so obvious. I keep saying Jagdeo needs to overhaul Accrebre college. It needs to be less ideological and more nationalistic. BTW, before some people start yapping about manufacturing, just take a moment to observe that Guyana once manufactured refrigerators, stoves, small SUV (tapir), small and medium-sized ships, garments, tires, radios, consumer products like toothpaste, etc, as well as having a variety of first-rate food processing capabilities WITHOUT HYDROELECTRICITY.

All of these were within a "planned economic" model of the PNC.  They existed because of heavy subsidies from the Govt.  Furthermore, the world has changed quite a lot from back then.  If I remember, the Brits were still a big auto producer back then.  Furthermore, back then, Guyana still had a reliable power source, which was not being reinvested, thus the eventual collapse.  All these PNC initiatives were done at the expense of the underlying economic backbone, all of which eventually gave way under the weight of these non-viable enterprises.

However, let me add, I do believe some of the initiatives were actually good and should have been taken up by the PPP Govt. I believe the downstream food and beverage industry were areas of natural competitive advantage the PPP should have explored.

Many of these companies you mentioned went under because they were not viable under their own weight.  Durable goods are levied with high duties and yet locals such as GRL, GRECO, glass, cotton, etc, were never resuscitated by privates.  They were just not sustainable even with the GoG granting duty-free concession on capital equipment!

TK, you are a professional economist and should get over your hatred for BJ and the PPP and be a bit more objective and truthful regarding the successes and failings of both the PPP and PNC.  Just remember, Guyana went bankrupt under the PNC model!

 

Actually, none of those companies were started after independence. They were pre-independence companies. Many start leaving because of Cooperative Socialism. The ERP was the final straw.

Nonsense, GRL was built in Soesdyke in the 70's, I saw it constructed as a school boy.  The glass factory was built by the Chinese on the Linden highway in the 70's.  The Tapir was built by Ainlim, in the 70's.  I did a school tour of GRECO on the East Coast in the 70's when it was just set up.  I agree ship-building (FIL) was pre-independence, but that was a victim of the industrial economics.

All those initiatives were kicked off after Guyana became a republic when the PNC tried to industrialize Guyana.  This was a good thought, but not all were ever viable.  They bled the existing economic engines and everything collapsed.

All these Guy-brands surfaced in the 70's!

Well there you go. Forbes did do good stuff and without hydro, yet ayoo denigrate him for just being a blackman. If you just do some studies of industrial policy you will see that Toyota received 40 years of govt protection before it became the great company it is. Ditto Samsung, Daewoo and many others. This is why you guys will need to stop teaching PYO kids hogwash and give them perspectives that would make them better government planners when they win elections. PPP has never had trouble mobilizing politically. It's problems are governance in an ethnically divided kuntry. 

FM
Last edited by Former Member

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