Amaila Falls Hydropower Project now highly unlikely

Amaila Falls Hydropower Project now highly unlikely

By
 - SN
2 hours ago
 

The government today released the final report on the feasibility of the Amaila Falls Hydropower Project and the project now appears to be off the table as a number of risks have been pointed out by the author, Norconsult.

A statement from the Ministry of the Presidency follows:

Guyana’s long term energy plan for the transition to the increased use of renewable energy is expected to be presented to Cabinet by mid-January. Minister of Public Infrastructure, Mr. David Patterson, in an invited comment, earlier today, said that “final touches are being made to the draft document” and once Cabinet has had their input, it will be released to the wider public.  He also noted that the Government is committed to exploring all avenues for the development of renewable energy in keeping with its ‘green’ development agenda.

This comes even as the Government of Norway has released the report on the review of the Amaila Falls Hydropower Project (AFHP) done by Norconsult, an engineering and design consultancy firm out of Norway contracted by the Government of Norway to complete an ‘objective and facts-based’ assessment of the project on the agreement of two Governments.

Though the project is just one of several renewable energy options being looked at by Guyana, Government believes that the Report identifies several risks and flaws in the design of the project, which will threaten its long-term effectiveness and prove too costly and burdensome to the people of Guyana and the country as a small developing state.

The Amaila Falls

The Government considers this review of utmost importance as it provides indisputable evidence to support the position taken while in opposition that the Hydropower project in its current configuration does not meet minimum requirements to ensure its viability and longevity.  It is the view of the Government that the Norconsult Report has given credence to its position on the need for an energy mix to increase the country’s share of renewable energy by close to 100 percent by the year 2025. The Report also provides supporting evidence that the Amaila Falls Hydropower Project would not be optimal in its current model and presents an unbalanced risk to the Government and People of Guyana.

Rectifying the many issues identified will increase the total cost of the project substantially, thereby impacting the tariff rates from the outset. Additionally, there are at least six more years of work to be completed, including a minimum three years of water flow study and analysis on the project.

Having studied the Report and conscious of the specific needs of the country, the Government of Guyana proposes to utilise a mix of energy options, starting with less risky options such as solar and wind, as outlined in Budget 2017.

Provisions have been made for expansion of the scope of clean, alternative energy in the country resulting in more reliable electricity supply; the establishment of programmes to promote energy efficiency at a household level for financial savings to householders; budgetary allocations of almost $1 billion dollars for renewable energy and energy efficiency projects; the installation of solar photovoltaic (PV) systems on the rooftops of 64 Government buildings; the installation of a large scale solar farm in Mabaruma with smaller solar farms in Lethem, Mahdia and Bartica; a one off tax holiday concession of two years for corporation tax to the business community for the importation of items related to wind and solar energy investments, water treatment, waste disposal and recycling facilities and the replacement of inefficient lights with their energy efficient counterparts.

Itemised below are some of the risks and flaws identified in the report:

  • The absence of a separate flywheel between the turbine and the generator.  This is described by Norconsult as a highly uncommon design and impractical for vertical shaft units of a size as in the case of AFHP.  This requirement is also notably absent from the Engineering/Procurement/Construction (EPC) Contract drawings, the technical description of the project, the Bill of Quantities and in the Independent Engineer’s Due Diligence Report of 2013.
  • While the report acknowledges the existence of an escarpment just beyond the midway point of the tunnel routing alignment, creating a horizontal distance of about 1.2 km from the vertical pressure shaft inside the mountain ridge to the powerhouse at the end of the tunnel, this configuration has resulted in the pressure shaft and pressure tunnel being quite expensive plant components. The report goes on to state “Considering the longitudinal profile of the waterway and apparent suitable rock conditions, we find it surprising that an underground powerhouse is not mentioned anywhere as a project layout alternative”. This observation is also supported by a short note in the Independent Engineer’s (IE) report, which stated that more usually a powerhouse underground would have been expected under natural conditions as encountered at Amaila Falls.
  • Norconsult report further identifies the absence of several details from the Owner’s requirement including the “minimum requirement to overall plant efficiency, which includes the hydraulic losses in the waterway”. A major headache for the project is identified in the statement “The power plant is required to yield a certain output (MW) at a certain headwater level with no maximum figure set for the corresponding turbine water flow. Therefore the EPC Contractor could chose to diminish the cross area (diameter) of the tunnels in order to save cost and compensate by increasing the water flow. This would mean less energy production of the same amount of water and thereby a less efficient utilisation of the Amaila Falls as a hydropower resource.”
  • Norconsult further points out that “19 m head loss in about 3 km long headrace tunnel is higher than would be expected for a hydropower plant designed by traditional procedures for hydraulic optimisation”.  The report goes on to state that “the dimensions described for the pressure shaft and pressure tunnel are also not sufficient for satisfying requirements for regulation stability”.
  • Norconsult further notes the absence of any sediment handling methodology in the design of the plant. This is quite a serious issue since sedimentation can threaten the plant’s continued operation.
  • Norconsult also questions the steel lining proposed for the tunnel lining and notes that risks associated with this configuration can be reduced by an “expensive vertical core drilling from the surface and down the hole hydraulic splitting tests at different levels in the holes” or “Alternatively, the risk could be eliminated by assuming steel lining in the whole length from the powerhouse up to the top of the pressure shaft with a substantial additional cost, which would then be reflected in the tariff from the beginning.”
  • The report clearly establishes that the overall project layout chosen as the “Owner’s Requirement” for the EPC Contract may not be the optimum solution for the project. This is particularly informed by the report finding of absence of “any indication in the project material that these layouts have been compared with an alternative underground powerhouse location, which could eliminate the frequency stability problem and give substantial cost saving for the tunnel system and the generating units.”
  • The analyses of other renewable energy alternatives considered biomass, PV and wind projects.  Biomass while much cheaper at 4.4UScents/kWH which require clearing of large areas of forest since sufficient biomass is unavailable otherwise. The report further states “PV solar and wind projects were at the time more expensive than Amaila Falls with unit costs of 26 and 14 USc/kWh, respectively. However, recent projects in other developing countries have shown that the cost of PV solar and wind projects have dropped significantly and may now be more competitive (as part of energy mix) but from a system point of view, solar power is not sufficiently stable and can therefore not be recommended as the main source of power in the main grid. Solar may be used in off-grid areas with battery back-up and or in the main grid for generation during day-time, but it cannot function as source for base load power.”
Original Post
Zed posted:

It might be prudent holding off getting on your high horse until the full report is made available and other experts have had a time to study it and make comments. This is a statement coming out from the GoG.

Understood.  I have the report.

Zed posted:

It might be prudent holding off getting on your high horse until the full report is made available and other experts have had a time to study it and make comments. This is a statement coming out from the GoG.

Norway has the most reliable engineers for dams. I take them at their word.

This is the Conclusion from the report:

Conclusion
From a financial and economic point of view, development of Amaila Falls seems to be the optimal solution for meeting the electricity demand in Guyana. The project should be financially restructured in order to make it more attractive for GOG and potential investors. Since the perceived risks of investing in Guyana are high, mainly due to political and regulatory reasons, one possible way for Norway to support the project would be to issue guarantees to the project for the repayment of the loan. This would reduce the financing costs substantially, and the risks for the equity sponsor of the project. We recommend that possible guarantee support mechanisms are evaluated as part of the further work on the project.
The financing challenge as a result of the perceived risk of investing in Guyana would be the same for all projects of a similar size, and substituting AFHP with another hydropower project of a similar size would not make any difference. With the suggested financial restructuring of the project, the annual payments from GPL may be reduced by 20% compared to the original proposal, and the annual costs for GPL would significantly lower than operating the existing thermal plants in Guyana.

Here is an interesting paragraph in the report:

Amaila Falls alone cannot provide a 100% emission free power generation in Guyana. Other generating sources will have to be added in parallel like sun, wind and thermal production based on emission neutral fuel (bagasse) for back-up in the dry periods when the water flow to AFHP may be insufficient for full capacity operation. As the power demand is growing, and for reaching the goal of 100% emission free generation by 2025, as assumed by the LCDS, a second hydropower plant of capacity comparable with AFHP will have to be commissioned by 2025. In parallel with preparations for AFHP, therefore, pre-feasibility studies will have to be carried out for promising candidates for the second hydropower project and a full feasibility study be performed for the selected candidate.

Another paragraph:

Our estimate is that 3 years will be required from a decision is taken to resume project preparation for AFHP until Financial Close and Notice to Commence to the EPC Contractor.
From this point in time, we estimate another 3.5 years for construction until start commercial operation of Amaila Falls Hydropower Project.

Of course, Amailia is necessary in the long run, but it is a matter of sequencing and optimal timing. Anyone with a good understanding of microeconomics and project analysis would have seen the risk early, even before the engineers formalize it. This is was so obvious. I keep saying Jagdeo needs to overhaul Accrebre college. It needs to be less ideological and more nationalistic. BTW, before some people start yapping about manufacturing, just take a moment to observe that Guyana once manufactured refrigerators, stoves, small SUV (tapir), small and medium-sized ships, garments, tires, radios, consumer products like toothpaste, etc, as well as having a variety of first-rate food processing capabilities WITHOUT HYDROELECTRICITY.

TK, nice to see that you are back on the board. Now, I can continue my training in economics.

i think Accrebe College is no longer in existence. The PPP sold the land a long time ago to Mazarally and purchased a piece of land in LBI where they intended to build. College. It never materialized so every morning, from my hammock, I look across to this large vacant plot of land.

I am unsure what you mean when you say that the ppp should be less ideological and more nationalistic. Many of us who have been following things in Guyana have criticized Jagdeo for not paying enough attention to ideology.

yes, Guyana manufactured these items, but at what cost. And all of these ventures failed. Additionally, we are living in a more globalize economy and I am not certain that those enterprises will survive if re-established in Guyana at this time. Electricity cost is one Factor in the decision matrix, but not the most important one. There are many more important factors that need to be considered.

Zed posted:

TK, nice to see that you are back on the board. Now, I can continue my training in economics.

i think Accrebe College is no longer in existence. The PPP sold the land a long time ago to Mazarally and purchased a piece of land in LBI where they intended to build. College. It never materialized so every morning, from my hammock, I look across to this large vacant plot of land.

I am unsure what you mean when you say that the ppp should be less ideological and more nationalistic. Many of us who have been following things in Guyana have criticized Jagdeo for not paying enough attention to ideology.

yes, Guyana manufactured these items, but at what cost. And all of these ventures failed. Additionally, we are living in a more globalize economy and I am not certain that those enterprises will survive if re-established in Guyana at this time. Electricity cost is one Factor in the decision matrix, but not the most important one. There are many more important factors that need to be considered.

One of the main reasons why those businesses failed was because of migration of the people who had the know how to do them. Then, the trade liberalization under Hoyte's ERP was another factor. If they survived they would have evolved into being more competitive and in case the country would have had at least two big hydros by now. Electricity is only one aspect of the cost of business in that country, and places like DDL and Banks are generating electricity at rates consistent with the proposed Amaila. That Jagdeo refuses to remove Marxism-Leninism from PPP constitution suggests he is ideological, although his business interests tend to muddy the ideological basis.

I was not aware Accrebre is defunct. It was fun attending it even if it was ideology with no nationalist or historical appreciation. It was fun having short lectures Dr Luncheon, Dr Jagan, Dr Henry Jeffrey, Mr Feroz Mohamed, Pandit Reepu and others. Even as a 19 year old kid, I knew what they were saying made little sense, but it was cute extreme left-wing stuff. That's why I went on to UG and eventually to America's No. 1 Progressive University.

 

 I never attended it, nor accepted any of the scholarships. I was too much of a free thinker and well read by the time I completed high school.

jagdeo's refusal to remove Marxism -Leninism is more a product of internal party politics and personal hegemonic imperatives than an adherence to that ideology.  I cannot think of any economic policy initiative that he implemented in his years as president that emanated from that ideology.

TK posted:

Of course, Amailia is necessary in the long run, but it is a matter of sequencing and optimal timing. Anyone with a good understanding of microeconomics and project analysis would have seen the risk early, even before the engineers formalize it. This is was so obvious. I keep saying Jagdeo needs to overhaul Accrebre college. It needs to be less ideological and more nationalistic. BTW, before some people start yapping about manufacturing, just take a moment to observe that Guyana once manufactured refrigerators, stoves, small SUV (tapir), small and medium-sized ships, garments, tires, radios, consumer products like toothpaste, etc, as well as having a variety of first-rate food processing capabilities WITHOUT HYDROELECTRICITY.

All of these were within a "planned economic" model of the PNC.  They existed because of heavy subsidies from the Govt.  Furthermore, the world has changed quite a lot from back then.  If I remember, the Brits were still a big auto producer back then.  Furthermore, back then, Guyana still had a reliable power source, which was not being reinvested, thus the eventual collapse.  All these PNC initiatives were done at the expense of the underlying economic backbone, all of which eventually gave way under the weight of these non-viable enterprises.

However, let me add, I do believe some of the initiatives were actually good and should have been taken up by the PPP Govt. I believe the downstream food and beverage industry were areas of natural competitive advantage the PPP should have explored.

Many of these companies you mentioned went under because they were not viable under their own weight.  Durable goods are levied with high duties and yet locals such as GRL, GRECO, glass, cotton, etc, were never resuscitated by privates.  They were just not sustainable even with the GoG granting duty-free concession on capital equipment!

TK, you are a professional economist and should get over your hatred for BJ and the PPP and be a bit more objective and truthful regarding the successes and failings of both the PPP and PNC.  Just remember, Guyana went bankrupt under the PNC model!

 

This was also part of the findings and conclusion of NORAD.  In the end, BJ and the PPP will be vindicated!
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

The new government has confirmed its devotion to the Low Carbon Development Strategy (LCDS), which was introduced in 2009 by the former government and confirmed by its updated LCDS declaration in 2013. With the aim of finding a way forward for the transition of Guyana’s power generation system, Government of Guyana represented by the Minister of Finance and the Minister of Natural Resources and the Government of Norway represented by the Minister of Climate and Environment, decided in December 2015 to perform “an objective and facts-based” assessment of AFHP.

On June 20th 2016 NORAD (Norwegian Agency for Development Co-operation), in support of NICFI signed an agreement with Norconsult AS for carrying out an initial analysis. Main conclusions and recommendations are presented below: The only realistic path for Guyana towards an emission free electricity sector is by developing its hydropower potential. The fastest way forward is to maintain AFHP as the first major step for substituting its current oil fired generation.

AFHP was prioritised as the first hydropower plant because it was the only project with a full feasibility study completed, it has a higher plant load factor than the alternatives, a smaller reservoir and a levelised unit cost in the same range as the most attractive alternatives.

TK posted:
Zed posted:

TK, nice to see that you are back on the board. Now, I can continue my training in economics.

i think Accrebe College is no longer in existence. The PPP sold the land a long time ago to Mazarally and purchased a piece of land in LBI where they intended to build. College. It never materialized so every morning, from my hammock, I look across to this large vacant plot of land.

I am unsure what you mean when you say that the ppp should be less ideological and more nationalistic. Many of us who have been following things in Guyana have criticized Jagdeo for not paying enough attention to ideology.

yes, Guyana manufactured these items, but at what cost. And all of these ventures failed. Additionally, we are living in a more globalize economy and I am not certain that those enterprises will survive if re-established in Guyana at this time. Electricity cost is one Factor in the decision matrix, but not the most important one. There are many more important factors that need to be considered.

One of the main reasons why those businesses failed was because of migration of the people who had the know how to do them..

Well, which is the chicken and which is the egg.  Did the migration cause businesses to fail or did the failure of businesses and the general economy cause people to migrate?

My understanding and experience, Guyana's migration were people seeking better economic alternatives.  There were other factors, including PNC Afro-Centric apartheid, racism, oppression and police/military brutality.  However, most were seeking better economic outcomes in their lives!

How quickly people forget what the PNC represented!

ba$eman posted:
 
 

Well, which is the chicken and which is the egg.  Did the migration cause businesses to fail or did the failure of businesses and the general economy cause people to migrate?

 

Haul yuh racist ass dah side. More people migrated from under PPP/C regime. Look at the decline of the Indo population during the 23 years that PPP/C occupied office. Stop being a slave to your racist mentality.

Zed posted:

Electricity cost is one Factor in the decision matrix, but not the most important one. There are many more important factors that need to be considered.

Zed, what field were you involved in?  I think it is a fundamental understanding that energy, mainly cheap and reliable electricity, is the most important factor in the development of any country.

What other factors are you implying?  Political stability, human capital etc.?

Again, i think cheap and reliable electricity is the most important.

VVP posted:
Zed posted:

Electricity cost is one Factor in the decision matrix, but not the most important one. There are many more important factors that need to be considered.

Zed, what field were you involved in?  I think it is a fundamental understanding that energy, mainly cheap and reliable electricity, is the most important factor in the development of any country.

What other factors are you implying?  Political stability, human capital etc.?

Again, i think cheap and reliable electricity is the most important.

VVP...I have a question for you. Let's say the hydro is up and running. Would there be no blackouts?

ba$eman posted:

This was also part of the findings and conclusion of NORAD.  In the end, BJ and the PPP will be vindicated!
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

AFHP was prioritised as the first hydropower plant because it was the only project with a full feasibility study completed, it has a higher plant load factor than the alternatives, a smaller reservoir and a levelised unit cost in the same range as the most attractive alternatives.

This paragraph is the problem. So, Amaila was the ONLY project with full feasibility study completed. HENCE, how do we know that Amaila is the best choice when no feasibility study was done on alternatives. For example, Tiger Fall? You cannot speak of alternatives when you have not even assessed the opportunity cost or alternatives. I have not read the report, but if this is what it says I would have serious doubt.

 

ba$eman posted:
TK posted:

Of course, Amailia is necessary in the long run, but it is a matter of sequencing and optimal timing. Anyone with a good understanding of microeconomics and project analysis would have seen the risk early, even before the engineers formalize it. This is was so obvious. I keep saying Jagdeo needs to overhaul Accrebre college. It needs to be less ideological and more nationalistic. BTW, before some people start yapping about manufacturing, just take a moment to observe that Guyana once manufactured refrigerators, stoves, small SUV (tapir), small and medium-sized ships, garments, tires, radios, consumer products like toothpaste, etc, as well as having a variety of first-rate food processing capabilities WITHOUT HYDROELECTRICITY.

All of these were within a "planned economic" model of the PNC.  They existed because of heavy subsidies from the Govt.  Furthermore, the world has changed quite a lot from back then.  If I remember, the Brits were still a big auto producer back then.  Furthermore, back then, Guyana still had a reliable power source, which was not being reinvested, thus the eventual collapse.  All these PNC initiatives were done at the expense of the underlying economic backbone, all of which eventually gave way under the weight of these non-viable enterprises.

However, let me add, I do believe some of the initiatives were actually good and should have been taken up by the PPP Govt. I believe the downstream food and beverage industry were areas of natural competitive advantage the PPP should have explored.

Many of these companies you mentioned went under because they were not viable under their own weight.  Durable goods are levied with high duties and yet locals such as GRL, GRECO, glass, cotton, etc, were never resuscitated by privates.  They were just not sustainable even with the GoG granting duty-free concession on capital equipment!

TK, you are a professional economist and should get over your hatred for BJ and the PPP and be a bit more objective and truthful regarding the successes and failings of both the PPP and PNC.  Just remember, Guyana went bankrupt under the PNC model!

 

Actually, none of those companies were started after independence. They were pre-independence companies. Many start leaving because of Cooperative Socialism. The ERP was the final straw.

TK posted:
VVP posted:
Zed posted:

Electricity cost is one Factor in the decision matrix, but not the most important one. There are many more important factors that need to be considered.

Zed, what field were you involved in?  I think it is a fundamental understanding that energy, mainly cheap and reliable electricity, is the most important factor in the development of any country.

What other factors are you implying?  Political stability, human capital etc.?

Again, i think cheap and reliable electricity is the most important.

VVP...I have a question for you. Let's say the hydro is up and running. Would there be no blackouts?

The report itself recognize that there are periods of dry spell where Amaila cannot operate at full capacity.  At one point it said that the operation is more like a run of river type (which seems to me like there is not sufficient reservoir capability).  This means they would still have to carry backup generation to serve the load.  If Amaila cannot generate for lack of water flow they will have to have total load backup.  So if there is not sufficient backup there could be blackout.

No blackouts cannot be guaranteed, even in the USA where massive amounts are spent on reliability.  The loss of a transmission tower could result in blackout under the Amaila construct.  Gotta run.

VVP posted:
TK posted:
VVP posted:
Zed posted:

Electricity cost is one Factor in the decision matrix, but not the most important one. There are many more important factors that need to be considered.

Zed, what field were you involved in?  I think it is a fundamental understanding that energy, mainly cheap and reliable electricity, is the most important factor in the development of any country.

What other factors are you implying?  Political stability, human capital etc.?

Again, i think cheap and reliable electricity is the most important.

VVP...I have a question for you. Let's say the hydro is up and running. Would there be no blackouts?

The report itself recognize that there are periods of dry spell where Amaila cannot operate at full capacity.  At one point it said that the operation is more like a run of river type (which seems to me like there is not sufficient reservoir capability).  This means they would still have to carry backup generation to serve the load.  If Amaila cannot generate for lack of water flow they will have to have total load backup.  So if there is not sufficient backup there could be blackout.

No blackouts cannot be guaranteed, even in the USA where massive amounts are spent on reliability.  The loss of a transmission tower could result in blackout under the Amaila construct.  Gotta run.

I only experienced ONE blackout in the US in 15 years. So, would this hydro put us in a situation of one blackout every 15 years? I would take that any day.

TK posted:

I only experienced ONE blackout in the US in 15 years. So, would this hydro put us in a situation of one blackout every 15 years? I would take that any day.

We get here in New England during severe winter or stormy conditions,does not last very long.

VVP posted:
Zed posted:

Electricity cost is one Factor in the decision matrix, but not the most important one. There are many more important factors that need to be considered.

Zed, what field were you involved in?  I think it is a fundamental understanding that energy, mainly cheap and reliable electricity, is the most important factor in the development of any country.

What other factors are you implying?  Political stability, human capital etc.?

Again, i think cheap and reliable electricity is the most important.

I will mention Venezuela as my answer to your comments.

TK posted:
ba$eman posted:

This was also part of the findings and conclusion of NORAD.  In the end, BJ and the PPP will be vindicated!
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

AFHP was prioritised as the first hydropower plant because it was the only project with a full feasibility study completed, it has a higher plant load factor than the alternatives, a smaller reservoir and a levelised unit cost in the same range as the most attractive alternatives.

This paragraph is the problem. So, Amaila was the ONLY project with full feasibility study completed. HENCE, how do we know that Amaila is the best choice when no feasibility study was done on alternatives. For example, Tiger Fall? You cannot speak of alternatives when you have not even assessed the opportunity cost or alternatives. I have not read the report, but if this is what it says I would have serious doubt.

 

They did evaluate others but come to the early conclusion that Amelia was the best.  You can argue they should have went to the enth degree however, they concluded on Amelia.

Mitwah posted:

Why not harness smaller falls  and hook them up into a national grid? This might handle the constant blackout problems.

I'm sure after Amelia the Govt would be looking to harness others but you have to start somewhere.  Furthermore, having the fossil back up is also a viable and acceptable alternative.  What do you think will happen in a Solar power grid?

TK posted:
ba$eman posted:

This was also part of the findings and conclusion of NORAD.  In the end, BJ and the PPP will be vindicated!
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

AFHP was prioritised as the first hydropower plant because it was the only project with a full feasibility study completed, it has a higher plant load factor than the alternatives, a smaller reservoir and a levelised unit cost in the same range as the most attractive alternatives.

This paragraph is the problem. So, Amaila was the ONLY project with full feasibility study completed. HENCE, how do we know that Amaila is the best choice when no feasibility study was done on alternatives. For example, Tiger Fall? You cannot speak of alternatives when you have not even assessed the opportunity cost or alternatives. I have not read the report, but if this is what it says I would have serious doubt.

 

Are you saying that back in 2008, Amelia falls was chosen from hat(Jagdeo and PPP randomly chose) and no other pre feasibility study was done on any other river to narrow the most feasible to be Amelia?

TK posted:
ba$eman posted:
TK posted:

Of course, Amailia is necessary in the long run, but it is a matter of sequencing and optimal timing. Anyone with a good understanding of microeconomics and project analysis would have seen the risk early, even before the engineers formalize it. This is was so obvious. I keep saying Jagdeo needs to overhaul Accrebre college. It needs to be less ideological and more nationalistic. BTW, before some people start yapping about manufacturing, just take a moment to observe that Guyana once manufactured refrigerators, stoves, small SUV (tapir), small and medium-sized ships, garments, tires, radios, consumer products like toothpaste, etc, as well as having a variety of first-rate food processing capabilities WITHOUT HYDROELECTRICITY.

All of these were within a "planned economic" model of the PNC.  They existed because of heavy subsidies from the Govt.  Furthermore, the world has changed quite a lot from back then.  If I remember, the Brits were still a big auto producer back then.  Furthermore, back then, Guyana still had a reliable power source, which was not being reinvested, thus the eventual collapse.  All these PNC initiatives were done at the expense of the underlying economic backbone, all of which eventually gave way under the weight of these non-viable enterprises.

However, let me add, I do believe some of the initiatives were actually good and should have been taken up by the PPP Govt. I believe the downstream food and beverage industry were areas of natural competitive advantage the PPP should have explored.

Many of these companies you mentioned went under because they were not viable under their own weight.  Durable goods are levied with high duties and yet locals such as GRL, GRECO, glass, cotton, etc, were never resuscitated by privates.  They were just not sustainable even with the GoG granting duty-free concession on capital equipment!

TK, you are a professional economist and should get over your hatred for BJ and the PPP and be a bit more objective and truthful regarding the successes and failings of both the PPP and PNC.  Just remember, Guyana went bankrupt under the PNC model!

 

Actually, none of those companies were started after independence. They were pre-independence companies. Many start leaving because of Cooperative Socialism. The ERP was the final straw.

Nonsense, GRL was built in Soesdyke in the 70's, I saw it constructed as a school boy.  The glass factory was built by the Chinese on the Linden highway in the 70's.  The Tapir was built by Ainlim, in the 70's.  I did a school tour of GRECO on the East Coast in the 70's when it was just set up.  I agree ship-building (FIL) was pre-independence, but that was a victim of the industrial economics.

All those initiatives were kicked off after Guyana became a republic when the PNC tried to industrialize Guyana.  This was a good thought, but not all were ever viable.  They bled the existing economic engines and everything collapsed.

All these Guy-brands surfaced in the 70's!

Billy Ram Balgobin posted:

Discrediting Jagdeo at the expense of our economy is the silliest thing this gov't. can do.  They don't want Jagdeo's name to be associated with a major project like this.  This is the real reason for their opposition to the project.

Billy, cost of the project have to taken in to consideration,the size of Amelia hydro plant seems high comparable to others of the same size built in different countries.

Drugb posted:
TK posted:
ba$eman posted:

This was also part of the findings and conclusion of NORAD.  In the end, BJ and the PPP will be vindicated!
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

AFHP was prioritised as the first hydropower plant because it was the only project with a full feasibility study completed, it has a higher plant load factor than the alternatives, a smaller reservoir and a levelised unit cost in the same range as the most attractive alternatives.

This paragraph is the problem. So, Amaila was the ONLY project with full feasibility study completed. HENCE, how do we know that Amaila is the best choice when no feasibility study was done on alternatives. For example, Tiger Fall? You cannot speak of alternatives when you have not even assessed the opportunity cost or alternatives. I have not read the report, but if this is what it says I would have serious doubt.

 

Are you saying that back in 2008, Amelia falls was chosen from hat(Jagdeo and PPP randomly chose) and no other pre feasibility study was done on any other river to narrow the most feasible to be Amelia?

X = Amaila; Y = Alternative. The report clearly says detail studies were done on X, but not the set of Y. If that's the case, the report cannot logically say anything about alternative hydro options. What it can say is that Amaila would likely be an improvement over the present 100% fossil fuel source, it's US$1 bill risk in a US$ 3 bill GDP economy notwithstanding. I think given this report the time has come to start implementing Amaila, knowing that in the history of big projects in Guyana there has always been cost overruns.

ba$eman posted:
TK posted:
ba$eman posted:
TK posted:

Of course, Amailia is necessary in the long run, but it is a matter of sequencing and optimal timing. Anyone with a good understanding of microeconomics and project analysis would have seen the risk early, even before the engineers formalize it. This is was so obvious. I keep saying Jagdeo needs to overhaul Accrebre college. It needs to be less ideological and more nationalistic. BTW, before some people start yapping about manufacturing, just take a moment to observe that Guyana once manufactured refrigerators, stoves, small SUV (tapir), small and medium-sized ships, garments, tires, radios, consumer products like toothpaste, etc, as well as having a variety of first-rate food processing capabilities WITHOUT HYDROELECTRICITY.

All of these were within a "planned economic" model of the PNC.  They existed because of heavy subsidies from the Govt.  Furthermore, the world has changed quite a lot from back then.  If I remember, the Brits were still a big auto producer back then.  Furthermore, back then, Guyana still had a reliable power source, which was not being reinvested, thus the eventual collapse.  All these PNC initiatives were done at the expense of the underlying economic backbone, all of which eventually gave way under the weight of these non-viable enterprises.

However, let me add, I do believe some of the initiatives were actually good and should have been taken up by the PPP Govt. I believe the downstream food and beverage industry were areas of natural competitive advantage the PPP should have explored.

Many of these companies you mentioned went under because they were not viable under their own weight.  Durable goods are levied with high duties and yet locals such as GRL, GRECO, glass, cotton, etc, were never resuscitated by privates.  They were just not sustainable even with the GoG granting duty-free concession on capital equipment!

TK, you are a professional economist and should get over your hatred for BJ and the PPP and be a bit more objective and truthful regarding the successes and failings of both the PPP and PNC.  Just remember, Guyana went bankrupt under the PNC model!

 

Actually, none of those companies were started after independence. They were pre-independence companies. Many start leaving because of Cooperative Socialism. The ERP was the final straw.

Nonsense, GRL was built in Soesdyke in the 70's, I saw it constructed as a school boy.  The glass factory was built by the Chinese on the Linden highway in the 70's.  The Tapir was built by Ainlim, in the 70's.  I did a school tour of GRECO on the East Coast in the 70's when it was just set up.  I agree ship-building (FIL) was pre-independence, but that was a victim of the industrial economics.

All those initiatives were kicked off after Guyana became a republic when the PNC tried to industrialize Guyana.  This was a good thought, but not all were ever viable.  They bled the existing economic engines and everything collapsed.

All these Guy-brands surfaced in the 70's!

Well there you go. Forbes did do good stuff and without hydro, yet ayoo denigrate him for just being a blackman. If you just do some studies of industrial policy you will see that Toyota received 40 years of govt protection before it became the great company it is. Ditto Samsung, Daewoo and many others. This is why you guys will need to stop teaching PYO kids hogwash and give them perspectives that would make them better government planners when they win elections. PPP has never had trouble mobilizing politically. It's problems are governance in an ethnically divided kuntry. 

Perhaps since 2015, the decision on Amaila Hydropower development was previously made and it was a matter time to locate the information to support the preconceived views.

==============================

Guyana nixes plans for 165-MW Amaila Falls hydropower project

08/13/2015

Guyana Locator Map

The Guyana government has abandoned plans to develop the 165-MW Amaila Falls hydroelectric plant, citing numerous delays and potential cost overruns.

The project was to have been Guyana's first major hydropower plant and would have been located about 250 kilometers southwest of the capital city on the Kuribrong River.

Preliminary estimates reported in 2008 put the price of the plant between US$400 million and $500 million, with financing to have been provided by sources including the Inter-American Development Bank, World Bank and New York-based Sithe Global.

Sithe, which signed an agreement with the China Railway First Group (CRFG) in September 2012 to help co-finance Amaila Falls, had already invested at least $16 million in preparatory work before fully withdrawing its support for the project in August 2013.

The Guyanese government will now begin planning feasibility studies for a new large hydropower project in the country's northwestern region, according to Finance Minister Winston Jordan, who also said smaller regionalized plants will also likely be a consideration.

TK posted:

X = Amaila; Y = Alternative. The report clearly says detail studies were done on X, but not the set of Y. If that's the case, the report cannot logically say anything about alternative hydro options. What it can say is that Amaila would likely be an improvement over the present 100% fossil fuel source, it's US$1 bill risk in a US$ 3 bill GDP economy notwithstanding. I think given this report the time has come to start implementing Amaila, knowing that in the history of big projects in Guyana there has always been cost overruns.

Either you are being facetious or you really lack understanding. To determine that a feasibility study should be done on Amelia alone, who made this decision? Jagdeo and the PPP or was this choice made by engineers based on pre feasibility study of other rivers?

Drugb posted:
TK posted:

X = Amaila; Y = Alternative. The report clearly says detail studies were done on X, but not the set of Y. If that's the case, the report cannot logically say anything about alternative hydro options. What it can say is that Amaila would likely be an improvement over the present 100% fossil fuel source, it's US$1 bill risk in a US$ 3 bill GDP economy notwithstanding. I think given this report the time has come to start implementing Amaila, knowing that in the history of big projects in Guyana there has always been cost overruns.

Either you are being facetious or you really lack understanding. To determine that a feasibility study should be done on Amelia alone, who made this decision? Jagdeo and the PPP or was this choice made by engineers based on pre feasibility study of other rivers?

You cannot in pre-feasibility come up with one option. Things like hydro in a small country like Guyana have macroeconomic concerns, as well as the obvious engineering factors. How many pre-feasibility studies were done?

TK posted:

You cannot in pre-feasibility come up with one option. Things like hydro in a small country like Guyana have macroeconomic concerns, as well as the obvious engineering factors. How many pre-feasibility studies were done?

Sure you can. Sometimes there is clearly only one front runner when all factors are considered. What is evident is that you have no evidence that this was not done, yet your hatred for Jagdeo makes you jump to this conclusion. 

Drugb posted:
TK posted:

You cannot in pre-feasibility come up with one option. Things like hydro in a small country like Guyana have macroeconomic concerns, as well as the obvious engineering factors. How many pre-feasibility studies were done?

Sure you can. Sometimes there is clearly only one front runner when all factors are considered. What is evident is that you have no evidence that this was not done, yet your hatred for Jagdeo makes you jump to this conclusion. 

What you fail to understand is the govt has the inside information. Observers are basing opinion on what the govt proposes and makes available. The govt is the caretaker and not the owner. It's like the CEO who is the agent acting on behalf of the owners/shareholders or principals. The CEO provides all sorts of information to analysts so that the principals can know their money is being invested well. But like the typical village idiot, you see my motives has hating Jagdeo. BTW, you have multiple choices for hydros.

TK posted:

.. BTW, before some people start yapping about manufacturing, .

The Dominican Republic and Puerto Rico have well established manufacturing sectors. Even Jamaica has a decent manufacturing sector.

The excuse offered by the PPP that energy explains why Guyana's manufacturing sector is small is ridiculous.

The DR and PR rely on the same sources of energy as does Guyana.

Drugb posted:
. What is evident is that you have no evidence that this was not done, yet your hatred for Jagdeo makes you jump to this conclusion. 

You have no evidence that any were done. If others were done why didn't the PPP speak to those as indicators that Amaila was the best option.

In fact was there even a feasibility study done for Amaila prior to the PPP making a decision on this?

TK posted:

What you fail to understand is the govt has the inside information. Observers are basing opinion on what the govt proposes and makes available. The govt is the caretaker and not the owner. It's like the CEO who is the agent acting on behalf of the owners/shareholders or principals. The CEO provides all sorts of information to analysts so that the principals can know their money is being invested well. But like the typical village idiot, you see my motives has hating Jagdeo. BTW, you have multiple choices for hydros.

Fair enough the lack of information makes the public suspicious. However we should not reject a proposal because Jagdeo started it.  You and others have a history of hating Jagdeo when you should be putting the country first. 

caribny posted:

You have no evidence that any were done. If others were done why didn't the PPP speak to those as indicators that Amaila was the best option.

In fact was there even a feasibility study done for Amaila prior to the PPP making a decision on this?

No I don't, however one can surmise that this was at least discussed before make the Amaila choice. You folks due to your hatred of Jagdeo assumed that he woke up one morning and concluded that the only feasibility study needed was  on Amaila. 

Drugb posted:
.. However we should not reject a proposal because Jagdeo started it.  .. 

If Granger and company came up with a US$1 billion project with inadequate feasibility studies, and evidence that the dam would be ineffective in the dry season you would have been screaming of "Kwe kwe economics".

Just because Jagdeo concocted a White Elephant replete with opportunities to steal, as did indeed happen with the infamous Fip Motilall road fiasco, doesn't mean that it should be accepted.

No one had an issue with extending the runway at GEO as it is all agreed that the existing runway is too short. But again the PPP had to mount an expensive terminal with more gateways than busy airports like St Maarten, to drive up costs, when an expansion of the existing building and maybe 3 jet bridges, would have been enough.

Drugb posted:
caribny posted:

You have no evidence that any were done. If others were done why didn't the PPP speak to those as indicators that Amaila was the best option.

In fact was there even a feasibility study done for Amaila prior to the PPP making a decision on this?

No I don't, however one can surmise that this was at least discussed before make the Amaila choice. You folks due to your hatred of Jagdeo assumed that he woke up one morning and concluded that the only feasibility study needed was  on Amaila. 

Druggie Amaila ceased to have support when Fip Motilal was awarded a project to build a road in hostile terrain when evidence shows that he couldn't even build a driveway.

You of all people know how tough building roads in the interior are, especially when they need to be strong enough to carry heavy equipment.

So spare us your screams of "Jagdeo is Lord and Master" when he undermined any credibility of a US$1 billion project with the Fip scandal.

On what basis was Fip awarded the road building project? So why would we entrust the PPP to manage a US$1 billion project?

Drugb posted:
TK posted:

What you fail to understand is the govt has the inside information. Observers are basing opinion on what the govt proposes and makes available. The govt is the caretaker and not the owner. It's like the CEO who is the agent acting on behalf of the owners/shareholders or principals. The CEO provides all sorts of information to analysts so that the principals can know their money is being invested well. But like the typical village idiot, you see my motives has hating Jagdeo. BTW, you have multiple choices for hydros.

Fair enough the lack of information makes the public suspicious. However we should not reject a proposal because Jagdeo started it.  You and others have a history of hating Jagdeo when you should be putting the country first. 

I actually think it is time to get moving on Amaila. I am interested in the economic viability. I have always been able to think for myself.

caribny posted:

Druggie Amaila ceased to have support when Fip Motilal was awarded a project to build a road in hostile terrain when evidence shows that he couldn't even build a driveway.

You of all people know how tough building roads in the interior are, especially when they need to be strong enough to carry heavy equipment.

So spare us your screams of "Jagdeo is Lord and Master" when he undermined any credibility of a US$1 billion project with the Fip scandal.

On what basis was Fip awarded the road building project? So why would we entrust the PPP to manage a US$1 billion project?

I believe that it is not as simple as Fip Motilal. The reason for killing Amaila was so as not to have any major project accredited to the PPP.  You folks did the same for the stadium and Mariott. However you all were on board initially for Skeldon, even Ramjattan and Nagamootoo. 

Putting aside your hatred, how do we move forward?

TK posted:

I actually think it is time to get moving on Amaila. I am interested in the economic viability. I have always been able to think for myself.

What I gleaned from the report is that it is not feasible. I doubt that any other developer will come in at a lower price to make it feasible. The Chinese will build it cheaply with another Skeldon in the works. To get quality you will need to pay more which is not cost effective. 

Drugb posted:
caribny posted:

You have no evidence that any were done. If others were done why didn't the PPP speak to those as indicators that Amaila was the best option.

In fact was there even a feasibility study done for Amaila prior to the PPP making a decision on this?

No I don't, however one can surmise that this was at least discussed before make the Amaila choice. You folks due to your hatred of Jagdeo assumed that he woke up one morning and concluded that the only feasibility study needed was  on Amaila. 

I am not sure why you folks are calling Amaila a Jagdeo initiative.  Here is a snippet from the report.

In 1974-76 GOG carried out a pre-feasibility study of the hydropower potential at Amaila Falls assuming an installed capacity of 200 MW. In 1997, a brief review of this study was done by others. It concluded by suggesting a 165 MW development.

This report found TECHNICAL flaws in the proposed design plus at first glance I do not believe Norconsult did a proper financial analysis.  I have to read the report in more detail.

Everyone knows that hydro-power is the best option for Guyana's future, but it has to be done properly before it turns out to be another white elephant like Jagdeo's Skeldon plant.  Since the 1970s they been wuking at it and till today we cannot have anything significant!

Drugb posted:
.

I believe that it is not as simple as Fip Motilal. The reason for killing Amaila was so as not to have any major project accredited to the PPP. .

And it was the responsibility of a responsible opposition to kill any project that appeared to be poorly conceived. The AFC did ask for feasibility studies, which were never furnished.

The PPP kicked their own shin with their incompetent arrogance.  You should blame them for that. It is asinine for you to think that the PPP could expect approval for a large project of this magnitude when they refused to provide information, and when the initial aspects of this project were riddled with corruption.

Why was Fip Motilall granted the road building award when it is obvious that he couldn't succeed: If you cannot address this then you have no business screaming that Jagdeo is the Master of the Universe, and can do what ever he wants.  In fact he has been an abject failure in GuySICKO. Even he now admits this as much as he is able to do so.

VVP posted:
.

I am not sure why you folks are calling Amaila a Jagdeo initiative...  Since the 1970s they been wuking at it and till today we cannot have anything significant!

It is because he was pushing it, and tried to encumber Guyana with massive debt, even as the project has yet to be properly conceived.

Drugb posted:
TK posted:

I actually think it is time to get moving on Amaila. I am interested in the economic viability. I have always been able to think for myself.

What I gleaned from the report is that it is not feasible. I doubt that any other developer will come in at a lower price to make it feasible. The Chinese will build it cheaply with another Skeldon in the works. To get quality you will need to pay more which is not cost effective. 

Like you catch sense.

I took a quick peek will read later.

caribny posted:
 
 

And it was the responsibility of a responsible opposition to kill any project that appeared to be poorly conceived. The AFC did ask for feasibility studies, which were never furnished.

The PPP kicked their own shin with their incompetent arrogance.  You should blame them for that. It is asinine for you to think that the PPP could expect approval for a large project of this magnitude when they refused to provide information, and when the initial aspects of this project were riddled with corruption.

Why was Fip Motilall granted the road building award when it is obvious that he couldn't succeed: If you cannot address this then you have no business screaming that Jagdeo is the Master of the Universe, and can do what ever he wants.  In fact he has been an abject failure in GuySICKO. Even he now admits this as much as he is able to do so.

Again, you are fixated on the PPP. What will the PNC do to fulfill Guyana's hydro electric aspirations? The power is now in jackass Granger's hands, but it looks like he is content to install a few solar panels and call it a day.

Drugb posted:
..

Again, you are fixated on the PPP. .

Because you are. When you cease screaming that Jagdeo is the Lord and Master of the Universe and its domains then I will cease talking about him.

He had wanted to encumber Guyana with a poorly conceived billion dollar project when he didn't even have the integrity or competence to award the road building to some one who could actually do this.

Thank God he was blocked and so the hydro will become available when properly conceived projects are developed.

Drugb posted:
Django posted:

Like you catch sense.

I took a quick peek will read later.

What ketch sense? If the report says it is not feasible then it is not. 

And yet you scream that Jagdeo is a magician even though this might have been even worse than his Skeldon fiasco had it not been blocked.

skeldon_man posted:

With all this nonsense going on, Guyana is doomed to eternal bottle and kerosene lamps. What a progressive Guyana to look forward to.

The jackasses in power don't have a vision for the country, they are waiting on oil. 

skeldon_man posted:

With all this nonsense going on, Guyana is doomed to eternal bottle and kerosene lamps. What a progressive Guyana to look forward to.

Skelly, the PPP is the only party capable of stabilizing Guyana. The PNC has always been of a Ko Ko Beah nature and will never change. 

It will become a vicious cycle, PPP builds and save Billions, PNC destroys and sport out the money.

Remember Scottsburg ?

PNC's idea of development is the hut at Umana Yana and big sport up and wine down at the Independence celebrations which Afro political commentators are calling an Afro Fest.

As old people would say, the PNC cannot even build a toilet, how can these idiots run a country ?

They have NOTHING to show in 19 months.

Let the truth be told.

TK posted:
VVP posted:

The report itself recognize that there are periods of dry spell where Amaila cannot operate at full capacity.  At one point it said that the operation is more like a run of river type (which seems to me like there is not sufficient reservoir capability).  This means they would still have to carry backup generation to serve the load.  If Amaila cannot generate for lack of water flow they will have to have total load backup.  So if there is not sufficient backup there could be blackout.

No blackouts cannot be guaranteed, even in the USA where massive amounts are spent on reliability.  The loss of a transmission tower could result in blackout under the Amaila construct.  Gotta run.

I only experienced ONE blackout in the US in 15 years. So, would this hydro put us in a situation of one blackout every 15 years? I would take that any day.

Living in Florida and only 1 blackout! Lucky you.  My Generac saves the day at least once a year for me, but I live in farm country so no big deal.

You cannot compare Guyana with the USA.  In NY, for example, we can lose our largest nuclear plant at 1,300 MW (one unit with output about 8 times the size of Amalia!) an you will not get a blackout because there is excess "generating/operating reserves" carried at all times to pick up the loss.  There is mega investment on reliability in the USA.

In 2003 there was a major blackout due to a problem in Ohio that caused a "system collapse" that cascaded throughout the Northeast.  NY lost over $1B in productivity for that incident.

Guyana has major reliability problems.  It's not only generation problems but transmission and distribution problems.  Minor incidents cause major collapses in Guyana.  In the USA heads will roll for those thing.  I think they need to do proper modeling of the electric system in Guyana and look into their system protection.  You can have all the generation in the world, but if you have a weak  transmission and distribution system you will have major problems.

yuji22 posted:
skeldon_man posted:

With all this nonsense going on, Guyana is doomed to eternal bottle and kerosene lamps. What a progressive Guyana to look forward to.

Skelly, the PPP is the only party capable of stabilizing Guyana. The PNC has always been of a Ko Ko Beah nature and will never change. 

 

You will need both PPP and PNC to work together. One alone cannot stabilize let alone develop the country.

Fundamental issues on hydropower development in Guyana ...

1. From the numerous studies on hydropower develop -- more that two hundred -- Amaila hydropower project is the one for Guyana to develop on an independent basis.

2. Amaila hydro can generate power to the greater part of Guyana except for the Essequibo coast.

3. Any smaller plants will serve the needs of the local communities.

4. Larger generating projects are outside the scope from a financial basis for Guyana. For these larger projects to develop, it needs the lead role of major countries - e.g., Brazil - which will effectively own the operation(s).

TK posted:
yuji22 posted:
skeldon_man posted:

With all this nonsense going on, Guyana is doomed to eternal bottle and kerosene lamps. What a progressive Guyana to look forward to.

Skelly, the PPP is the only party capable of stabilizing Guyana. The PNC has always been of a Ko Ko Beah nature and will never change. 

 

You will need both PPP and PNC to work together. One alone cannot stabilize let alone develop the country.

The only time they wuk together is to F up the constitution to put power in their own hands.

TK posted:
yuji22 posted:
skeldon_man posted:

With all this nonsense going on, Guyana is doomed to eternal bottle and kerosene lamps. What a progressive Guyana to look forward to.

Skelly, the PPP is the only party capable of stabilizing Guyana. The PNC has always been of a Ko Ko Beah nature and will never change. 

 

You will need both PPP and PNC to work together. One alone cannot stabilize let alone develop the country.

We know this is not possible. What other choice do the people of Guyana have? Grin and bear and allow the PNC to drain the treasury once again? Grin and bear the imposition of VAT to support government ministers to live high on the hog? Get rich off the backs of the poor? The last time checked, Guyana is not Russia or North Korea.

Demerara_Guy posted:

Fundamental issues on hydropower development in Guyana ...

1. From the numerous studies on hydropower develop -- more that two hundred -- Amaila hydropower project is the one for Guyana to develop on an independent basis.

 

What do you mean for the highlight above?

There is a statement in the report that:

Due to GPL's lack of institutional and financial strength, and GPL having no earlier experience in hydropower development, we think it out of the question that Guyana may be able to implement its first major project as a 100% public sector undertaking.

VVP posted:
Demerara_Guy posted:

Fundamental issues on hydropower development in Guyana ...

1. From the numerous studies on hydropower develop -- more that two hundred -- Amaila hydropower project is the one for Guyana to develop on an independent basis.

What do you mean for the highlight above?

There is a statement in the report that:

Due to GPL's lack of institutional and financial strength, and GPL having no earlier experience in hydropower development, we think it out of the question that Guyana may be able to implement its first major project as a 100% public sector undertaking.

1. My statement is quite clear on hydropower development in Guyana.

2. The report's statement on GPL is simply their opinion and is irrelevant to my noted comments.

Demerara_Guy posted:
VVP posted:
Demerara_Guy posted:

Fundamental issues on hydropower development in Guyana ...

1. From the numerous studies on hydropower develop -- more that two hundred -- Amaila hydropower project is the one for Guyana to develop on an independent basis.

What do you mean for the highlight above?

There is a statement in the report that:

Due to GPL's lack of institutional and financial strength, and GPL having no earlier experience in hydropower development, we think it out of the question that Guyana may be able to implement its first major project as a 100% public sector undertaking.

1. My statement is quite clear on hydropower development in Guyana.

2. The report's statement on GPL is simply their opinion and is irrelevant to my noted comments.

   

Demerara_Guy posted:

 

1. My statement is quite clear on hydropower development in Guyana.

2. The report's statement on GPL is simply their opinion and is irrelevant to my noted comments.

Perhaps germane to the topic but then you are also saying that you lack relevance.

Important statement in the report:

We recommend that the programme for continuous water flow measurement is resumed as soon as possible and before a new main sponsor would be ready to take the front seat. 2-3 additional years of continuous flow data would provide a more reliable basis for an updated energy production simulation and thereby reduce the risks for both parties related to the PPA. Based on the same improved flow data the design flood capacities of the dam spillway and flood levels of the reservoir should be reviewed as well.

And DG says....perhaps or perhaps not 

This is really good news to me.  The site has potential for future expansion; meaning that if designed properly the same transmission lines should be able to deliver power from future expansion.

Excerpt:

2016-12-12 | Page 26 of 49
Possible Future Extension of Amaila Falls Hydropower Plant
As Guyana's power demand is growing over the years, the long term optimum installed capacity at Amaila Falls in a developed power market would probably be higher than the 165 MW initially planned. In the future, therefore, extension of the installed capacity in Amaila Falls may be considered and compared in a least cost expansion perspective together with other hydropower sites with acceptable environmental and social impacts.
We envisage a possible second stage extension as a separate plant located in parallel with the first one. A major advantage of such overall layout is that there is no need to decide now on what shall be the total future installed capacity. Secondly, upfront investment in the first stage on works that will be useful only in the future will be minimal. As preparatory works for a possible second stage, only works required for avoiding later interruption of ongoing plant operation should be considered.
If water flow measurements in Kuribrong River is resumed in the near future as part of the project preparations, and with a time perspective of at least 10 years between the commissioning dates of the two stages, several years of river flow records would be available for reliable optimisation of the final installed capacity.
Provided the same reservoir limits are maintained after a future extension of the capacity, the marginal environmental impacts would be insignificant.

Folks , I am not talking to myself   I am just trying to note some important points in the report in case anyone having interest in the topic care to read.  And this is a good archive also.

Another important point:

As part of a backbone structure in a future larger system, the transmission line may be realised as a separate project in the public sector with more favourable financing than for the BOOT arrangement of the power plant.

Drugb posted:
caribny posted:

And yet you scream that Jagdeo is a magician even though this might have been even worse than his Skeldon fiasco had it not been blocked.

I see your hatred of Jagdeo supersedes rational thinking.  

Why? Are you really suggesting that Jagdeo was a magician?  TK can show you how mediocre the economic performance was prior to Guyana being rescued by high gold prices.

Even Jagan the communist oversaw better economic growth than Jagdeo the magician.

Drugb posted:

The PNC have made their decision to kill the hydroproject since it was first revived by Jagdeo in 2008.  They now have clearly stated their intention to abandon it. 

Jagdeo awarded the road building project to Fip who did NOTHING, even though millions was spent.

But you think that its rational to allow Jagdeo another billion, even as his management of this project was replete with ineptness and corruption.

If APNU had allowed this under the circumstances it would have been clear that corruption of their leadership was involved.

Even you conceded that the project as configured wasn't appropriate and so had to be stopped.

caribny posted:

Jagdeo awarded the road building project to Fip who did NOTHING, even though millions was spent.

But you think that its rational to allow Jagdeo another billion, even as his management of this project was replete with ineptness and corruption.

If APNU had allowed this under the circumstances it would have been clear that corruption of their leadership was involved.

Even you conceded that the project as configured wasn't appropriate and so had to be stopped.

Road building was a negligible part of the overall cost.  Now PNC in charge, they have no vision for the country, jackass Granger only want to install a few solar panels and call it a day.

I do not concede that the project was infeasible. In fact we are only spoon fed what the PNC govt wants us to hear.  So far there is no evidence that hydro projects in general are uneconomical. If the Amelia falls location is an issue then the PNC needs to tell us where it should be built.

Add Reply

Likes (0)

×
×
×
×
×