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Reply to "The next President of Guyana"

Billy Ram Balgobin posted:

I never said he had massive support in those regions.  I alluded to the fact that he drew just enough votes from those areas to deny the PPP a majority.  Please check how many parliamentary seats the PNC won on its own prior to 2015 and you will see the real picture of how far they were away from winning a simple majority. Thanks to the AFC and its disgruntled PPP supporters. They gave it to the PNC on a platter.  

I suggest that you look at the data instead of repeating what others tell you.  Compare the 2011 and 2015 election results.  The PPP recovered the votes that it lost in regions 5 and 6. 

In Region 6 the PPP increased its votes by 7,200, accounting for virtually all of the increase in votes in that region.  In Region 5 the PPP increased its votes by 3,000 and the APNU/AFC by 1,400.  APNU/AFC enjoyed significant increases in voter turnout in all of the PNC strongholds so one can expect that Region 5 would be not be an exception. Contrary to what you might think Region 5 is 40% black or mixed.

Region 10, as an example showed an increase of 4,000 votes for APNU/AFC when compared to 2011.  The PPP LOST 100 votes in that region, despite the massive increase in turnout. I suspect that the PPPs base in this region will be among the Amerindian identified people (some mixed) who live upriver.

So based on this the PPP took back its Berbice Indian votes that it lost in 2011.

Those disgruntled in 2011 ran back to the PPP as they feared "blackman rule".  They felt that a bad PPP was better than a winning PNC.  They didn't trust the AFC to protect them against this.

The PPP lost in Region 4.  That is where the AFC picked up votes and denied a PPP victory.  The PPP did extremely poorly in GT and that was underscored in the LGE where the PPP lost several seats on the City council.

Now does Moses have a base in G/T?  I will remind you that G/T isn't 100% black.  In fact I think that it is 25-30% Indian. The PPP I believe only won 20% of the votes in G/T.

The AFC did pick up Indian votes but its the urban Indian (mainly middle class) and these are NOT Moses' base.  I suspect many of them also supported the AFC in 2011.

Last edited by caribny