Please understand that the Obama coalition of 2008 is not going to be that enthused next year.
Whether the GOP wins or not depends on how much damage they inflict on each other next year. The GOP only lost seats in the Senate in 2012 because of a few idiots, one engaging in witchcraft, and 2 others claiming medical nonsense about the body healing from rape. We will see if any senators will be that stupid next year.
If minority females stay home the GOP wins. It is this group, NOT young minority males, who saved Obama's hide last time. Obama lost even among white females in 2012.
As to GOP prospects for winning the presidency. They won 48% of the votes in 2012, even with the idiots braying nonsense from the Middle Ages. The Democrats have much to worry about. Will the voters who showed up in 2010 and 2014 show up in 2016.
There is no Obama to bail them out as he did in 2012, when the GOP again stumped their toes by reminiscing about restricting the black votes, as the Dixiecrats did in 1964.
Who knows what secrets about Bill Clinton corruption isn't being held to the last minute, and dumped minutes before voters pull the lever in Nov, 2016. What is evident is that the voters don't trust Hillary. They just fear the GOP nutcases more.
And as two core parts of the Obama constituency, the black and the youth vote, still have yet to recover from the 2008-10 Great Recession, without Obama at the helm don't expect the levels of enthusiasm that we saw in 2008.
The results are in the hands of the GOP, not Hillary. By the time they finish bashing each other, and a weakened Bush, Rubio, or Kasich starts to campaign in the general election, with they stl be standing, or in ER nursing their self inflicted wounds.
Despite the claims of the illiterates like bibi and baseman, Hillary is hoping in earnest that Trump is the nominee. He will scare the minority and female vote out for her, together with the white suburban vote. There aren't enough rednecks left to win elections, even in many parts of the South. The evangelicals will stay home as they don't trust Trump.
When I read nonsense like the GOP is capped at 35% of the vote, I know the person who says this is a north east liberal, so out of touch about how much of the country thinks. Hopefully Hillary's people don't fall for that.
Elections are won and who shows up, and with 50-60% voting in presidential elections, and seats allocated based on the electoral college, no one can take any vote for granted. If NY and CA show up in all glory who cares if PA, OH, FL, and VA don't.
it is 14 months down the road and baring something quite unusual....I do not see a reason to reassess. Remember what I said...`5 tp 15 percent popular vote trashing.