caribny posted:D2 posted:The PPP and APNU should take note who are the members here....young people, the most disaffected and disenchanted of Guyanese electorate. Seven thousand gives Shuman the scepter. He shall be kingmaker and kneebraker.
Not sure why you see this as salvation.
1. It is being promoted as the "Amerindian" party meaning that 90% of the population see no benefit in it for them.
2. It will play no role in Guyana, even assuming that it wins seats. The party with the greater number of seats forms the executive arm of the gov't. The only impact that a small party will make is if it forms an alliance with a larger party.
3. Amerindians have a tendency to vote for those parties which can deliver benefits, which is why GAP died a fast death.
4. Being an impoverished and heavily marginalized group one can wonder the degree to which Amerindians will manifest tribal voting as do the Indian and the black/mixed groups.
5. I doubt that Guyanese have reached the point where coastal dwellers will support a party that they see as an Amerindian party. Guyaneese tend to vote for parties that are likely to win or become a strong opposition party. As of now only the PPP and APNU have this. The disastrous performance of the AFC, even in GT, shows that they don't.
Based on the fates of the UF (betrayed by the PNC in 1968 and by the PPP around 2011) and the AFC that doesn't seem to be advantageous in the long term.
The PPP and the PNC will have to become much weaker and less dominant within the particular tribes to be reduced to the point where a small party can become a king maker. Guyana will have to have demographics like Suriname which has 4 ethnic groups with between 27% and 14% (based on their last census). But with the two groups both at around 40% (inclusive of mixed identified people whose culture and voting habits and perspectives perfectly align with black identified people) tribalism seems to remain a feature of Guyanese life for at least the next 10 years.
Wrong. They can wield power if they have the swing votes. This is what I preferred the AFC to have done. If the Shuman party could deprive either the PPP or PNC from gaining an absolute majority, then the winner forms a minority Govt. To get any bills to pass, they will need the swing vote. And that’s were Shuman can wield power!