The PPP has the numeric edge and also the enthusiasm edge. Indians are scared of this regime. The AFC defectors have long been disheartened and retreated back to where they sense they can fit in.
The PPP can also leech from the opposition pool because they had a long time cultivating a patronage pool who are currently irrevocably excluded from any political access. Then there are the Amerindians. They usually vote for the regime in office but this time they do not care for them because all the regime has done is disrespect them.
The reality is that in a fair and free election the PPP is winning the plurality. The small parties have a chance to pick up at least three seats. The APNU will be in the high 20' but not breaking the margin to win.
BTW the need for elections now is because the constitution demands it. This lame duck regime cannot get much done in their state of limbo. They need a functioning parliament. Both sides need the elections