Kari posted:
One of Hillary Clinton’s greatest weaknesses is her perceived lack of honesty and trust. Only 37 percent of Americans believe she is honest and trustworthy. That could be a devastating opportunity for an opponent to exploit. But only 27 percent of the public believes Donald Trump is honest.
This is actually more relevant than the rest of your commentary.
In 2012 FL, VA,OH, and CO all had Obama victories with 51.5% of the vote. A small swing the other way, and we have President Trump.
The person who gets their base out will win. As of now know one can say with confidence as to who will vote.
Hillary doesn't have the charisma of Obama, and there is a possibility that much of the Democratic base is bored. There is also a possibility that a Trump Democrat may emerge in places where the Reagan Democrat came.
While I believe that Hillary will win, to claim that a Trump defeat is assured is not prudent thinking. How many of us 9 months ago thought that Trump would still be around.
Of course if the GOP convention descends into a civil war then the inauguration of Hillary can occur in September.