Dave posted:VishMahabir posted:Nehru posted:PPP THE PARTY WITH A PLAN TO RETURN GUYANA TO CIVILIZATION, PROGRESS AND PROSPERITY!!
how much progress and prosperity yall made in 23 years??
you been to Guyana recently to see all the progress being made?
Dem Indos stop backtracking and stop lining up at the American embassy.
Jackass, PPP rebuilt a bankrupt country in 23 years that ayo run into the ground. Your Coalition government then took it over and within 4 fcking years, ayo took it back into the slumps. Now gawn so.
GUYANA 2 INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
May 9, 2017
Guyana’s risk of external debt distress remains moderate and debt service manageable.1The update of the debt sustainability analysis (DSA) shows the indicators of external debt distress to remain under relevant thresholds in the baseline.
The PV of external debt declines to 20 percent of GDP and debt service is 5 percent of revenue.
Nevertheless, stress tests indicate the vulnerability of public debt to adverse shocks. There are small breaches of the external debt threshold (within the borderline band) under a stress test shock to debt concessionality, suggesting a borderline moderate/low rating. An alternative approach that models the probability of debt distress shows a larger breach of threshold, which lends support to a moderate risk rating. The medium-term outlook is favorable given the expected start of oil production by 2020. Guyana has ongoing negotiations with bilateral non-Paris Club and commercial creditors who did not participate in the Heavily Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC) Initiative with a view to settling these debts (about 5 percent of GDP). A positive outcome of the negotiations could help further reduce its external indebtedness.
BACKGROUND
1. Debt relief and PetroCaribe debt write-offs have helped reduce Guyana’s debt burden over the past decade.
Total public sector debt declined from 96 percent of GDP in 2006 to about 49.6 percent in 2016. Under the Multilateral Debt Relief Initiative (MDRI), the Fund, the World Bank, and the IDB provided debt relief amounting to US$611 million in 2006–07. Paris Club bilateral creditors and some non-Paris Club creditors granted debt relief as part of the 2004 Paris Club agreement.1 Negotiations with other non-Paris Club creditors are protracted with the debt in question amounting to about 9 percent of total debt or about 5 percent of GDP.2 Meanwhile, part of the debt owed to Venezuela under the PetroCaribe agreement was repaid through Guyana’s rice exports to that country.
The rate of external debt accumulation slowed because further borrowing under the PetroCaribe agreement with Venezuela had been halted since mid-2015 following the revival of a border dispute.
2. Over the last seven years, total gross public debt has declined significantly. The debt to GDP ratio declined from 67 percent in 2009 to 49.6 percent in 2016. Over the same period, external debt declined from 46 percent of GDP to 34 percent (Table 1), and domestic debt from 21 percent of GDP to about 16 percent. Multilateral institutions—particularly the Inter-American Development Bank, the Caribbean Development Bank and the International Development Association—are the main external creditors, accounting for about 40 percent of total debt. The loan portfolio has a long maturity profile and low average interest rates.
3. Over the years, Venezuela had become an important donor but the PetroCaribe agreement with Guyana was suspended in 2015. PetroCaribe’s concessional loans financed Guyana’s oil imports. Although these loan disbursements were sizable, part of the oil proceeds were deposited in an account at the Central Bank of Guyana to be used as a ‘sinking fund’ to service external debt. In addition, Guyana repaid part of its PetroCaribe debt with rice exports and accumulated savings under the financing arrangement.3
4. Remittances are an important source of foreign exchange in Guyana, and are included in the base case. Average remittances represented 12.3 percent of GDP and 21.2 percent of exports of goods and services during 2014-16 and have been relatively steady, except a decline in 2016, which was to some extent driven by one-off factors. Therefore, remittances are sufficiently large to be considered in the base case.