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Reply to "A realignment in American politics underway"

I suggest that you all put away the bubbly until November 8th at around 9PM.  While there is a 80-90% probability of a Hillary victory that still leaves slight room for the Monster to win.

There is a quiet fear that with Obama not running many blacks don't plan to vote.  If their turn out mirrors that of 2010 and 2014 that puts states like FL, NC, VA, and PA in jeopardy.   Its accepted that Trump is going to win OH.

Ditto with some of the Bernie millennials in light of the WikiLeaks revelations.  They don't understand that this election is vital because the Supreme Court is going to see maybe 2 justices leaving, in addition to Scalia.  Sadly the Republicans know this, so many who hate Trump will vote for him, citing this as their reason.

In addition I expect the most vicious voter intimidation and suppression that we have ever seen in FL, NC, VA, OH, and maybe PA.  With the Voting Rights legislation weakened there is considerably less monitoring of irregularities and there are already phone calls warning those who owe parking tickets and child support, or have outstanding warrants, that they face arrest if they vote. Of course you know that the calls are focused in black and Latino inner city communities, and not the redneck towns.

The Democratic party has a huge problem and that is its over reliance on minority votes.  

There is a generational change within the black population. That Civil Rights generation of old ladies who automatically voted Democrat and who thought that it was a sin if they didn't, are ageing with many dying off.  The black millennials think that the Clintons were responsible for over policing and increasing wonder why they should bother to vote.

If the GOP learns a lesson from its 90% probability of defeat (not sure that Hillary will break the 300 electoral college) it is likely that a more moderate group will emerge with an "I told you so attitude".  This group will target Asians, Hispanics, and middle class (or more religious) blacks to be more open to the GOP.

I saw a map which indicated that if only white WOMEN voted what the electoral college would be. The Dems would only win the West Coast, NY/NJ and New England, as well as Wisconsin, Minnesota and Illinois.

If the GOP is able to get the 44% of the Hispanic vote (in 2020 and beyond) that it received as recently as 2004 the Dems are in trouble.  They may squeeze 20% this time, as more Latinos hate illegals than people think.

One thing that the Trump fiasco did was to expose the GOP in all of its nastiness.  The flight of the white college educated and minorities (the growth points of the electorate) may well teach the GOP that it has to change if it is to survive.

The loathing that most Democrats have for Hillary is a mere symptom of what they think of the Democrat liberal elites.  She just becomes a repository for that rage.

So Kari I don't think that there will be this great transformation along the lines that you believe.

Even Glenn Beck now concedes that the GOP went too far in its angry right wing rant. Just as endless defeats in the 80s showed the Dems that they had to move to the center if they were going to win, the GOP might learn the same lesson.

 

FM
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