Seems those who had switched to AFC came from APNU, why would they now go to PPP? They went back to APNU in 2011...
Most likely, they will stick to the coalition if you look at the numbers
Yes let's assume APNU holds 100% of its current 26 seats. This means that it has to gain 7 more seats to get to 33.
The AFC currently has 3 Indo seats, 2 Amerindian seats, and 2 Black/Mixed seats.
Let's give the Coalition all 26 APNU Seats + AFC's 2 Black/Mixed Seats + 2 AFC Amerindian Seats + 2 AFC Indo Seats. That only brings them to a maximum of 32.
The Coalition cannot afford to lose 1 of the AFC's 3 Indian seats. You tell me how that is possible without resorting to wishful thinking.
There are seventy five thousand new voters mainly urbanites. There are a 120k disinterested voters mainly black. The entire 3 Indian votes would be around 15k votes. who has the better chance of winning all other things being equal.