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FM
Former Member

There is no reason for this data not to be in the public domain except for the Bureau of Statistics playing a political game.

 

The Opposition is negligent here. They should have already taken them to court. It is not like producing the outburst is any difficult task. The crosstab is a select query  with the pivot command and there! It is not even 6 lines of code at most!

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That's the point I made indirectly last night in another thread. The PPP government has not released final 2012 Census results that show ethnic composition of the population. They released preliminary results, avoiding that important category. Nevertheless, those preliminary results hint at a reduction of the Indo-Guyanese population in terms of geographical distribution.

Definitely, the political opposition must be criticized for not pursuing this matter aggressively.

FM
Originally Posted by Nehru:

HEHEHE  Election coming, then yuh can ask for more.

Don't you feel the sense of vertigo of falling into the PPP corruption trap every time you are forced to accept a lie or condone a depraved practice? It is the unfortunate dilemma of the Indian these days. They have to sublimate all passion for the truth or the shame on the inevitability that others know they lie when they tie bundle with the PPP these days.

FM
Originally Posted by Gilbakka:

That's the point I made indirectly last night in another thread. The PPP government has not released final 2012 Census results that show ethnic composition of the population. They released preliminary results, avoiding that important category. Nevertheless, those preliminary results hint at a reduction of the Indo-Guyanese population in terms of geographical distribution.

Definitely, the political opposition must be criticized for not pursuing this matter aggressively.

it would also help to develop statistical models to verify GECOM's data if the information is released

FM
Originally Posted by Stormborn:
Originally Posted by Gilbakka:

That's the point I made indirectly last night in another thread. The PPP government has not released final 2012 Census results that show ethnic composition of the population. They released preliminary results, avoiding that important category. Nevertheless, those preliminary results hint at a reduction of the Indo-Guyanese population in terms of geographical distribution.

Definitely, the political opposition must be criticized for not pursuing this matter aggressively.

it would also help to develop statistical models to verify GECOM's data if the information is released

Agree.

I presume the PPP does not want to alarm Indos and energize the opposition, hence its deafening silence.

FM

The math says the PPP will coral 85% of the votes that make up 42% of the actual voting population. So in a population of 100 units give em 85% of 42%. (Maybe 5% of Indians will stay home dissatisfied and want no part of the APNU or AFC, another 10% will vote AFC). So they get 37.5 units.

 

By this calculation give AFC 2.1 units. Give APNU 0.

 

Now that takes care of 42% of the actually-voted Indian voters.

 

Give APNU 90% of the Afro 30% of the actual voting population or units in my hypothetical situation, AFC 8% and the PPP 2%.

 

So APNU gets 27 units; AFC 2.4 and PPP 0.6

 

So between the 42% Indians and 30% Africans (72% 0f the population), we have this hypothetical breakdown.

 

PPP     41.1 units

APNU   27 units

AFC     4.5 units

That accounts  72.6 units of the actual voting by the two major races. That leaves a fight for 27.3 units. We may have 9 units of Amerindians and that leaves 18.3 units for the mixed race.

 

Let's look at AFC's chances with a disenchantment for both major and veteran parties. IF they can get 5 Amerindian units and 10 mixed units they stand to get 19.5 units. Their current unit value I think is 10. That's almost a 100% increase from the last election. Doable?

 

IF this holds and the PPP adds 4 of the remaining units and APNU 4 the neither can get to the promised land of 50 PPP would end up with 45%, APNU with 31% and AFC with 20%. You can divide up the remaining 4% and it would not alter the numbers in a significant way.

 

With this Ramotar stays as President and AFC has a bigger role in Parliament.

Kari
Originally Posted by Kari:

The math says the PPP will coral 85% of the votes that make up 42% of the actual voting population. So in a population of 100 units give em 85% of 42%. (Maybe 5% of Indians will stay home dissatisfied and want no part of the APNU or AFC, another 10% will vote AFC). So they get 37.5 units.

 

By this calculation give AFC 2.1 units. Give APNU 0.

 

Now that takes care of 42% of the actually-voted Indian voters.

 

Give APNU 90% of the Afro 30% of the actual voting population or units in my hypothetical situation, AFC 8% and the PPP 2%.

 

So APNU gets 27 units; AFC 2.4 and PPP 0.6

 

So between the 42% Indians and 30% Africans (72% 0f the population), we have this hypothetical breakdown.

 

PPP     41.1 units

APNU   27 units

AFC     4.5 units

That accounts  72.6 units of the actual voting by the two major races. That leaves a fight for 27.3 units. We may have 9 units of Amerindians and that leaves 18.3 units for the mixed race.

 

Let's look at AFC's chances with a disenchantment for both major and veteran parties. IF they can get 5 Amerindian units and 10 mixed units they stand to get 19.5 units. Their current unit value I think is 10. That's almost a 100% increase from the last election. Doable?

 

IF this holds and the PPP adds 4 of the remaining units and APNU 4 the neither can get to the promised land of 50 PPP would end up with 45%, APNU with 31% and AFC with 20%. You can divide up the remaining 4% and it would not alter the numbers in a significant way.

 

With this Ramotar stays as President and AFC has a bigger role in Parliament.

 

Doh is good wuk Kari bai. Dem is some plausible assumpshons and numba. Dem PPP bais going to get moh headache. AFC coming out de winner yasuh. 

FM
Originally Posted by Kari:

The math says the PPP will coral 85% of the votes that make up 42% of the actual voting population. So in a population of 100 units give em 85% of 42%. (Maybe 5% of Indians will stay home dissatisfied and want no part of the APNU or AFC, another 10% will vote AFC). So they get 37.5 units.

 

By this calculation give AFC 2.1 units. Give APNU 0.

 

Now that takes care of 42% of the actually-voted Indian voters.

 

Give APNU 90% of the Afro 30% of the actual voting population or units in my hypothetical situation, AFC 8% and the PPP 2%.

 

So APNU gets 27 units; AFC 2.4 and PPP 0.6

 

So between the 42% Indians and 30% Africans (72% 0f the population), we have this hypothetical breakdown.

 

PPP     41.1 units

APNU   27 units

AFC     4.5 units

That accounts  72.6 units of the actual voting by the two major races. That leaves a fight for 27.3 units. We may have 9 units of Amerindians and that leaves 18.3 units for the mixed race.

 

Let's look at AFC's chances with a disenchantment for both major and veteran parties. IF they can get 5 Amerindian units and 10 mixed units they stand to get 19.5 units. Their current unit value I think is 10. That's almost a 100% increase from the last election. Doable?

 

IF this holds and the PPP adds 4 of the remaining units and APNU 4 the neither can get to the promised land of 50 PPP would end up with 45%, APNU with 31% and AFC with 20%. You can divide up the remaining 4% and it would not alter the numbers in a significant way.

 

With this Ramotar stays as President and AFC has a bigger role in Parliament.

Kari the problem with the "mixed race" is it encompasses a very broad bunch of folks.  Trotmant says he is mixed, maybe because he wants to appear less ethnically threatening in order to be seen as being "raceless".  The more mixed looking Granger identifies as African, no doubt because he fears his core grass roots black base will reject him if they see him as a "red man".

 

I say all of this to say that mixed people in Guyana include the old mulatto, population, black people who refuse to self identify as African, people of recent African and non African ancestry, those who combine two or more non African ancestries, and those who are triracial, inclusive of African.

 

The census says that 30% of the population self identify as African/Black/Negro.  The fact that the PNC in every election but one, attracts 40% of the votes suggests that 60-70% of the mixed population move within an AfroGuyanese cultural environment and see life no different from those who self identify as African/Black/Negro. 

 

The PNC attracts very few Indian or Amerindian votes.  So this means that over 30% of their votes come from mixed voters, suggesting that they win almost as many of these votes as they do people who self identify as African/Black/Negro.  So the PNC starts at 40% and arent likely to reach beyond that at this late stage.

 

The PNC's problem is that it is stuck at 40% and this depends on voter turn out.  What they will need to do is to get more young blacks, who stopped voting (if they ever did) out and this will offset the significant disaffected Indian vote which will stay home.

 

The true competition exists among disaffected Indians, Amerindians, mixed people who operate outside of the cultural milieu of Afro Guyanese, and the young people of all races.  These folks arent particularly loyal to or, impressed with any party, and so can be impressed to vote if they are given a reason to vote.   The AFC (either on its own or in alliance with APNU) might have the best appeal among these groups.

FM
Last edited by Former Member
Originally Posted by Kari:

The math says the PPP will coral 85% of the votes that make up 42% of the actual voting population. So in a population of 100 units give em 85% of 42%. (Maybe 5% of Indians will stay home dissatisfied and want no part of the APNU or AFC, another 10% will vote AFC). So they get 37.5 units.

 

By this calculation give AFC 2.1 units. Give APNU 0.

 

Now that takes care of 42% of the actually-voted Indian voters.

 

Give APNU 90% of the Afro 30% of the actual voting population or units in my hypothetical situation, AFC 8% and the PPP 2%.

 

So APNU gets 27 units; AFC 2.4 and PPP 0.6

 

So between the 42% Indians and 30% Africans (72% 0f the population), we have this hypothetical breakdown.

 

PPP     41.1 units

APNU   27 units

AFC     4.5 units

That accounts  72.6 units of the actual voting by the two major races. That leaves a fight for 27.3 units. We may have 9 units of Amerindians and that leaves 18.3 units for the mixed race.

 

Let's look at AFC's chances with a disenchantment for both major and veteran parties. IF they can get 5 Amerindian units and 10 mixed units they stand to get 19.5 units. Their current unit value I think is 10. That's almost a 100% increase from the last election. Doable?

 

IF this holds and the PPP adds 4 of the remaining units and APNU 4 the neither can get to the promised land of 50 PPP would end up with 45%, APNU with 31% and AFC with 20%. You can divide up the remaining 4% and it would not alter the numbers in a significant way.

 

With this Ramotar stays as President and AFC has a bigger role in Parliament.

You are way off with this estimation. Also, you took too many shuffle steps to get to this point. The emphasis should be focused on the PPP 8% advantage and what they need to do to keep it.

 

It is clear they are not going to make inroads in any of the traditional african areas ( self identified or mixed) They stand to lose from among the new voters (and there are 70 K of these) given the heightened awareness that they are pillaging the state, are arrogant about it and do not seem to present a moral face in anything. Young people are not receptive to the PNC boogieman and are insulted with the crass racism implied ie black people cannot be any better than a corrupt few.

 

Attrition to that 8 percent is already in the number. They have lost 16k people in the traditional areas. Even with their padding the polls with chinese immigrants ( the reason they are hiding the stats) that number cannot be replaced completely.

 

The AFC will continue to poach from their traditional base especially in region 3 this time. The disaffection here for the PPP by many is irreversible. The AFC can pick up 5 points here. The AFC is retaining region 8 and will pick up numbers in 9. Amerindians are now moving out of their shell and not being anybody monkey in exchange for a chain saw.

 

Unlike, as a few believe, the AFC is not picking up many from the African areas. It is not because they are not liked but like PPP traditional supporters. these remain locked in to the APN, linden included.

 

Anyway you look at it the PPP is losing votes! If they lose more than 8% the APNU is in power otherwise, they are being returned to office 2 to three seats short!

FM
Originally Posted by Kari:

I've just seen the light - Stormy and Cainsta are batty-and-poke.

 

How de rass Cain mek dat leap from one angle to the Stormy 8% angle to bring that idiot Rev into this? The answer boys and girls - he must have to rub up Stormy battie. Hah!

See what ah sayin? Gotta be a idiot Rev's student, where de rass yu come up with a 8% hangle deh banna?

cain

Thank you KARI.

 

I see it a bit different  and this way.

 

WHAT do you think.

 

Indos

The math says the PPP will coral 75% of the votes that make up 39% of the actual voting population. That means - 75% of 39%. (Maybe 5% of Indians will stay home dissatisfied and want no part of the APNU or AFC, another 20% will vote AFC).

 

By this calculation give PPP – 29.2, AFC 7.8 units. Give APNU 0. Stay at home – 2.0 units.

 

Afros

 

Give APNU 80% of the Afro 30% of the actual voting population or units in my hypothetical situation, AFC 10% and the PPP 2%.  8 % stayed at home.  In 2011 more afros stayed at home than indos.

 

So APNU gets 24 units; AFC 3 units and PPP 0.6 units and 2.4 units stayed at home or vote.

 

So between the 69% Indos and afro.

 

PPP     29.8 units

APNU   24 units

AFC     10.8 units

 

Stay at home – 4.4 units 

 

 

That accounts  69 units of the actual voting by the two major races. That leaves a fight for 31 units. We may have 10 units of Amerindians and that leaves 21 units for the mixed race and others.

 

With the Hinterland folks – AFC will get 2 units, PPP 3 units and APNU 3 units.  2 units will be unaccounted, can find them, away from home or stay at home.

 

That make the tally

 

 PPP     32.8 units

APNU   27 units

AFC     12.8 units

 

Stay at home, not at home, out of the district – 6.4 units 

 

Then the mixed and other – 21 units.

 

This mixed race is up in the air, they do not like the PPP but do not trust the APNU.  AFC will do well here.

 

I see the AFC getting 7 units, APNU 6 units, PPP 4 units and stay at home – 4 units.

 

 

FINAL TALLY

 

 

PPP     36.8 units

APNU   33 units

AFC     19.8 units

 

Stay at home – 10.4 units 

 

 

FM
Originally Posted by cain:
Originally Posted by Kari:

I've just seen the light - Stormy and Cainsta are batty-and-poke.

 

How de rass Cain mek dat leap from one angle to the Stormy 8% angle to bring that idiot Rev into this? The answer boys and girls - he must have to rub up Stormy battie. Hah!

See what ah sayin? Gotta be a idiot Rev's student, where de rass yu come up with a 8% hangle deh banna?

Nah worry wah de man say about Rev.

Worry about: he must have to rub up Stormy battie. Hah!

True dat bai Cain?  

FM
Originally Posted by Stormborn:
Originally Posted by Gilbakka:

That's the point I made indirectly last night in another thread. The PPP government has not released final 2012 Census results that show ethnic composition of the population. They released preliminary results, avoiding that important category. Nevertheless, those preliminary results hint at a reduction of the Indo-Guyanese population in terms of geographical distribution.

Definitely, the political opposition must be criticized for not pursuing this matter aggressively.

it would also help to develop statistical models to verify GECOM's data if the information is released

 

And that is really the problem. We can't have a proper statistical analysis to check the veracity of the election. Those intended on shenanigans will do their best to keep the people in the dark.

FM

Kari gave us the basic insights. It will be interesting to rework various simulations depending on voter turnout of each ethnic group. What if the Indians stay home in larger percentage than other groups? I think Africans and Mixed folks are very motivated to vote, but I could be wrong. Even with a best case of 90% Indian turnout can the PPP win a majority? I think the 51% ship has sailed. On the other hand, the elements in the PNC from Linden who sabotaged the Congress to embarrass Granger have certainly helped the PPP's cause. 

FM
Originally Posted by TK:

Kari gave us the basic insights. It will be interesting to rework various simulations depending on voter turnout of each ethnic group. What if the Indians stay home in larger percentage than other groups? I think Africans and Mixed folks are very motivated to vote, but I could be wrong. Even with a best case of 90% Indian turnout can the PPP win a majority? I think the 51% ship has sailed. On the other hand, the elements in the PNC from Linden who sabotaged the Congress to embarrass Granger have certainly helped the PPP's cause. 

TK, i am curious as to your take on the motivation(s) of the Linden crew

 

some in the APNU leadership have (self servingly?) claimed that they are PPP 5th columnists

 

i think that is absurd

FM
Last edited by Former Member
Originally Posted by redux:
Originally Posted by TK:

Kari gave us the basic insights. It will be interesting to rework various simulations depending on voter turnout of each ethnic group. What if the Indians stay home in larger percentage than other groups? I think Africans and Mixed folks are very motivated to vote, but I could be wrong. Even with a best case of 90% Indian turnout can the PPP win a majority? I think the 51% ship has sailed. On the other hand, the elements in the PNC from Linden who sabotaged the Congress to embarrass Granger have certainly helped the PPP's cause. 

TK, i am curious as to your take on the motivation(s) of the Linden crew

 

some in the APNU leadership have claimed that they are PPP 5th columnists

 

i think that is absurd

Oh this should be interesting let me get a chair....

FM
Originally Posted by redux:
Originally Posted by TK:

Kari gave us the basic insights. It will be interesting to rework various simulations depending on voter turnout of each ethnic group. What if the Indians stay home in larger percentage than other groups? I think Africans and Mixed folks are very motivated to vote, but I could be wrong. Even with a best case of 90% Indian turnout can the PPP win a majority? I think the 51% ship has sailed. On the other hand, the elements in the PNC from Linden who sabotaged the Congress to embarrass Granger have certainly helped the PPP's cause. 

TK, i am curious as to your take on the motivation(s) of the Linden crew

 

some in the APNU leadership have claimed that they are PPP 5th columnists

 

i think that is absurd

They are not directly PPP 5th columnists.

FM
Originally Posted by TK:
Originally Posted by redux:
Originally Posted by TK:

Kari gave us the basic insights. It will be interesting to rework various simulations depending on voter turnout of each ethnic group. What if the Indians stay home in larger percentage than other groups? I think Africans and Mixed folks are very motivated to vote, but I could be wrong. Even with a best case of 90% Indian turnout can the PPP win a majority? I think the 51% ship has sailed. On the other hand, the elements in the PNC from Linden who sabotaged the Congress to embarrass Granger have certainly helped the PPP's cause. 

TK, i am curious as to your take on the motivation(s) of the Linden crew

 

some in the APNU leadership have (self-sevingly?) claimed that they are PPP 5th columnists

 

i think that is absurd

They are not directly PPP 5th columnists.

not to put u on a spot [u are, after all, a public guy and i am a cipher in cyberspace], but wouldn't u agree that there is plenty of blame to go around . . . beginning with mishandling at the very top of the APNU leadership

FM
Last edited by Former Member
Originally Posted by HM_Redux:
Originally Posted by Kapadilla:
Originally Posted by HM_Redux:

Budday like you want Clarissa come and deliver she sermon again?

 

Jalil weh dat tape deh bai???

 

Ehehehehehe...wey we bai jalil dey. Tell de man foh post two pictcha yasuh. Ehehehehehe...

The Honorable Jalil will be here soon......

 

Ehehehehehe...

FM
Originally Posted by HM_Redux:

Budday like you want Clarissa come and deliver she sermon again?

 

Jalil weh dat tape deh bai???

 

Rab,

 

I don't have to moonlight as an adjunct in NYC to make a living you know. Furthermore, I never had to depend on a political party to for a job or have I married into money like Clarissa and the lot. I have freedom to call it as I see it.

FM

the people of Linden and environs will turn out in their numbers for APNU/AFC because they desperately want to remove the boot of the PPP from their necks . . . not for love of David Granger

 

any analysis that calculates differently is woefully out of touch with realities on the ground

FM
Last edited by Former Member
Originally Posted by redux:

the people of Linden and environs will turn out in their numbers for APNU/AFC because they desperately want to remove the boot of the PPP from their necks . . . not for love of David Granger

 

any analysis that calculates differently is woefully out of touch with realities on the ground

 

I have no reason to doubt that. They will vote strategically as the two main groups have always done. After all there is a great prize of a constitution that was engineered to give a dictator lots of luxuries. Granger will not be around for a long time. But that constitution will.

FM
Originally Posted by TK:
Originally Posted by redux:

the people of Linden and environs will turn out in their numbers for APNU/AFC because they desperately want to remove the boot of the PPP from their necks . . . not for love of David Granger

 

any analysis that calculates differently is woefully out of touch with realities on the ground

I have no reason to doubt that. They will vote strategically as the two main groups have always done. After all there is a great prize of a constitution that was engineered to give a dictator lots of luxuries. Granger will not be around for a long time. But that constitution will.

which is why major reform/rewrite of the dictatorship constitution MUST be a key element of the opposition campaign

 

AFC has spoken to this somewhat . . . what is APNU's position?

FM
Originally Posted by redux:
Originally Posted by TK:
Originally Posted by redux:

the people of Linden and environs will turn out in their numbers for APNU/AFC because they desperately want to remove the boot of the PPP from their necks . . . not for love of David Granger

 

any analysis that calculates differently is woefully out of touch with realities on the ground

I have no reason to doubt that. They will vote strategically as the two main groups have always done. After all there is a great prize of a constitution that was engineered to give a dictator lots of luxuries. Granger will not be around for a long time. But that constitution will.

which is why major reform/rewrite of the dictatorship constitution MUST be a key element of the opposition campaign

 

AFC has spoken to this somewhat . . . what is APNU's position?

 

That's never going to happen now. The PPP will rule as they have with even 45% of the votes. When you have a President possibly consulting a soothsayer to set an election date without even bearing in mind that teenagers are under immense stress, you know that is not a party of enlightenment. AFC merely said it as an afterthought. They are not serious about rewriting the constitution. Otherwise they would have taken a completely different political track from 2011.

FM
Originally Posted by TK:
Originally Posted by redux:
Originally Posted by TK:
Originally Posted by redux:

the people of Linden and environs will turn out in their numbers for APNU/AFC because they desperately want to remove the boot of the PPP from their necks . . . not for love of David Granger

 

any analysis that calculates differently is woefully out of touch with realities on the ground

I have no reason to doubt that. They will vote strategically as the two main groups have always done. After all there is a great prize of a constitution that was engineered to give a dictator lots of luxuries. Granger will not be around for a long time. But that constitution will.

which is why major reform/rewrite of the dictatorship constitution MUST be a key element of the opposition campaign

 

AFC has spoken to this somewhat . . . what is APNU's position?

 That's never going to happen now. The PPP will rule as they have with even 45% of the votes. When you have a President possibly consulting a soothsayer to set an election date without even bearing in mind that teenagers are under immense stress, you know that is not a party of enlightenment. AFC merely said it as an afterthought. They are not serious about rewriting the constitution. Otherwise they would have taken a completely different political track from 2011.

i have called, in this space, for the opposition to make constitutional reform the unifying plank of their campaign(s) . . . a promise to Guyana of a new Republic

 

the idea of a constitutional convention to erase the malevolent vestiges of Burnham's (and now the PPP's) authoritarian vision is the one thing that can inspire and motivate young peope of all races to embrace a liberated, far better future than the lives their parents and grandparents lived

 

removal of the PPP is the sine qua non if we are to get from here to there

 

you decline to comment on APNU's position, preferring to chastise the AFC for (insincere?) murmurings as an "afterthought"

 

those of us in a position to do so . . . why are we not holding the feet of the Opposition political class to the fire?

FM
Last edited by Former Member
Originally Posted by skeldon_man:
Originally Posted by cain:
Originally Posted by Kari:

I've just seen the light - Stormy and Cainsta are batty-and-poke.

 

How de rass Cain mek dat leap from one angle to the Stormy 8% angle to bring that idiot Rev into this? The answer boys and girls - he must have to rub up Stormy battie. Hah!

See what ah sayin? Gotta be a idiot Rev's student, where de rass yu come up with a 8% hangle deh banna?

Nah worry wah de man say about Rev.

Worry about: he must have to rub up Stormy battie. Hah!

True dat bai Cain?  

Skelly, you see how you stay.

Everyone having a logical conversation, with bit of frustration from Kari.

You come hea wid you nasty. All PPP people  stay like dat ?

I can see why its difficult having a good conversation with those in the government, unless dem  in a rum-shop, den all hell break loose wid name calling and sometimes a  fight.  

Tola
Originally Posted by KishanB:

 

This mixed race is up in the air, they do not like the PPP but do not trust the APNU.

First of all folks need to understand something.  The VOTING age population is NOT the same as the total population, especially in a country like Guyana where about 30% are TOO YOUNG TO VOTE. 

 

The SELF IDENTIFIED mixed population has grown tremendously since 1991 when they accounted for 12% pf the total population.  This increased to 16% in 2002 and now 19% in 2012.  So why is this population increasing?  Cannot be that mixed people are migrating less than Africans. 

 

So is it because some who self identified as African when the PNC was in power (1991) now claimed to be mixed with "black out of style", and "black man time done". May explain part of it. 

 

I suspect that Trotman, who self identifies as "mixed" is one of these, as I doubt during the Burnham era he didn't self identify as black.  Trotman operates I am sure within the context of upper middle class Afro Guyanese.

 

But what is evident is that there are also more people with recent multi racial ancestry.  Note that many of those were born after 1991, so only the oldest of this cohort is old enough to vote.  People born between 1991 and 1996.

 

So the mixed population is going to be UNDER represented among the voting age population.  We don't know how much, because we don't know how many of them used to self identify as "African", but have now switched to being mixed.

 

There is another issue.  The voting age population of Africans in 2001 was 32% of the vote.  It has long been known that Africans are more likely to stay home than Indians.  The PPP gets maybe 5-10% of the black vote, which suggests that the PNC picks up 85-90%. Yet with all of this the PNC gets 40%, except in 2006 when the black stay home vote was especially high and some opted to vote AFC as well.

 

It becomes obvious that there is NOT a clear cut differentiation between the mixed and the black population.  Sit an Afro Guyanese family down and one will see people with radically different appearance operating as a family sharing similar perspectives, including how they vote.  Some will claim to be black, and others to be mixed, but when election comes the PNC gets their vote.

 

Otherwise explain to be why the PNC gets 40% of the vote, when it should otherwise get 25-30% when we adjust for lower black turn out to the polls and the fact that as many as 15% support other parties. It is obvious to me that there isn't much difference in how self identified mixed and self identified blacks vote.

 

One need look at Region 7 as proof.  Divided between an Amerindian and self identified mixed population, with a large African minority, yet the PNC wins this district almost all the time.  I can assume that this is the Bartica vote and not that of the more distant parts of the region which are mainly populated by Amerindians.  Given the historic adverse relationships between the mainly black pork knockers and GDF/GPF and the Amerindian populations, I doubt that they think kindly of the PNC.

 

 

So I suggest that one uses a 40% as a PNC starting point and combine the African and the mixed populations.  And adjust for the fact that there is a substantial disaffected and alienated urban African voting age person who refuses to register, and also that the mixed population is more people who are to young to vote than do the African and Indian populations.

 

Bottom line is that the PNC wins almost as much of the self identified mixed vote as they do the self identified African/black vote. 

 

The Afro Guyanese identity is one that is constructed out of the experience of people of African descent.  It is not an identity based on a connection to an ancestral land.  For this reason an Afro Guyanese identity is a FLUID identity and as such is accepting of any one who wishes to operate within its cultural context, regardless as to whether they call themselves black or mixed.

 

If a dougla self identifies as "black", and more than a few do, who will be embraced as black.  A dougla does NOT have the same ability to be accepted as an Indian by Indo Guyanese.  Not to say that he will be rejected as people are more open than they used to be, but he remains PART Indian, and that black aspect will always be noticed.

FM
Last edited by Former Member
Originally Posted by redux:
Originally Posted by TK:

Kari gave us the basic insights. It will be interesting to rework various simulations depending on voter turnout of each ethnic group. What if the Indians stay home in larger percentage than other groups? I think Africans and Mixed folks are very motivated to vote, but I could be wrong. Even with a best case of 90% Indian turnout can the PPP win a majority? I think the 51% ship has sailed. On the other hand, the elements in the PNC from Linden who sabotaged the Congress to embarrass Granger have certainly helped the PPP's cause. 

TK, i am curious as to your take on the motivation(s) of the Linden crew

 

some in the APNU leadership have (self servingly?) claimed that they are PPP 5th columnists

 

i think that is absurd

There are two schisms within the PNC.

 

1.  Age and the fact that the elder statesmen within the PNC disrespect the younger ones, and fear their energy and despise their ideas.

 

2.  Class.  There is a schism between the upper middle class black and mixed and the more grass roots blacks.  Granger represents the former and Kissoon/Solomon the latter.  Linden no longer has that upper middle class that G/town retains so there are few barriers to grass roots folks dominating the political sphere than will be the case in the more institutional entrenched G/town.  I suspect that Kissoon/Solomon have more support amongst those in South G/town than folks admit.

 

Rest assured of one thing.  These folks detest the PPP even more than Granger and his crew do.  I might be wrong but I think that these folks are coming from the right place in trying to help people who are being abused because of their race and the town where they live.  I don't think that they are the type of Judas characters that Corbin definitely was.

 

 

Not that long ago Solomon faced down PPP bullets and in fact it was his behavior which embarrassed the G/town folks (BOTH the AFC and APNU to race down to Linden).  The initial disinterest of Granger in that situation was a clear sign that a Linden vs. Granger rift was going to come.  South G/town folks aren't mobilized, or we would see the same thing.  Sadly many of them will merely not vote instead, so alienated are they that they have anything to gain from participating in governance.

 

Given that most blacks left in Guyana are grass roots people (the others left in the Burnham era with yet more fleeing PPP racism) Nagamootoo has to learn how to over come his fear of speaking in front of these people, if he wishes to be the presidential candidate should APNU and the AFC contest the election as an alliance.

FM
Last edited by Former Member

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