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FM
Former Member

This slipped my mind as well even though Caribj and I have been saying this for ages in almost every other post here since the beginning of the Election campaign.

 

The internal polls being leaked which point to a statistical dead heat between the Coalition and the PPP appear to be affected by an undercount of the Indian voters in the sample which means that PPP support is being significantly underestimated.

 

There is almost no way that the PPP is performing slightly lower than its 2011 Election percentage of the vote which is what one recent poll suggests. The same poll also shows the statistical tie. I cannot believe the PPP is doing so badly and the Coalition is also doing so badly so another unaccounted for factor must be skewing the results of this poll. And that factor is that the sample of Indian voters is too small and PPP support is being undercounted. Also, there appears to be in one instance an undecided lot of 5 parliamentary seats.

 

Therefore, for all the foregoing reasons this Election is not a tie and the PPP should be in the lead (though I have not seen a poll showing this lead just statistical ties) thought not quite over the 50% mark. That's guessing territory.

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Originally Posted by Shaitaan:
Originally Posted by caribny:

The PNC always under polls in pre election polls.

 

Good point! APNU has some smart people so I hope they planned somewhat for a loss of the AFC's 3 Indian seats; and have a Plan B to shore up the Black/Mixed vote and have it over-perform to make up for "Moses Magic"

As far as I know People Vote for the BETTER Party. But Al YUh keep talking about Race.  If People feel the PPP can do a better Job, they simply will Vote PPP, if they think the PNC can do a better Job, they will Vote PNC.  Now, both sides  have their core members who will Vote for them regardlesss. It is no different from the Democrat VS Republican.

Nehru
Originally Posted by Rev:
Originally Posted by caribny:

The PNC always under polls in pre election polls.

 

*That's right! Pre-election polls always have the PNC as a 30% party; the election results reveal them to be a 40% party.hahaha

 

Rev

And now polls show the coalition at 45%, so if that is an under poll then they are home free. Remember that APNU AFC is ONE entity, so don't come with your nonsense about the AFC.

FM
Originally Posted by Shaitaan:
Therefore, for all the foregoing reasons this Election is not a tie and the PPP should be in the lead (though I have not seen a poll showing this lead just statistical ties) thought not quite over the 50% mark. That's guessing territory.

Is how you get away with this kind of rubbish unnoticed ? If this was an identity parade you would pick out each person as a possible suspect.

Mr.T
Originally Posted by Shaitaan:
Originally Posted by caribny:

The PNC always under polls in pre election polls.

 

Good point! APNU has some smart people so I hope they planned somewhat for a loss of the AFC's 3 Indian seats; and have a Plan B to shore up the Black/Mixed vote and have it over-perform to make up for "Moses Magic"

when you see the alliance campaigning and you see all those collie in the picture what you think they are doing there

FM
Originally Posted by Shaitaan:
Originally Posted by caribny:
And now polls show the coalition at 45%, so if that is an under poll then they are home free.

 

Please explain. I doan understand. How is this good for the Coalition absent some extraordinary APNU driven Black/Mixed turnout of people who doan usually vote?


If the PNC polls 30% and finally gets 40%, and at least 80% of that 45% is the PNC component, then the traditional under polling will suggest that APNU AFC will get more than 45%.

 

The under polling will be significant because it does appear as if there is more youthful excitement within the APNU AFC camp than tradionally.  Most likely that element isnt being polled.

 

I will not speak to the AFC Indian component as I lack access to that component.  Indeed I will argue that not even Moses knows what votes he will bring in until the last ballot is counted.

FM

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