Wrap: A dodgy GDP claim
We have grave doubts about the claim by Donald Ramotar in today’s Chronicle that the economy grew by 4.5% in 2014. Here are four reasons…
1) Banks DIH’s revenues flatlined last year. Here are the figures for its revenue growth from 2008-2014, compared to the country’s GDP increase.
It is hard to see how Banks DIH revenues could stagnate in what Ramotar is claiming is a booming economy.
2) Gold in the past few years has made up 50% of annual exports while mining constitutes 10.6% of GDP. In 2014, total declarations of gold were down by 22.61% compared to last year and total revenue fell by 23.45%.
3) Sugar production was up last year to 216,000 MT from 186,000 MT , but that only measured tonnes, not the sales. Guysuco back in 2012 was producing sugar when it was selling at US$700 per tonne, now it’s around US$350.
4) Caribbean Container Inc sells boxes to manufacturers so is a good measure of how the sector is faring. Its half year 2014 accounts reflected an “unprecedented decline in sales of marine packaging” and “order trends” for existing customers in almost all others sectors were down.
It does not add up.