AFC could be wiped out if coalition loses – Ramkarran

APNU Leader
David Granger

By Janelle Persaud

Former Speaker of the National Assembly and Political Commentator Ralph Ramkarran says the Alliance For Change (AFC) is taking a major gamble with its existence by joining forces with A Partnership for National Unity (APNU) to contest the May 11 Regional and General Elections.

In an interview with Guyana Times two days after the agreement to coalesce was signed, Ramkarran opined that the party, once considered a “third force”, stands the risk of being “wiped out” if the outcome of the elections is unfavourable.

He reasoned that APNU will maintain its support base and has nothing to lose as a consequence of the coalition but noted that the AFC could lose everything.

“One of the big problems would be, if the Indians would say well this is the PNC back in power and while we were prepared in 2011 to give the AFC our vote, with the expectation that the PPP/C [People’s Progressive Party/Civic] will win …we are not prepared to give you our vote if it means the PPP/C would lose the election,” Ramkarran reasoned.

AFC Vice Chairman
Moses Nagamootoo

Ramkarran is not the only person who has expressed fears for the AFC and also the chances of the alliance ousting the PPP/C.

APNU Member Dr David Hinds has been quoted in a commentary saying that while he welcomes the coalition since it has created history, he also remains skeptical of its strategy to oust the governing PPP/C from power noting that while some may seen the coalition as a breakthrough, it is a gamble.

Skeptical

Former Government Minister and Columnist Dr Henry Jeffrey weighing in on the subject also related that he remains skeptical that the approach taken by the two parties was the best one yet.

“I think what they want to do is to get rid of the PPP/C. I am not certain that that is the best option for doing so but I am not convinced that it’s the best option,” said Jeffrey.

According to Jeffrey, now that the AFC has coalesced with the APNU, whose major partner is the People’s National Congress Reform (PNCR), voters who would have seen AFC as a middle-ground party away from the two larger political organisations would stay away from the polls.

Political commentator Ralph Ramkarran

“They have removed the possibility of a middle-ground that people run to. If there is no middle-ground, people have an option they can stay home or they go back and vote for whom they were voting and that is a great possibility that exists at the moment because the AFC joining with the PNC does not offer that middle-ground any longer,” he said.

Norton’s doubtful

PNCR member Aubrey Norton said he does not support the move by the AFC to form any deal with APNU in establishing a broad national alliance for the upcoming elections.

According to him, the APNU is already doing its work in its constituency while the AFC would have had to continue working to garner more supports which were traditionally PPP/C and to break the PPP/C’s stronghold.

He however noted that this would now become a difficult task since those who may have been prepared to back the AFC will now return to the PPP/C, due to the alliance with the APNU, which is still referred to by Indo Guyanese as the PNC.

AFC’s leader, Khemraj Ramjattan had been previously quoted as saying that joining forces with APNU would severely impact the AFC’s constituency, especially supporters who are dissatisfied with both the PPP/C and PNCR/APNU.

But the minority party’s Vice Chairman and now Prime Ministerial Candidate for the new alliance, Moses Nagamootoo is on record telling a public meeting at New Amsterdam recently that “APNU is like a large umbrella that has attracted large numbers of people, particularly Afro Guyanese.

But APNU cannot win an election alone, APNU needs to have a strategic alliance with the church and the trade unions and other groups and the AFC could bring in the eleven per cent.” At the last elections, the AFC under an Indian Guyanese leader Khemraj Ramjattan won 10.3 per cent of the votes mainly from the Indian dominated Region Six (East Berbice-Corentyne) votes.

History of rigging

Ramkarran a former PPP/C Executive noted that many Indo-Guyanese are still concerned about the history of “rigging and food shortage” that accompany the PNC, now the largest party in APNU. As such, the AFC would have to convince its supporters many of whom are originally PPP/C supporters.

He speculated that the commitment to shift some of the powers of the President to the Prime Minister and others might be a move to concretise the aforementioned.

“It is to give the AFC some real substantial power so the AFC can go to its supporters that in an arrangement with the PNC or APNU, we have substantial political authority, so we would be in a position to protect your interest,” Ramkarran added.

Under the Cummingsburg Accord, APNU gets the Presidential Candidate and AFC, the Prime Ministerial Candidate; the latter party has been assured 12 seats in the 65 seat Parliament.

This would be approximately 36 per cent of the combined seats by the two parties in the 10th Parliament.

In the construct of a new Government, APNU will be allocated one Vice President while AFC will be allocated two Vice Presidents, both of whom will be members of the Cabinet.

Under this arrangement, the President will delegate several responsibilities to the Prime Minister including the chairmanship of the Cabinet and matters supporting the Domestic National Affairs.

Deeply political

The former Speaker noted that while this decision would be an indication of the parties’ commitment to reducing the powers of the President, it is deeply political. Asked whether this would require constitutional change, Senior Counsel Ramkarran pointed that this could very well work under an informal arrangement.

“For these to be formally put in place they will have to amend the constitution, but they do not have to amend to operate them informally,” he explained. An amendment of this nature would require a two-thirds majority vote in the National Assembly.

“The PPP/C is not going to support any innovative procedures in relation to the constitution because they are comfortable with the constitution as it is and are fearful that any interference would affect their powers when they get back into office,” he said.