I believe many of Nagamootoo supporters will go back to the PPP, thanks to PNC racism and persecution of ppp officials.
I have already told you that they ran back to the PPP in 2015. Please look and compare the results for Region 6 in 2011 and in 2015. Note that in that region the PNC/AFC combined normally pull in a decent number of votes due to New Amsterdam and the black/mixed voters on the rest of the coast.
Why do you think that Nagamootoo was so easily sidelined, not only by APNU but even by the AFC. Its because he brought little to the table in 2015.
The Indo votes that APNU/AFC got came from G/T as they did too well for this to have been only from the black and mixed voters. These weren't Nagamootoo voters, and I suspect that these are the very people who despise Jagdeo. I will be very curious about what they do. They tend to be disproportionately middleclass, so less vulnerable to ethnic panic.
The winner in 2020 will be the party which can get its base out and keep the base of the other party at home. Both parties have balanced ethnic bases and so its the limited cross ethnic voting, or a particular group staying home, which will impact the results.
Jagdeo is a polarizing character. I suggest that the PPP finds someone else now and then have that person engage in cross ethnic wooing if the PPP wants to guarantee victory. The rice farmers aren't doing badly now.