Majority rejects APNU/AFC coalition  

− NACTA poll predicts PPP/C re-election

An opinion poll conducted by the North American Caribbean Teachers Association (NACTA) in February showed a majority of the nation opposes the formation of an alliance between the two opposition parties A Partnership for National Unity (APNU) and Alliance For Change (AFC).

PPP/C Presidential Candidate Donald Ramotar

Voters feel the alliance, instead of fostering the defeat of the People’s Progressive Party/Civic (PPP/C/C), will help in its re-election. For supporters of AFC and PPP/C, a PNC-led ticket evokes memories of past abuses.

Supporters and sympathizers of the AFC are seething in discontent with the party for entering into a union with APNU, or the People’s National Congress (PNC), leading to an exodus in support for the party.

Supporters of the PNC are also angry with their leadership for giving up too much to the AFC to form the alliance that may not win the election. Members and supporters of AFC are also are turned off by what they perceive as the leadership cutting deals for positions for themselves and not consulting with them on entering into an alliance with the PNC. Overall, a majority of voters express the view that the AFC has erred in forming an alliance with APNU and say it will pay a heavy price even if the alliance wins, because many feel the PNC cannot be trusted with power given its past.

The poll showed that the nation is largely divided along race on the alliance matter, as well as on other issues. Almost every Indian voter is opposed to the alliance, while a large majority of Africans and Mixed people endorse it. A majority of Amerindians are also opposed to the alliance.

It is generally felt that had the AFC remained independent from the PNC, it would have built on its current support. The AFC supporters said if former PPP/C stalwart Moses Nagamootoo were the Presidential Candidate of the newly formed alliance, they would have considered voting for it.

Some among other ethnic groups who had planned to vote for AFC have also had a change in heart for the party because of the alliance.
Many Indians support Ralph Ramkarran as a consensus Presidential Candidate saying if he were the candidate of the alliance, they would vote for it. Ramkarran enjoys support among all ethnic groups as Presidential Candidate of the alliance.

APNU/AFC Presidential Candidate David Granger

He is one of a few political figures with support from both sides of the political and racial divide. It is also felt that a Ramkarran-Nagamootoo ticket would have swept the election. A Donald Ramotar-Ramkarran ticket would also have won a landslide with many saying the incumbent President should have chosen Ramkarran as his Prime Ministerial running mate (before he announced Elisabeth Harper).

The findings of the poll are obtained from interviews with 620 voters to yield a demographically representative sample (42 per cent Indians, 31 per cent Africans, 17 per cent Mixed, nine per cent Amerindians, and one per cent other races) of the population.

The poll was conducted in face-to-face interviews and was coordinated by New York-based pollster Dr Vishnu Bisram. The results of the poll were analyzed at a 95 per cent significance level with a statistical sampling error of plus or minus four percentage points.

Queried whether APNU and AFC should jointly contest the elections as one party, 55 per cent said no, 38 per cent responded yes, and seven per cent said not sure.

Almost every Indian said no, with a large majority of Africans and Mixed races saying yes, and most Amerindians also opposed to it. Many APNU supporters also register opposition to the alliance saying their party would have had a good chance of capturing power if AFC had contested separately and split the PPP/C support base. 

Asked if they support the secret nature of the negotiations between the APNU and AFC to form an alliance, 83 per cent said no, feeling they have something to hide. Only eight per cent supported the secret talks between the two parties, with nine per cent offering no opinion.

Asked who should be the Presidential Candidate of the alliance, Indians overwhelmingly back Nagamootoo while Africans overwhelmingly support Granger. Some respondents feel Carl Greenidge should be the Presidential Candidate, describing him as the most qualified and experienced and internationally exposed among the potential contenders.

Former Speaker of the National Assembly Ralph Ramkarran

APNU/AFC Prime Ministerial Candidate Moses Nagamootoo

Asked if there were no alliance, who should be the Presidential Candidate of APNU, supporters are divided down the middle between Granger and Greenidge.

For AFC, if there were no alliance, Nagamootoo leads Nigel Hughes in Presidential preference among supporters.
Almost every Indian and Amerindian supporter of AFC backs Nagamootoo while Africans and the Mixed lean towards Hughes. The poll also queried voters on how they plan to vote. The findings will be released in a subsequent report.