Nah, most likely outcome PPP 33, Opposition 32.  Possible outcome PPP 34 Opposition 31.  leh we see in little over a week.

 

The AFC will not lose just 1 Berbician Indian seat if it loses any. Both Berbician seats will stay or be lost. Plus there is the 3rd Indian AFC seat who I suspect are just as Indian as the rest of Guyana. All the Berbician Indians are poised to defect. I believe they already have.

 

This is a whole different election. Indians are not just being asked to vote against the PPP but also to cast a ballot for the PNC Presidential candidate. Tough tough sell! There will be no half apan jaat here among the anti-PPP Indians.

 

The key for an APNU-AFC victory now is an increased Black/Mixed turnout to mitigate the loss of Berbice and to increase the size of the voting electorate and haul the lion's share of these voters. I am not of the opinion that the 2015 anti-PPP Indian malcontents are any more likely to vote for Granger than the 2011 anti-PPP Indian malcontents.

May 11th is taking to long to reach.

I'm gonna go out on a limb here and say that this will not be an indecisive PPP/C victory if they pull it off. A victorious PPP will carry 34 or as much as 35 seats. The AFC will bleed 2 Berbician seats in toto; or the 2 Berbician seats plus its additional 3rd Indian seat.

 

A PPP win will either be:

32+2 AFC Berbician MPs=34; or

32+3 AFC Indians MPs=35

The above is true. So too is a new dynamic - this is the first elections in Guyana wit ha significant social media dimension. This means that there is a loosening of the full apan jaat because of what people see.

 

When the treatment of the Alabama mpeace marchers were seen by the rest of the US attitudes changed. When Bheri and Nandalall and Jagdeo Babu John go viral; when Jagdeo's pension and mansion stay online; when all the drug intercepts are online, forever. this time na laan time dis a social media time......

 

In a 1970s, 80s, 90s, or 00s world, yes full apan jaat and no half apaan jaat; but in this day and age, it's different.

This cut both ways, the "apan jhat" on both sides are a matter of public information.  Social media will not change the mindset of Guyana, alyuh in lala land.  The fact that the "in your face" tightness between the armed forces and the PNC prevails, all other issues take a back seat.  Indians view  return of the PNC as a resurrection of the old guard.  Nothing else matters.

 

Nobody is gonna vote on any issues. This is Guyana. Issues are used to rationalize predetermined positions.

 

And social media skews towards the Opposition because they put in the effort. People enthusiastically support the Coalition. The PPP does not have enthusiastic supporters but a reliable base of people who hate them but still vote for them. Especially when given no third option.

 

Guyana's elections are Presidential elections. People are voting race and the Presidency because we have a one-man system.

 

The Indian people will not vote for Granger or the PNC in sufficient numbers to swing the election.

 

And the Indians really understand that this election is a choice between Indian Presidential Rule and Black Presidential Rule. I suspect that is not such a difficult choice for the average Guyanese to make.

 

The more Indian rule is put in jeopardy, the more effective will be the apaan jaat calls. Every Indian pretty much understands this. Only you pontificators seem to miss the sense of the common man.

P.S...Free advice to APNU-AFC. Two choices lay before you:

 

1) Wait out the Indians to become a voting minority; or

 

2) Break Indian tribal voting by removing the principal cause of our tribal voting. Balance the forces and the civil services to represent the nation. Then there will be no cause for Indian insecurity so it removes the principal rationale in the minds of a huge number of Indians for sticking with the PPP in their search for "security." Of course I have no confidence of the Opposition taking positive steps to make Indians physically secure because its much more politic to hold us hostage in perpetuity at the barrel of a gun to compel our "good behavior."

first was the PPP blackman "beat nuff coolie" tribal drumbeat . . . dat wan not wukkin so good rite now

 

so, like a typical, lazy, cow battie fly, u circle all the way back - on the same thread even - to the (abee pan tap bai) Indo majoritarian 'position': "Nobody is gonna vote on any issues. This is Guyana. Issues are used to rationalize predetermined positions."

 

then cover yuh bt lil with incoherent "advice" to an out-of-government AFC-APNU that they "Balance the forces and the civil services to represent the nation" and Shaitaan's "Indians" will break with "tribal voting"

 

strange, this dizzying, dervish-like prancing around in full tribal regalia . . . but then again, not really that strange

 

Freddie Kissoon nailed it!

sheer brilliance by we fren Karim muller

I agree GT. The Board is in debt to Kari here for boldly predicting either a PPP victory or a Coalition victory

Yuh just can't beat a QC heducation

de QC GNI chapter loaded wid intellects jus look at Alena & Muller Karim

 

Alena....another fine example of a QC heducation. She ah spend day and night worrying about Black people

Q2C

 

That was her nic in the QC tile lets

 

Alena, Q2C

Lmfao

 

Dah gyal was voted "Most Hot Blooded, Class of 1981"

Muller guh buze abee fuh derailin he tred

If you exit your little Indian bubble and understand that Guyana is a multi ethnic nation, you will understand that in a an election as close as this, you not only must consider the Indian dynamic, but also the African/mixed dynamic.

 

In 2006 African/mixed voters were disaffected with Cirbin.  Some voted AFC.  Others stayed home. PNC got 114k votes, its worst performance since 1992 and a loss of 50k voters from 2001.

 

In 2011 APNU only began to campaign at the last minute, however tremendous frustration with the PPP caused a 25k increase in votes.  Maybe 5k of those votes represented people who had voted AFC in 2006.  This means that APNU got about 20k votes from people who didn't vote in 2006.

 

APNU started to effectively campaign much earlier this time, and much more energetically.  Whereas last time large numbers of those turning out to rallies were the usual middle aged PNC African women, this year more young voters are coming out.  The crowds also aren't as monolithically African this time.

 

I get the sense that there is a wave of excitement among younger black and mixed voters which was absent in 2006 and even to a degree in 2011.

 

Voter turn out in PNC strongholds will be higher this year than in previous years.  Maybe even reaching levels of 97 and 01.

 

I am not sure whether there are similar levels of excitement in PPP strongholds.  Will it be hope in APNU areas vs. apathy/fear in PPP areas?

 

So all of you lot who live in an Indian bubble, and who have the impression that Indians ONLY determine election results, adjust your thinking slightly.  While Indians are still the largest bloc, more than their 40% representation in the population suggests, the gap between this bloc and the combined African/mixed bloc is diminished.  APNU AFC grabs around 75-80% of the mixed vote.  And likely more if there is increased turnout among younger voters.

 

Nice one.

 

Yes APNU+AFC 33 seats seem like the most likely results.

 

I do not expect them to get 34 seats or more.

In addition baseman you need to factor that shifting demographics is fast removing the Indian advantage in votes.  By 2020 it is likely that almost 50% of the voters will be mixed or African, while Indians will be well under 45%.  At that point the PPPs strategy of "scare collie about bad black man" begins to have seriously negative impact on Indians. 

 

Every racial panic strategy causes racial panic not only among the people who the particular party wishes to panic, but it also causes a backlash from people who believe that they are being stigmatized.

 

Can Indians really afford to live in Guyana, where African and mixed voters, who by 2020 will outnumber them, if these people feel that the party which represents Indians is seen as a hostile threat and supported by Indians?

 

Think carefully about this.

Hey Jalil/George,

Whah happen to them 41+seats the Coalition was gettin? Ayuh adjust to a more modest 33 now that the polls have ya'll struggling at 30?

33 look more as the reality today.  You know how the Guyanese electorate stay, the slippery.

 

But the rooting for the coalition but no landslide.

 

Signed George ROSS.

 

I do not know who is Jalil.

I see you into building castles out of sand.  Don't fret yuhself, in 8 days, all awee and waan family.....under the PPP guardian angel.

When black people were shot down in Linden did that look like the PNC controlled the armed forces?

 

Note that this Guyana that you talk about was 40 years ago.  The vast majority of Guyanese have no idea what you are talking about.   A more relevant reference would have been the violent protests, but even those were 15 years ago.

YO BASEBOARD, BASEMAN SHIVDATT, you bald head.  Why don't you SHUT UP.  You post so much giberish every day that you come across as a BITTER, BOARISH BADTARD.

 

Please save the human race and cut your BULL CRAP.

hehehee shit stain going buck wilde. Post some mo pics dere Georgie.

Rest assured if the PPP wins it will NOT be "all awe waan family".  You cannot run the type of blatantly racist campaign that the PPP has run, with the aim of scaring Indians, and then expect to be accepted by others.

 

I am still waiting for you to outline what the PPP is doing to reduce African anxieties about them!

Look Antiman,

No party is currently polling 33 seats in Guyana. None!

Shaits, let me wrap my head around your ethnic scenario voting that you learnt at your school that is not QC.

 

Indians are 42% of the population and let's say total population has a direct relationship to eligible voters. If the PPP/C gets 95% as you've been postulating that's around 40% of eligible voters.

 

It means that to get 51% their 100% eligible voters = 100% actual voters and the other ethnic party's 100% eligible voters = to say, 50% of actual voters. Plus they would split the mixed race votes and Amerindian votes.

 

Did this QC-heducated bwoi learn something here?

1.  So what do you plan to do with all of those unemployed Africans, some of whom are trained in the use of guns.  The Indo dominated private sector will not hire them (except was well paid goons), and you don't even wish to discuss the African ethnic anxiety dilemma which stems from this very fact!

 

2. IF an APNU gov't introduced a mandatory draft for Indians, and arrested those Indians who didn't comply you and others would be screaming about genocide.  Look at the behavior when Burnham introduced mandatory National Service for all UG students. 

 

You all live in this Indian bubble and refuse to understand what is happening outside of it. 

Wow, edgy. As they say Jalil pelt wan stone a sty, da PIG wah halla, ah he get am.

heheheheh Baseboard thats a new one hehehhehehe 

 

LMAO.......

....and that poll is?

What you think bully, only "Afros" know how to use a gun!  When I hear the liked of you, more reason for the PNC to stay in opposition.

Well horse shit "Rab/Brandon", I see you like to tag along for the ride.

  Baseman here is the deal.  Take Granger Moses now or take Granger in 2020. As the Indian population shrinks the African/mixed population will increasingly sense that they don't need to split the Indian vote, necessitating concessions to an Indo led group.

 

Seems to me that the better deal for Indians is the Granger Moses deal.  I am not sure what the Granger deal in 2020 will be.

The bubble Caribny refers to is occupied as follows:

• Bill O'Reilly (Shaitaan)
• Sean Hannity (Baseman)
• Rush Limbaugh (Conscience)
• Glen Beck (Nehru)
• Megan Fox (alena06)

hey the man is having fun with you there baseboard. One calling you baseboard the other calling you basement. hehehehheee tis funny shit.

 

Tomorrow I will be sase the next day I will be Freddie who knows.