Kari we know the African/mixed share of the population of these regions.  We know based on past elections they vote PNC.  We can argue about whether they turn out more or less than do Indians.  I will assume that their turn out is the same.

In Regions 5 and 6 35% of the population is African/mixed, not 100% Indian as you seem to assume by attributing every vote to the PPP or Moses.

In these regions 80,200 voted in 2011  Taking 35% of that we get 28k African/mixed.  If this group's % of increase in turn out is 50% of what it was in region 10 then that is a 12% increase, suggesting that 3,300 more voted.  Yet the coalition only increased its votes by 1,200, suggesting a loss of 2,100 Indian votes.  If I assume a 20% increase (in line with G/town) than 5,600 more of these votes, meaning that the coalition lost 4,500 Indian votes.

BOTTOM line.  Moses LOST some of the support which he gained.  This being especially true in Region 6, where, despite a higher African/mixed turn out, the coalition LOST votes.  30% of Region 6 is African/mixed you ought to know. 

But note that the PPP drew out 10,200 MORE votes from these regions than they did in 2011. So even if Moses had kept is 11k votes from these regions it still would not have been enough to deliver the margin of victory to offset this significantly higher PPP vote.  But He LOST some of those votes.

Kari and VVP.   There was a small Indo swing vote.  But without the African tsunami (a possible 20% increase in the turn out) this swing vote  would NOT have been enough to offset the fact that the PPP turned out an additional 35k votes.

The PPP panicked the East Indian and the Amerindian about the prospects of the return of African rule.  Look also in the interior locations. 

The PPP almost won Region 8 and INCREASED its margins in regions 1 and 9.  It is only in Region 7, dominated heavily by Bartica that the PPP lost ground in the interior.

1.  The Indian swing vote was much smaller than anticipated with Moses losing Indo votes in Regions  5 and 6.

2.  A record African/mixed vote showed up that offset the fact that a highly successful racist campaign by the PPP led to Moses being unable to deliver the margins necessary to win.

Freddie say so, and you have FAILED to prove otherwise.

Now we can debate about the numerous factors as to why the black vote turned out.

1.  APNU ran a good get out to vote campaign and the young elements were very effective.

2. The PPP ran a racist campaign against black, which terrified them as to what more PPP rule might mean for them, and the tensions in G/twn on the night of the election, and the delirious celebrations when victory was announced, indicated the degree to which Africans felt victimized by PPP RACISM.

3. The Moses factor of a Indo swing vote was anticipated, but he did NOT deliver it.

You all also need to stop signaling to the coalition that this was a "national unity" victory.  It wasn't as the majority of East Indians and Amerindians are hostile to this result.  They will have to do much outreach to these communities, in addition to placating the African/mixed communities which showed up in the large numbers, offsetting the fact that the anticipated Moses Indo vote didn't materialize in the numbers that it was hoped.

VVP I have said loads on this subject,  If you cannot understand really cannot help you.

I went indepth into each individual region, telling you what the margins in each region were. 

BOTTOM LINE.  In the regions dominate by the PPP they won the bulk of the incremental votes.  Their margin of victory over APNU AFC INCREASED. And that is despite the fact that the African/mixed vote would have surged in those regions, delivering votes for the coalition.

It is clear to all except for the Moses fanatics, that Moses DID NOT deliver a split Indian vote in any significant way.  Had there not been a surge of the African vote, as high as 20% in locations like Linden and South G/town the PPP would have WON.

So relax and enjoy what ever benefits that the coalition brings.  Hope that its performance brings more Indians and Amerindians to their side in 2020 so we can finally have an election which isn't a low grade civil war.

In 2015 African/mixed, Indians, and Amerindians all participate in an election based on ethnic fear, this due to the racist tactics of the PPP.

People with a good grasp of maths must be laughing their heads off at your jumbie maths.  Look at my answer to question 2 and tell me why you think the AFC did not pick up incremental votes.

You meant to say, not even 1%?

A "Tsuami" does not happen in a vaccum,

And you attribute 100% of the tsunami to Moses?

I see so Moses didn't deliver a significant Indo vote so now some are now trying to claim that he delivered the Afro vote!

There are a whole host of reasons why loads of blacks voted, not all to do with Moses.  SORRY!

.All your  analysis is pure shit based on ASSumptions.

As is yours for dreaming that blacks only came out because of Moses.

I suggest that you stop eyeing up those PNC voters.  They came out for Granger.

They came out because of Moses.

So tell Jay to stop fussing about Hammie because obviously NOTHING happens in the coalition, unless Lord Moses ordained it. 

Moses was the catalyst. ..  

So congratulate Moses for nominating Hammie.  I mean 100% of every thing that the coalition does in due to Lord Moses.  Tell Jay to do the same!

So you finally agree that Moses was the catalyst for toppling the PPP/C. Thanks.

I agree on nothing. 

You do so if you think that Moses did every thing and that no one else or nothing else should be credited, then obviously Moses nominated Green, and Granger just nodded as he remains under the Moses spell.

I agree on nothing. 

You do so if you think that Moses did every thing and that no one else or nothing else should be credited, then obviously Moses nominated Green, and Granger just nodded as he remains under the Moses spell.

And you attribute 100% of the tsunami to Moses?

I see so Moses didn't deliver a significant Indo vote so now some are now trying to claim that he delivered the Afro vote!

There are a whole host of reasons why loads of blacks voted, not all to do with Moses.  SORRY!

.. You can start a thread opposing Hammie's appointment or awards rather than creating your own argument to derail this thread.

Now why would I start a thread to oppose the fact that your Lord and Master Moses nominated a known criminal for the top awards.

You can't have it both ways -  claim the "Africian tsunami" is the factor that gives the coalition the victory but denied it was a well thought out AFC strategy ..yuh can dance like wan kankawa kite but the fact that Moses/AFC gamble is the motivating element for the tsunami/victory  

What incoherent babble are you braying.  The African vote is for the PNC, so what does Moses Nagamootoo have to do with it?

Originally Posted by Mitwah:

.. You can start a thread opposing Hammie's appointment or awards rather than creating your own argument to derail this thread.

Now why would I start a thread to oppose the fact that your Lord and Master Moses nominated a known criminal for the top awards.

It's your MO when you are cornered.  You wanted to create a smoke screen by mentioning Hammie... It wont work with me. You are not able to deny that Moses was the Catalyst for the APNU+AFC victory. 

The African vote was for the APNU+AFC unity. %'age is not of relevance. Moses was the catalyst for their victory.

Originally Posted by caribny:

Originally Posted by Mitwah:

.. You can start a thread opposing Hammie's appointment or awards rather than creating your own argument to derail this thread.

Now why would I start a thread to oppose the fact that your Lord and Master Moses nominated a known criminal for the top awards.

It's your MO when you are cornered.  You wanted to create a smoke screen by mentioning Hammie... It wont work with me. You are not able to deny that Moses was the Catalyst for the APNU+AFC victory. 

So go congratulate Moses for giving Hammie, the murderer, an award. After Moses made blacks vote, no one else or no other factors were responsible.

So clearly Moses runs the PNC and Granger has to ask him for permission for all his actions.

Now go and tell Jay that he must also congratulate the murderer for getting an award.

And as you think that Moses controls APNU AFC then he should also be praised for giving Hammie, the murderer and award.  Yes the same man who groomed Lumumba and the other thugs over at the PPP. 

Moses was the catalyst for the APNU+AFC victory.

And so should be praised for giving a man, who possibly killed as many people as Roger Khan did, an award.

Come on.  You praise Moses for getting PNC voters to vote in record numbers.  So why not praise this all powerful deity for giving a criminal an award too?  I mean you cannot have your cake and eat it too.

You are going off at a tangent. Before the election, I pointed out your negativity to the coalition. You were ready to pounce on the AFC should they have failed to gain the majority. Moses proved himself to be the Catalyst.

caribny made all the wrong calls on so much important shyte prior to, during the election campaign, and now post-election . . . all he has left is neo-triumphalist ethnic shit and and racial division peddling in his long, ignominious crawl back to relevance

it is quite tempting to leave him to drown in the tribal haterade pool he oddly shares with the likes of shaitaan, et al

You are not fair to Caribny and should not resort to name calling. It is beneath you. You may not like his opinion but he is entitled to it just as you and I are. Let's be civil folks! Our interests are the same, moving Guyana forward!

Yes all praises to Moses who gave Hammie Green an award.  I mean if the man single handedly ran the PNC campaign and so is solely responsible for the high turn out of its base, then give him credit for forcing the PNC to give the criminal Hammie Green an award too.

I mean this is a deity and the PNC cannot do anything with out Lord Moses!

I won't go so far and say he is a deity. Moses was the Catalyst to help PNC /APNU out of the opposition.

As is yours for dreaming that blacks only came out because of Moses.

I suggest that you stop eyeing up those PNC voters.  They came out for Granger.

So he is a deity. 

Listening to the AFC cult.

1.  There was no massive African vote, only the Indian swing vote can be credited.

2.  But then we hear that there was a large African vote, ONLY (primarily) due to Moses.

No other factors, and no one else contributed to the coalition victory.  Moses only.  Yes Lord Moses who waves his hands and PNC supporters follow his very command.

Well Hammie Green got a medal and if Moses is so powerful than he ought to be credited for this.

You cannot claim 100% credit, but then suddenly pretend to be powerless!

That a lot of stuff from the bovine behind that you posted.

Moses is the catalyst for the APNU+AFC victory.

No, they came out because they realize, and small swing Nagamootoo brought must be augmented.  They smell blood.  Without that impetus, many would have not bothered and you would be drinking kool aid vs Milk and Honey.

That a lot of stuff from the bovine behind that you posted.

Moses is the catalyst for the APNU+AFC victory.

Assuming you can understand some maths given that there was no scientific survey the following assumptions are viable since the percentage did not change significantly in 2015:  See attached file for better clarity.