Electoral College Prediction Model Points To A Mitt Romney Win In 2012

Kari, are you shivering from the electoral college prediction?

Note.

Will Mitt Romney win in 2012?

No .. not even in 2028.

In any prediction there is a slight margin for error. This was not meant for democrats to feel uneasy about the outcome of the election, rather it sends a comfort message to republicans that there is light at the end of the tunnel.

Ii wrote a piece earlier on Demographics versus Economic in the 2012 race. Obama starts with a 205 to 170 Electoral College vote advantage if you give each their traditional States (New York for the Dems and Texas for the GOP for instance). Split the others even-stevens, and Obama has 4 scenarios where he gets to 270, if he only gets one of the four. These are the Hispanic-laden South Western states of Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada and Arizona; the mid-west Ohio, Michigan and Iowa; the mid-Atlantic Pennsylvania and the Carolinas; and lastly Florida.

Note this, people are waiting for payback for the TEA party embarrassing this country over the debt ceiling debate and threat of default. Obama might be the beneficiary of a Bradley effect - close polling until time to pull the lever, when the question is whom do I like more, Obama or Romney, is answered.

Fact is that Obama will not win the election. The Democrats can spin this whatever way they want but Obama is finished.

America needs a leader with a vision and economic plan to move it forward. Obama is like Burnham, all talk and no substance. He will go down in history as the food stamp president.

There are more people in America on food stamps than the entire population of Canada.

Imagine that ! 

Canada has 30mil...US has over 350mil

Food stamps are easy to get in the US

Raymond and republican supporters are proud of Obama's record of over 40 million Americans living off food stamps. This is disgraceful. This is one of the many reasons why Americans are fed up with Obama.

We have not touched the issue of the millions who have lost their homes. The list continues...............

Like you want some of that Obama "stamp"? you racist fool.

You must be on crack

Hey foolish Kari,

I am stating the fact that over 40 million of Americans are on food stamps. Very disgraceful of you to add race to hard facts. They race card will not work, post something better.

Should I now add the number of foreclosures under Obama ? I guess we now see the real reason why Obama will not win.

I forgive your lack of intelligence. Do some reading, google is your friend.

Over 40 million of Americans are living on foodstamps today. Yes, over 40 million.

dude...reread what you wrote

"Raymond and republican supporters are proud of Obama's record"

like I said...get off the pipe yuh smokin

Fact remains, Obama will be voted out of office . Over 40 million on foodstamps is not something to be proud of.

Yu-Kakamania......you're just an idiot who don't like Black people. You don't know crap about the food stamp system or what happened in housing.

I agree with Obama that he would rather have the housing sector drag the economy and spoil his re-election chance, rather than bail out fools who are unemployed and own million dollar homes through the wild-west shenanigans leading up to 1006, 2007, 2008. You know that the TEA party was born following Santelli's rant on CNBC over honest hard-working tax payers giving money to their neighbors who don't work and should never have been given a mortgage. Obama signed a program to help 4 million home-owners. One million failed to repay in  the 1st month. Another million were rejected because of fraud. Of the others the banks, not Obama, are doing their thing to slow things up. So shut yuh racist kakahole.

Leave it at that.

thank god you emigtated to Canada...stay there

Dragging race into this will not change anything. Can you prove that i am racist ?

I am stating the fact that over 40 million of Americans are on foodstamps under Obama's watch. I guess you and your democrat friends are proud of this record. Keep it up.

you are a racist

So what if 40 mil are on foodstamps? It is a safety net. IN economic down times, people need to know they can manage and their government can help. Could you imagine that kinds of security blanket in other nations? BTW check NY food stamp stats. almost 10 percent of Guyanese immigrants were on some government assistance not inclusive of student loans etc. That is the greatness of this land.

OBAMA did not cause the economic collapse. He was tasked to set up a triage on the economy immediately, assess its wounds, intervene to stop the decline of the patient and now he is nursing it back to health.  I do not see a plan from Romney except the Bush plan that got the state into such poor economic health in the first place.

Important reminder.

By the time many Americans find out what the GOP plan to do to them this prediction will fall in tatters.

Yes fund tax cuts for the super rich by reducing loop holes (removing deductions for 401(k)/IRAs, mortgage interest, etc).

So the middle class will fund the wealthy.

And we havent even gotten to what their plans for those under 54 for Medicare. That they keep as a secret, except that the plan is really what Ryan INITIALLY spoke about.

Obama is no hero and I have said so many times......but Romney/Ryan is a nightmare.

Of the swing states Obama should win FL (thanks to Ryan), PA,WI,MN,CO and maybe OH, and IA.

He will lose VA and NC which were fluke wins as these states are moderate GOP.

So he MIGHT score a nail biting victory, not because of him, but hopefully what Americans find out about Romney/Ryan and their plans for the middle class.

Of course there is a scenario which says that blacks, single women and young voters, all of whom are now arguably worse off than they were in early 2008, decide not to vote.  In which case we are then having to deal with the Romney/Ryan nightmare.

The debt ceiling is an after elections fiasco.  What is more important is what will the Sept jobs report, due early October, show.

The Dems need to force the GOP to tell us what EXACTLY they plan to do so they can stop fooling people with the flag waving and platitudes, which unfortunately many lower middle class white voters thrive on.

Thats not even worth debating as it is so obvious.

Bush destroyed the economy and his policies are to be blamed for that.

The same policies which Romney/Ryan promote and promote an even more aggressive form than we had under Bush.

When Reagan's folks (David Stockman)say that Romney/Ryan are a danger you know that something is wrong.

That might happen but by 2016 25% of Americans, who do not benefit from Medicare/Medicaid, will be uninsured.

Do you know that the GOP plan to force employers to stop offering health insurance and to prevent them from deducting premiums if they do?  So many will stop offering.  Most Americans with families cant afford to buy health insurance on their own.

The GOP have yet to explain why our private sector based health care industry which has seen costs rising at multiples above inflation, will suddenly become "efficient".  There willl be no more competition than we have todsay...less as more health insurers are being acquired and hospitals closing down.