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Donald Trump’s marriage to Melania ends before his presidency: Odds are 5/1 in Europe’s Top 10 bets

Tristin Hopper | March 9, 2017 11:01 AM ET, http://news.nationalpost.com/n...-europes-top-10-bets

US President Donald Trump and First Lady Melania Trump board Air Force One in West Palm Beach, Florida, on February 18, 2017 to attend a rally in Melbourne, Florida.

Despite being home to such baffling sports as “bandy” and “handball,” Europe has apparently run out of games to bet on. Which is why the continent’s bookmakers now run a thriving trade of betting on politics, current affairs and the weather.

These aren’t just a great way to inject gambling into yet another corner of life, but betting on current events is well-known to be an eerily accurate predictor of future events.

Below, behold the oracle of European betting markets.

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Donald Trump’s marriage ends before his administration.
Odds: 5/1 (Win $60 on a $10 bet)
Unfortunately for newspaper sales, the betting markets are clearly favouring an outcome in which Melania remains First Lady until her husband is no longer Commander-in-Chief. The odds on the marriage remaining intact until a successor is inaugurated is 1/10. However, the bet is based on whether the couple finalizes divorce proceedings, which means estrangement is still in the cards.

AP Photo/Evan Vucci
AP Photo/Evan Vucci ... Ivanka Trump, left, and first lady Melania Trump listen as President Donald Trump speaks on Tuesday, Feb. 28, 2017, in the Oval Office of the White House in Washington.
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Someone who isn’t Vladimir Putin wins the next Russian presidential election.
Odds: 3/1 (Win $40 on a $10 bet)
Given Putin’s soaring popularity and Russia’s questionable relationship with democracy, the only real way Putin won’t win the 2018 presidential election is if he drops dead from one of those assassinations the country is so fond of. This is why bookies are pretty confident the odds on Putin remaining leader of Russia are a measly 1/4; bet $10 and you’ll only get $12.50 back if Putin wins. 

 
Alexei Druzhinin
Alexei DruzhininVladimir Putin, seen here celebrating International Women's Day at a newly opened maternity ward.
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Donald Trump bans Irish people from the United States.
Odds: 500/1 (Win $5010 on a $10 bet)
This bet is put up by the Irish bookmaker Paddy Power, so they’re appealing to their hometown audience here. Because, of course, the United States has had decades to find other people to ban besides the Irish. However, this bet is part of a whole series of available bets on what Donald Trump will ban. According to Paddy Power, the most likely ban is that Donald Trump will outlaw guns in a U.S. state (5/6 odds, win $18.33 on a $10 bet). Meanwhile, it’s 25/1 odds that Trump and Vladimir Putin will share a Nobel Peace Prize.

 

NewYorkTimes.com
NewYorkTimes.comIt used to be a much safer bet.
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Which country leaves the European Union next.
Favourite: Greece (2/1 odds, $30 on a $10 bet)
A Grexit is the obvious next candidate to leave the E.U. Greece probably shouldn’t have been let into the European Union in the first place, and the single currency has caused them nothing but trouble ever since. The next two most likely to leave are Italy and France, with 9/4 and 7/2 odds, respectively. The country least likely to leave the union, meanwhile, is Luxembourg. If the super-rich micro-country pulls a Luxembexit anytime soon, you could win $1510 on a $10 bet.

AP Photo/Paul Ames, File
AP Photo/Paul Ames, FileLuxembourg: Loyal to a fault.
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Geert Wilders becomes the next prime minister of the Netherlands.
Odds: 5/2 (Win $35 on a $10 bet)
Wilders, of course, is the Dutch politician with confusing hair who wants to completely purge his country of Islam (a religion he calls “retarded”). In a continent with an apparent weakness for extremism lately, Wilders is the one holding aloft the populist banner in clog country. However, betting markets hold that the much more likely scenario is that Wilders doesn’t get the top job. Bet $10 against him and you’ll only get a profit of $2.50 if he loses.

AFP Photo / Emmanuel Dunand
AFP Photo / Emmanuel Dunand Far-right politician Geert Wilders, and his hair, pictured at The Hague on March 8.
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The colour of the Chancellor of the Exchequer’s tie at the U.K. budget announcement.
Favourite: Blue (4/9 odds, win $14.44 on a $10 bet)
The U.K., of course, has a much sexier name for its minister of finance: Chancellor of the Exchequer. As the current office-holder Phillip Hammond announced the U.K.’s next budget this week, the most important question was obviously what colour tie he would be wearing. Blue is the obvious favourite for a Tory. Red and yellow are next, with brown in a distant last place with 25/1 odds ($260 on a $10 bet). Hammond wore blue, by the way.

WENN.com
WENN.comSee? Blue.
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What gender of twins come out of Beyonce?
Favourite: One boy and one girl (10/11 odds, win $19.09 on a $10 bet)
Fraternal boy-girl pairs are reportedly the most common type of twin birth, but fans already suspect the boy-girl outcome due to Beyonce’s choice of blue and pink for her pregnancy photoshoot. It’s why, in the less likely circumstances that Beyonce’s issue is a single-gendered pair, the payout on a $10 bet will be a respectable $37.50.

Matt Sayles/Invision/AP, File
Matt Sayles/Invision/AP, FileBeyonce and her baby bump, the contents of which would be of keen interest to European gamblers.
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First Trump child to denounce something he does as president.
Favourite: Tiffany (6/1 odds, win $70 on a $10 bet).
Obviously, Tiffany Trump leads in this category. The 23-year-old aspiring singer seems to be kept out of the spotlight as much as possible. Ivanka is next in line to betray her father, with 7/1 odds. And in last place is Barron. Sweet, faithful 10-year-old Barron could earn you a 16/1 payout if he suddenly managed to produce an anti-Trump YouTube rant. Incidentally, 16/1 is very close to the long odds that were once offered on the possibility of Trump becoming U.S. president.

The Canadian Press/Jonathan Hayward
The Canadian Press/Jonathan Hayward Verily I say unto you, that one of you shall betray me.
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An Act of God breaks Big Ben.
Odds: 100/1 (Win $1010 on a $10 bet)
It seems odd that the U.K. would bet on weather, since gloom and rain would clearly be the dynastic champion. However, bookmaker William Hill is offering odds on Big Ben breaking due to weather-related events. It could be ice, it could be snow or, presumably, it could be a Back to the Future-style lightning strike. But the iconic clock has to break before April 30.

AFP Photo / Justin Tallis
AFP Photo / Justin Tallis$10 says the bell tolls for thee, Big Ben.
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A referendum is held for a united Ireland before 2020.
Odds: 9/2 (Win $55 on a $10 bet)
Another Irish-centric bet from Paddy Power. This bet is premised on the idea that after all the bombings, assassinations and peace agreements, Northern Ireland will simply calm down and decide to hold a good, clean referendum on whether to haul down the Union Jack. For obvious reasons, the odds are against a united Ireland vote. If you put up $1000 on Ireland not holding a referendum, you would only make $125 if it came to pass.

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