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Bibi Haniffa posted:

Past performance will determine future results.  He did not become a billionaire because he is stupid.

It starts with inheritance, then graduates to borrowing, then declaring bankruptcies and stiffing investors and workers. The donald has more liabilities than assets and tons of law suits up the wazoo. You wanna know why he's not enthused about providing his tax returns?

Kari
Mars posted:
Bibi Haniffa posted:

Past performance will determine future results.  He did not become a billionaire because he is stupid.

So, since he filed for bankruptcy so many times, we can assume that the US will be in a depression again based on Trump's past results. Thankfully, he will be soundly whopped in November.

So Bibi is saying that Trump declaring bankruptcy wasn't because he was in financial difficulty. Its purely because he wanted to stiff investors, contractors and employees.

FM
ksazma posted:

To truly appreciate how far we have come since Obama took office, one has to reflect that the market was under 8000 points after the crash and is somewhere near 19000 points today. That is nearly two and a half time better. Also, we were losing some 800 thousand jobs each month for three consecutive months before the bleeding stopped followed by over seven years of positive monthly job growths. People can spin the facts however they want but that is their prerogative. The rich have gotten richer and the poor have gotten better although there is still need for improvement amongst the poor. My condition has also gotten better.

Rush is mad and it looks like some here accept his nonsense. Today he is doubling down by injecting race, religion and race which tells me that he is more worried about how great the Dems did last night even though he is pretending that the Dems had a bad night last night.

Bai, that market is one big hydrogen baloon pumped up by te Fed zero interest rate policy designed to mitigate the weak underlying economy.  The recent run up is seeing the back of Obama and Wall Street hedging more towards a Trump victory as the Hillary seem to be going flat and not connecting.  These are a whole sh1tload of emails yet to come, timing is of the essence.  It will highlight more crookedness with Hillary!

FM
Last edited by Former Member

Bill Clinton showed the human side of Hillary tonight and gave us a glimpse of what drives her - changing the lives of disadvantaged children.

He ended on the note about the real Hillary and the one made up by the Republicans. Boy did he bring it. His mention of Michelle got one of the biggest cheer of the night.

Then we were treated to Meryl Streep talking about Hillary's grit and grace along with all the women who achieved firsts; and Alicia Keys with her exhortation of unity and love.

Kari

Excellent Tuesday evening for the Democratic National Convention and a profound speech by Bill Clinton.

While there may be a very small pocket of delegates who may still be upset that Bernie Sanders is not the candidate, it would appear from the crowd's participation that an extremely large majority for Bernie Sanders are supporting Hillary Clinton and the movement forward.

FM
Last edited by Former Member

Bill Clinton tonight begun the strategy to make Hillary the real change maker by telling the narrative of how Hillary changed lives.

The Democrats understand that Hillary faces a trust/inevitability deficit and Bill did a good job in contrasting the real Hillary versus the caricature Hillary - the two dimensional one painted by the GOP for over 25 years. So the strategy is the gender politics - Hillary must be seen as trustworthy to women, especially the married white women. As pointed out by a commentator this should nullify the gap she seems unable to bridge with blue collar white males who are not College-educated.

Tomorrow night the top gun comes out - Barack Obama. Bloomberg and Biden will lead in I believe tomorrow with Chelsea introducing her mom Thursday.

You will note the discipline and tact of the Convention planners. even down to the signs (some creativity). You will also note no red meat attacks on Trump, who's Convention painted a dark picture while this one is about tomorrow and good things to come. The red meat will come after Labor Day with the SuperPacs and the swiftboating. We'll get a sh1tload of Trump university, Trump casino bankruptcies, Trump stiffing buildings contractors, Trump shitzing war veterans like McCain and handicapped people, all the fat-pig names of women, the Putin connection, the Mexican and Chinese factory connections for Trump-named merchandise. You ain't see nothing yet.

Kari
Kari posted:
 

"We'll get a sh1tload of Trump university,

Trump casino bankruptcies

Trump stiffing buildings contractors

Trump shitzing war veterans like McCain and handicapped people

All the fat-pig names of women

The Putin connection

The Mexican and Chinese factory connections for Trump-named merchandise. "

 

...and poor misguided people actually love this in a leader....aiaiaiaiai

cain
Last edited by cain
cain posted:
Kari posted:
 

"We'll get a sh1tload of Trump university,

Trump casino bankruptcies

Trump stiffing buildings contractors

Trump shitzing war veterans like McCain and handicapped people

All the fat-pig names of women

The Putin connection

The Mexican and Chinese factory connections for Trump-named merchandise. "

 

...and poor misguided people actually love this in a leader....aiaiaiaiai

In my office there are several suburban Republicans who hate Hillary.

Baseman when I ask them who they are going to vote for they mumble and walk quickly away.  No one in an environment with intelligent people will admit in public that they will vote Trump.

Admitting that one likes Trump is like admitting that one does heroin.

And by the debates it will get a WORSE!

FM

CARIBNY, given the electoral map with how voting in the last 3 election cycles, and polling of registered and expected voters, Clinton starts with 217 and Trump with 191. Hillary needs 53 from the likely contested States. These are Florida (29), Pennsylvania (20), Ohio (18), No. Carolina (15), Virginia (15), Wisconsin (10). That's 107 electoral college votes to fight over. There are a few more in single digits.

The prevailing thought is that blue collar whites (non-college-educated) who make up about 44% of the total voters are going for Trump in numbers that beat what Romney beat Obama by in this demographic. If you look at the States above this would have little impact in Florida (29), Ohio (18) and Wisconsin (10). That's the 57 that Hillary needs. Obama and Kerry carried Florida and I believe the others (though I'll have to verify these). The polling so far favor Hillary in all these. She might pick up another 20 or so. This means that yes, it will be a close race (as of this moment), but Hillary will triumph. We also know that after the debates you do get a significant swing in the battleground states which might even lead to a runaway victory for Hillary - but that is looking too far ahead.

Kari

A note on one of the former previous females who was a major contestant for the President-nominee at a Democrat National Convention ... someone with Guyanese ancestry. I featured her a while ago on GNI thread on Black History in the Social column.

Shirley Anita Chisholm

The first African–American Congresswoman, Shirley Anita Chisholm represented a newly reapportioned U.S. House district centered in Brooklyn, New York. Elected in 1968 because of her roots in the Bedford–Stuyvesant neighborhood, Chisholm was catapulted into the national limelight by virtue of her race, gender, and outspoken personality. In 1972, in a largely symbolic undertaking, she campaigned for the Democratic presidential nomination. But "Fighting Shirley" Chisholm's frontal assault on many congressional traditions and her reputation as a crusader limited her influence as a legislator. "I am the people's politician," she once told the New York Times. "If the day should ever come when the people can't save me, I'll know I'm finished. That's when I'll go back to being a professional educator."1

Shirley Anita St. Hill was born on November 20, 1924, in Brooklyn, New York. She was the oldest of four daughters of Charles St. Hill, a factory laborer from Guyana, and Ruby Seale St. Hill, a seamstress from Barbados. For part of her childhood, Shirley St. Hill lived in Barbados on her maternal grandparents' farm, receiving a British education while her parents worked during the Great Depression to settle the family in Bedford–Stuyvesant. The most apparent manifestation of her West Indies roots was the slight, clipped British accent she retained throughout her life. She attended public schools in Brooklyn and graduated with high marks. Accepted to Vassar and Oberlin colleges, Shirley St. Hill attended Brooklyn College on scholarship and graduated cum laude with a B.A. in sociology in 1946. From 1946 to 1953, Chisholm worked as a nursery school teacher and then as the director of two daycare centers. She married Conrad Q. Chisholm, a private investigator, in 1949. Three years later, Shirley Chisholm earned an M.A. in early childhood education from Columbia University. She served as an educational consultant for New York City's Division of Day Care from 1959 to 1964. In 1964, Chisholm was elected to the New York state legislature; she was the second African–American woman to serve in Albany.

Source --- http://history.house.gov/Peopl...Anita-%28C000371%29/

FM
Last edited by Former Member
cain posted:
caribny posted:
.....  No one in an environment with intelligent people will admit in public that they will vote Trump.

Admitting that one likes Trump is like admitting that one does heroin......

   Bazeless,Bibyski,Cobra,yugeee,skeldonbana and de rest gotta start post with, "Hi, I am ....and I am a dummy....

They come on GNI and boast about Trump. Bet they wouldn't in real life.  NOT in NYC.

I cannot think of any one who admits that they like Trump, and I am exposed to a wide cast of characters.

FM
Demerara_Guy posted:

A note on one of the former previous females who was a major contestant for the President-nominee in the Democrat National Convention ... someone with Guyanese ancestry. I featured her a while ago a on GNI thread on Black History in the Social column.

Shirley Anita Chisholm

 

Shirley Anita St. Hill was born on November 20, 1924, in Brooklyn, New York. She was the oldest of four daughters of Charles St. Hill, a factory laborer from Guyana,

Source --- http://history.house.gov/Peopl...Anita-%28C000371%29/

yes that fact is often forgotten.  Given that we are the 5th largest immigrant group in NYC we really have to stop this low profile nonsense!

FM
Kari posted:

CARIBNY, given the electoral map with how voting in the last 3 election cycles, and polling of registered and expected voters, Clinton starts with 217 and Trump with 191. Hillary needs 53 from the likely contested States. These are Florida (29), Pennsylvania (20), Ohio (18), No. Carolina (15), Virginia (15), Wisconsin (10). That's 107 electoral college votes to fight over. There are a few more in single digits.

The prevailing thought is that blue collar whites (non-college-educated) who make up about 44% of the total voters are going for Trump in numbers that beat what Romney beat Obama by in this demographic. If you look at the States above this would have little impact in Florida (29), Ohio (18) and Wisconsin (10). That's the 57 that Hillary needs. Obama and Kerry carried Florida and I believe the others (though I'll have to verify these). The polling so far favor Hillary in all these. She might pick up another 20 or so. This means that yes, it will be a close race (as of this moment), but Hillary will triumph. We also know that after the debates you do get a significant swing in the battleground states which might even lead to a runaway victory for Hillary - but that is looking too far ahead.

Right now polling shows PA and FL to be very close and OH in the GOP column.  Given demographic shifts in VA its believed that she has that one.

WI and OH are packed with white working class voters, as is MI, though no one is saying that MI is a risk.

While the Dems have an advantage they CANNOT take any thing for granted.

We have a STRUCTURAL problem with part of the electorate. Uneducated white men just discovered that their world has changed and they are ANGRY.  Their grandfathers were able to live middle class lives with their wives at home.  Now heroin and hopelessness has gripped this population which has seen its life expectancy rate DECLINE!  Married white women vote with their husbands. 

They hate educated liberals, and Hillary os definitely one.  The days when being white and male was all that was necessary have gone, and for many that was all they had.

THIS is where the biggest problem lies.  The challenge will be to get them to see the Trump con game.  Trump is exploiting their insecurities, and can get down to their level of simplistic thinking (Crooked Hillary).  Some one suggested Loser Trump as an equally simplistic one liner.

Kari these folks make uneducated Guyanese look highly intellectual.  Part of this is because Guyanese still respect the intellectual. These guys don't, so we get ignorance like "leave government out of my Medicaid".

Any way Giuliani did a good job. His ghoulish screaming scared blacks away from Trump. Normally the GOP get 10% of the black vote (when Obama isn't around), and 30% had previously claimed that they weren't bothered by Trump. Now its ZERO.  Thank you Rudy.   Black turnout is a make or break in states like PA, NC, VA, and FL.

FM
caribny posted:

Kari these folks make uneducated Guyanese look highly intellectual.  Part of this is because Guyanese still respect the intellectual. These guys don't, so we get ignorance like "leave government out of my Medicaid".

 

Note the Bazeless,Bibyski,Cobra,yugeee,skeldonbana and de rest fall intop the "these folks" category. They are anti-intellectual like these angry white non-College educated blue collar white males.

Acknowledgement to da Cainsta for use of his colorful phrase of names.

Kari

What really counts, is how Trumps approaches the White votes. I hope White people realizes that they can loose control of their country to a laziazz group of people who couldn't even sey boo in dem native countries. And now, dem all gat big big mouth about Trump. And the man made Billions of Dollars. History has shown Americans of such elites are shrewd people.

The Clintons gat their money from patronage. Certainly richer than the subordinates who are clammering for her. 

S
Kari posted:
caribny posted:

Kari these folks make uneducated Guyanese look highly intellectual.  Part of this is because Guyanese still respect the intellectual. These guys don't, so we get ignorance like "leave government out of my Medicaid".

 

Note the Bazeless,Bibyski,Cobra,yugeee,skeldonbana and de rest fall intop the "these folks" category. They are anti-intellectual like these angry white non-College educated blue collar white males.

Acknowledgement to da Cainsta for use of his colorful phrase of names.

Yes sadly life in North America has made that gang quite ignorant and anti intellectual.

FM
Kari posted:

add Seig-heil to the uninformed douche bags kneeling at the (vanishing) altar of Trump.

Trump once said that if he wanted to be president, he would run as a GOP candidate.  This because he thinks that the Republican base are stupid and ignorant.

Watch how he buys his supplies from Mexico and China, declares bankruptcy so that he can stiff contractors, and yet still knows that being a rich white man will guarantee him at least 45% of the votes.

FM

Tonight Barack Obama defined what America is and in the process showed how un-American Donald Trump is. He intoned that americans do not like to be ruled and pointed out the constitution preamble of all men being equal to answer the Donald's savior shout in Cleveland last week. Obama brought the Bernie left in his embrace by saying even if you're 100% right you still have to find common ground and compromise to move things along. Obama can speak from experience.

Bloomberg put it to the Donald about his "business" characteristics and I think moved wavering Independents along to Hillary. 

Biden shoo the complacent Democrats up with his anecdotes.

Trump's electoral strength is the 44% of the electorate demographic that is white male - the majority of whom are non-College-educated. He will win that group but tonight the Dems started chipping away. Trump has an almost 40% lead on Hillary with that demographic. The other white demographic - the women - is where Hillary is holding her own. The 28% non-white votes is still a 90 - 10 split for Hillary. So if you look at the percentages 90% of 28 = 25% (rounding off). 50% of white women is 50% of 28 = 14%. So Hillary has a sure 25% + 14% = 39% of the total votes cast. All she needs is 12% from that 44% white male demographic. The math says she needs about 28% and give the Donald the remaining 72% of this demographic.  That's a 43% Trump advantage. At the top of this paragraph I mentioned she's down by 40%, so she's 3% better than she needs to be. And she's just getting started to chip away. And.....Obama has now entered the fray - an outgoing President with over 50% favorability rating.

A note on Obama tonight. You have to see how his Constitutional law and background in community organizing influenced his understanding of the essential America. His line tonight that was most emphatic was we don't like to be ruled as it's self evident all men are equal. Now politicians in Guyana do not understand two things Obama referred tonight - you have to find common ground and the people rule. No winner take all and it's not the PPP or the PNC, it's Guyanese. Now we need a Mandela to bring Guyanese to that intersection and Guyana can begin to build a truly improving nation. Lessons from Obama.

Kari
Kari posted:

.

Trump's electoral strength is the 44% of the electorate demographic that is white male - ..

Let me correct you. Whites with no college are 44% of the voters.  There is a massive shift to the GOP among the men, but even among the females there is a shift.

Of the 10 swing states identified by the NYT only VA and NC do whites with no college account for less than 30% of the votes received by Obama in 2012.  PA, OH, WI and IA this demographic accounted for over 40% of the votes that he received, meaning that Trump can do serious damage if he makes more inroads than Romney did.  And that is exactly what is happening.

PA and IA Obama won 52%. He won by slightly over 50% in OH and FL. Even in FL whites with no college accounted for30% of the votes received.

So if there is a 10% slippage to Trump of this bloc, with the black turnout dropping from 13% of the overall (crucial in FL, NC, VA, PA and OH) to the more usual 11% Trump could win.

The Dems will have to work very hard on 2 things. Black turnout and arresting the steep decline in the white no college support.

It was noted that at the RNC there was none of the usual cutting taxes. So in the Midwest the GOP might look less than the rich man's party that it normally does. Note that the Midwest is a socially conservative region.

These aren't people who watch the debates, and they have a highly anti intellectual tradition, meaning a visceral hatred for smart policy wonks like Hillary. One can even wonder if this is where the "untrustworthy" sentiments come from.

FM
caribny posted:
Kari posted:

.

Trump's electoral strength is the 44% of the electorate demographic that is white male - ..

Let me correct you. Whites with no college are 44% of the voters.  There is a massive shift to the GOP among the men, but even among the females there is a shift.

Of the 10 swing states identified by the NYT only VA and NC do whites with no college account for less than 30% of the votes received by Obama in 2012.  PA, OH, WI and IA this demographic accounted for over 40% of the votes that he received, meaning that Trump can do serious damage if he makes more inroads than Romney did.  And that is exactly what is happening.

PA and IA Obama won 52%. He won by slightly over 50% in OH and FL. Even in FL whites with no college accounted for30% of the votes received.

So if there is a 10% slippage to Trump of this bloc, with the black turnout dropping from 13% of the overall (crucial in FL, NC, VA, PA and OH) to the more usual 11% Trump could win.

The Dems will have to work very hard on 2 things. Black turnout and arresting the steep decline in the white no college support.

It was noted that at the RNC there was none of the usual cutting taxes. So in the Midwest the GOP might look less than the rich man's party that it normally does. Note that the Midwest is a socially conservative region.

These aren't people who watch the debates, and they have a highly anti intellectual tradition, meaning a visceral hatred for smart policy wonks like Hillary. One can even wonder if this is where the "untrustworthy" sentiments come from.

Hillary will hold PA. The uphill here for trump is too much. If she hold PA and wins Florida he is toast.

FM
Kari posted:

CARIBNY, read my comments more carefully. I was referring to White MALE non-College educated males (a 70/30 Trump split) separately from all FEMALES (a 50/50 split between Hillary and Trump).

You have to include both genders as both genders have shown a slipping away from Obama in 2012.

White females with no college are 24% and white males 20%. The difference reflects the fact that at lower levels men are considerably less likely to vote.

So if Obama won 52% of the white female no college and its now 50% likely to vote Dem, than that small shift will impact, given the outsized role of females among working class voters.

What the NYT article stated was that the margins of victory in swing states was quite slim, so a 20% swing of white men, and a 3% swing of white women with no college could have damaging impact. 

This being especially true in the Midwest where many of these people traditionally did vote for the Dems.  It doesn't matter in VA as that cohort don't vote Dem, so their behavior will be offset by the swing towards the Dems by whites with college.

Remember that Obama won FL by only 50.1%.  It doesn't take much slippage for Trump to win.  Whites with no college accounted for just over 30% of the Dem votes in FL in 2012.  If its 27% this time then Trump wins, unless there is an offsetting minority vote.  Note that FL doesn't have a large college educated population.

FM
Kari posted:

I noticed that the quality of the DNC is such that we hardly got a peep out of Ba$e, Bibibski, Jugi,etc.

They don't understand what was being said because it isn't done in simple one liner screams.  Maybe by next week they might figure it out.

Warren is soon going to coin "Loser Trump".  She might even win over baseman and bibi. Yuji's racism is too deep.

FM
Kari posted:

Given the demographics Hillary looks strong on both PA and FL. But its early days yet.

How can Hillary be strong in those states when they are swing states?  FL was 50.l% BOTH times.  PA is only 52%.  Both are packed with uneducated whites.  VA and NC have demographics more favorable to her.

The Dems will have to work PA, OH, WI and IA with reminders that Trump buys Mexican and Chinese, not American.

FM
ksazma posted:

The Dems have really put together a star cast for the past three nights. Even some moderate Repubs are impressed. Can't wait for tonight and then the real push. The Donald is about to really get exposed when those debates begin.

Remember that its only a narrow audience which watches this, most having already decided they aren't voting for.  Maybe some GOP and Bernie fans will be convinced.  Don't expect much more.

In fact I was listening to NPR and several folks, who watched, considered both conventions to be PR and therefore having limited credibility to them.  Mere politicians giving spin, so still lots more ro be done.

When the debates begin and people have to defend their positions then we will see more shifting.

FM
caribny posted:
ksazma posted:

The Dems have really put together a star cast for the past three nights. Even some moderate Repubs are impressed. Can't wait for tonight and then the real push. The Donald is about to really get exposed when those debates begin.

Remember that its only a narrow audience which watches this, most having already decided they aren't voting for.  Maybe some GOP and Bernie fans will be convinced.  Don't expect much more.

In fact I was listening to NPR and several folks, who watched, considered both conventions to be PR and therefore having limited credibility to them.  Mere politicians giving spin, so still lots more ro be done.

When the debates begin and people have to defend their positions then we will see more shifting.

This is when Hillary will separate herself from that school yard bully Trump. Those silly name calling antics he had during the million and one Republican debate wouldn't work on the national stage. Hillary is tested and qualified to take over the job as President. Trump look like the type who would press the red button and then say, never mind. Trouble is that red button doesn't accommodate a 'never mind'.

FM

Hillary separated herself tonight.

She said that if Donald wants to make America great again he needs to start making stuff in America again. She added that Trump deliberately went into bankruptcy so he could stiff working stiffs of their pay.

Tomorrow Trump will say that Hillary is old and ugly and so he isn't going to bang  her. This as he waves his tiny hands around.

FM
Last edited by Former Member

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