Amaila Falls Hydropower Project now highly unlikely

Perhaps since 2015, the decision on Amaila Hydropower development was previously made and it was a matter time to locate the information to support the preconceived views.

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Guyana nixes plans for 165-MW Amaila Falls hydropower project

08/13/2015

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The Guyana government has abandoned plans to develop the 165-MW Amaila Falls hydroelectric plant, citing numerous delays and potential cost overruns.

The project was to have been Guyana's first major hydropower plant and would have been located about 250 kilometers southwest of the capital city on the Kuribrong River.

Preliminary estimates reported in 2008 put the price of the plant between US$400 million and $500 million, with financing to have been provided by sources including the Inter-American Development Bank, World Bank and New York-based Sithe Global.

Sithe, which signed an agreement with the China Railway First Group (CRFG) in September 2012 to help co-finance Amaila Falls, had already invested at least $16 million in preparatory work before fully withdrawing its support for the project in August 2013.

The Guyanese government will now begin planning feasibility studies for a new large hydropower project in the country's northwestern region, according to Finance Minister Winston Jordan, who also said smaller regionalized plants will also likely be a consideration.

TK posted:

X = Amaila; Y = Alternative. The report clearly says detail studies were done on X, but not the set of Y. If that's the case, the report cannot logically say anything about alternative hydro options. What it can say is that Amaila would likely be an improvement over the present 100% fossil fuel source, it's US$1 bill risk in a US$ 3 bill GDP economy notwithstanding. I think given this report the time has come to start implementing Amaila, knowing that in the history of big projects in Guyana there has always been cost overruns.

Either you are being facetious or you really lack understanding. To determine that a feasibility study should be done on Amelia alone, who made this decision? Jagdeo and the PPP or was this choice made by engineers based on pre feasibility study of other rivers?

Drugb posted:
TK posted:

X = Amaila; Y = Alternative. The report clearly says detail studies were done on X, but not the set of Y. If that's the case, the report cannot logically say anything about alternative hydro options. What it can say is that Amaila would likely be an improvement over the present 100% fossil fuel source, it's US$1 bill risk in a US$ 3 bill GDP economy notwithstanding. I think given this report the time has come to start implementing Amaila, knowing that in the history of big projects in Guyana there has always been cost overruns.

Either you are being facetious or you really lack understanding. To determine that a feasibility study should be done on Amelia alone, who made this decision? Jagdeo and the PPP or was this choice made by engineers based on pre feasibility study of other rivers?

You cannot in pre-feasibility come up with one option. Things like hydro in a small country like Guyana have macroeconomic concerns, as well as the obvious engineering factors. How many pre-feasibility studies were done?

TK posted:

You cannot in pre-feasibility come up with one option. Things like hydro in a small country like Guyana have macroeconomic concerns, as well as the obvious engineering factors. How many pre-feasibility studies were done?

Sure you can. Sometimes there is clearly only one front runner when all factors are considered. What is evident is that you have no evidence that this was not done, yet your hatred for Jagdeo makes you jump to this conclusion. 

Drugb posted:
TK posted:

You cannot in pre-feasibility come up with one option. Things like hydro in a small country like Guyana have macroeconomic concerns, as well as the obvious engineering factors. How many pre-feasibility studies were done?

Sure you can. Sometimes there is clearly only one front runner when all factors are considered. What is evident is that you have no evidence that this was not done, yet your hatred for Jagdeo makes you jump to this conclusion. 

What you fail to understand is the govt has the inside information. Observers are basing opinion on what the govt proposes and makes available. The govt is the caretaker and not the owner. It's like the CEO who is the agent acting on behalf of the owners/shareholders or principals. The CEO provides all sorts of information to analysts so that the principals can know their money is being invested well. But like the typical village idiot, you see my motives has hating Jagdeo. BTW, you have multiple choices for hydros.

TK posted:

.. BTW, before some people start yapping about manufacturing, .

The Dominican Republic and Puerto Rico have well established manufacturing sectors. Even Jamaica has a decent manufacturing sector.

The excuse offered by the PPP that energy explains why Guyana's manufacturing sector is small is ridiculous.

The DR and PR rely on the same sources of energy as does Guyana.

Drugb posted:
. What is evident is that you have no evidence that this was not done, yet your hatred for Jagdeo makes you jump to this conclusion. 

You have no evidence that any were done. If others were done why didn't the PPP speak to those as indicators that Amaila was the best option.

In fact was there even a feasibility study done for Amaila prior to the PPP making a decision on this?

TK posted:

What you fail to understand is the govt has the inside information. Observers are basing opinion on what the govt proposes and makes available. The govt is the caretaker and not the owner. It's like the CEO who is the agent acting on behalf of the owners/shareholders or principals. The CEO provides all sorts of information to analysts so that the principals can know their money is being invested well. But like the typical village idiot, you see my motives has hating Jagdeo. BTW, you have multiple choices for hydros.

Fair enough the lack of information makes the public suspicious. However we should not reject a proposal because Jagdeo started it.  You and others have a history of hating Jagdeo when you should be putting the country first. 

caribny posted:

You have no evidence that any were done. If others were done why didn't the PPP speak to those as indicators that Amaila was the best option.

In fact was there even a feasibility study done for Amaila prior to the PPP making a decision on this?

No I don't, however one can surmise that this was at least discussed before make the Amaila choice. You folks due to your hatred of Jagdeo assumed that he woke up one morning and concluded that the only feasibility study needed was  on Amaila. 

Drugb posted:
.. However we should not reject a proposal because Jagdeo started it.  .. 

If Granger and company came up with a US$1 billion project with inadequate feasibility studies, and evidence that the dam would be ineffective in the dry season you would have been screaming of "Kwe kwe economics".

Just because Jagdeo concocted a White Elephant replete with opportunities to steal, as did indeed happen with the infamous Fip Motilall road fiasco, doesn't mean that it should be accepted.

No one had an issue with extending the runway at GEO as it is all agreed that the existing runway is too short. But again the PPP had to mount an expensive terminal with more gateways than busy airports like St Maarten, to drive up costs, when an expansion of the existing building and maybe 3 jet bridges, would have been enough.

Drugb posted:
caribny posted:

You have no evidence that any were done. If others were done why didn't the PPP speak to those as indicators that Amaila was the best option.

In fact was there even a feasibility study done for Amaila prior to the PPP making a decision on this?

No I don't, however one can surmise that this was at least discussed before make the Amaila choice. You folks due to your hatred of Jagdeo assumed that he woke up one morning and concluded that the only feasibility study needed was  on Amaila. 

Druggie Amaila ceased to have support when Fip Motilal was awarded a project to build a road in hostile terrain when evidence shows that he couldn't even build a driveway.

You of all people know how tough building roads in the interior are, especially when they need to be strong enough to carry heavy equipment.

So spare us your screams of "Jagdeo is Lord and Master" when he undermined any credibility of a US$1 billion project with the Fip scandal.

On what basis was Fip awarded the road building project? So why would we entrust the PPP to manage a US$1 billion project?

Drugb posted:
TK posted:

What you fail to understand is the govt has the inside information. Observers are basing opinion on what the govt proposes and makes available. The govt is the caretaker and not the owner. It's like the CEO who is the agent acting on behalf of the owners/shareholders or principals. The CEO provides all sorts of information to analysts so that the principals can know their money is being invested well. But like the typical village idiot, you see my motives has hating Jagdeo. BTW, you have multiple choices for hydros.

Fair enough the lack of information makes the public suspicious. However we should not reject a proposal because Jagdeo started it.  You and others have a history of hating Jagdeo when you should be putting the country first. 

I actually think it is time to get moving on Amaila. I am interested in the economic viability. I have always been able to think for myself.

caribny posted:

Druggie Amaila ceased to have support when Fip Motilal was awarded a project to build a road in hostile terrain when evidence shows that he couldn't even build a driveway.

You of all people know how tough building roads in the interior are, especially when they need to be strong enough to carry heavy equipment.

So spare us your screams of "Jagdeo is Lord and Master" when he undermined any credibility of a US$1 billion project with the Fip scandal.

On what basis was Fip awarded the road building project? So why would we entrust the PPP to manage a US$1 billion project?

I believe that it is not as simple as Fip Motilal. The reason for killing Amaila was so as not to have any major project accredited to the PPP.  You folks did the same for the stadium and Mariott. However you all were on board initially for Skeldon, even Ramjattan and Nagamootoo. 

Putting aside your hatred, how do we move forward?

TK posted:

I actually think it is time to get moving on Amaila. I am interested in the economic viability. I have always been able to think for myself.

What I gleaned from the report is that it is not feasible. I doubt that any other developer will come in at a lower price to make it feasible. The Chinese will build it cheaply with another Skeldon in the works. To get quality you will need to pay more which is not cost effective. 

Drugb posted:
caribny posted:

You have no evidence that any were done. If others were done why didn't the PPP speak to those as indicators that Amaila was the best option.

In fact was there even a feasibility study done for Amaila prior to the PPP making a decision on this?

No I don't, however one can surmise that this was at least discussed before make the Amaila choice. You folks due to your hatred of Jagdeo assumed that he woke up one morning and concluded that the only feasibility study needed was  on Amaila. 

I am not sure why you folks are calling Amaila a Jagdeo initiative.  Here is a snippet from the report.

In 1974-76 GOG carried out a pre-feasibility study of the hydropower potential at Amaila Falls assuming an installed capacity of 200 MW. In 1997, a brief review of this study was done by others. It concluded by suggesting a 165 MW development.

This report found TECHNICAL flaws in the proposed design plus at first glance I do not believe Norconsult did a proper financial analysis.  I have to read the report in more detail.

Everyone knows that hydro-power is the best option for Guyana's future, but it has to be done properly before it turns out to be another white elephant like Jagdeo's Skeldon plant.  Since the 1970s they been wuking at it and till today we cannot have anything significant!

Drugb posted:
.

I believe that it is not as simple as Fip Motilal. The reason for killing Amaila was so as not to have any major project accredited to the PPP. .

And it was the responsibility of a responsible opposition to kill any project that appeared to be poorly conceived. The AFC did ask for feasibility studies, which were never furnished.

The PPP kicked their own shin with their incompetent arrogance.  You should blame them for that. It is asinine for you to think that the PPP could expect approval for a large project of this magnitude when they refused to provide information, and when the initial aspects of this project were riddled with corruption.

Why was Fip Motilall granted the road building award when it is obvious that he couldn't succeed: If you cannot address this then you have no business screaming that Jagdeo is the Master of the Universe, and can do what ever he wants.  In fact he has been an abject failure in GuySICKO. Even he now admits this as much as he is able to do so.

VVP posted:
.

I am not sure why you folks are calling Amaila a Jagdeo initiative...  Since the 1970s they been wuking at it and till today we cannot have anything significant!

It is because he was pushing it, and tried to encumber Guyana with massive debt, even as the project has yet to be properly conceived.

Drugb posted:
TK posted:

I actually think it is time to get moving on Amaila. I am interested in the economic viability. I have always been able to think for myself.

What I gleaned from the report is that it is not feasible. I doubt that any other developer will come in at a lower price to make it feasible. The Chinese will build it cheaply with another Skeldon in the works. To get quality you will need to pay more which is not cost effective. 

Like you catch sense.

I took a quick peek will read later.

caribny posted:
 
 

And it was the responsibility of a responsible opposition to kill any project that appeared to be poorly conceived. The AFC did ask for feasibility studies, which were never furnished.

The PPP kicked their own shin with their incompetent arrogance.  You should blame them for that. It is asinine for you to think that the PPP could expect approval for a large project of this magnitude when they refused to provide information, and when the initial aspects of this project were riddled with corruption.

Why was Fip Motilall granted the road building award when it is obvious that he couldn't succeed: If you cannot address this then you have no business screaming that Jagdeo is the Master of the Universe, and can do what ever he wants.  In fact he has been an abject failure in GuySICKO. Even he now admits this as much as he is able to do so.

Again, you are fixated on the PPP. What will the PNC do to fulfill Guyana's hydro electric aspirations? The power is now in jackass Granger's hands, but it looks like he is content to install a few solar panels and call it a day.

Drugb posted:
..

Again, you are fixated on the PPP. .

Because you are. When you cease screaming that Jagdeo is the Lord and Master of the Universe and its domains then I will cease talking about him.

He had wanted to encumber Guyana with a poorly conceived billion dollar project when he didn't even have the integrity or competence to award the road building to some one who could actually do this.

Thank God he was blocked and so the hydro will become available when properly conceived projects are developed.

Drugb posted:
Django posted:

Like you catch sense.

I took a quick peek will read later.

What ketch sense? If the report says it is not feasible then it is not. 

And yet you scream that Jagdeo is a magician even though this might have been even worse than his Skeldon fiasco had it not been blocked.

skeldon_man posted:

With all this nonsense going on, Guyana is doomed to eternal bottle and kerosene lamps. What a progressive Guyana to look forward to.

The jackasses in power don't have a vision for the country, they are waiting on oil. 

skeldon_man posted:

With all this nonsense going on, Guyana is doomed to eternal bottle and kerosene lamps. What a progressive Guyana to look forward to.

Skelly, the PPP is the only party capable of stabilizing Guyana. The PNC has always been of a Ko Ko Beah nature and will never change. 

It will become a vicious cycle, PPP builds and save Billions, PNC destroys and sport out the money.

Remember Scottsburg ?

PNC's idea of development is the hut at Umana Yana and big sport up and wine down at the Independence celebrations which Afro political commentators are calling an Afro Fest.

As old people would say, the PNC cannot even build a toilet, how can these idiots run a country ?

They have NOTHING to show in 19 months.

Let the truth be told.

TK posted:
VVP posted:

The report itself recognize that there are periods of dry spell where Amaila cannot operate at full capacity.  At one point it said that the operation is more like a run of river type (which seems to me like there is not sufficient reservoir capability).  This means they would still have to carry backup generation to serve the load.  If Amaila cannot generate for lack of water flow they will have to have total load backup.  So if there is not sufficient backup there could be blackout.

No blackouts cannot be guaranteed, even in the USA where massive amounts are spent on reliability.  The loss of a transmission tower could result in blackout under the Amaila construct.  Gotta run.

I only experienced ONE blackout in the US in 15 years. So, would this hydro put us in a situation of one blackout every 15 years? I would take that any day.

Living in Florida and only 1 blackout! Lucky you.  My Generac saves the day at least once a year for me, but I live in farm country so no big deal.

You cannot compare Guyana with the USA.  In NY, for example, we can lose our largest nuclear plant at 1,300 MW (one unit with output about 8 times the size of Amalia!) an you will not get a blackout because there is excess "generating/operating reserves" carried at all times to pick up the loss.  There is mega investment on reliability in the USA.

In 2003 there was a major blackout due to a problem in Ohio that caused a "system collapse" that cascaded throughout the Northeast.  NY lost over $1B in productivity for that incident.

Guyana has major reliability problems.  It's not only generation problems but transmission and distribution problems.  Minor incidents cause major collapses in Guyana.  In the USA heads will roll for those thing.  I think they need to do proper modeling of the electric system in Guyana and look into their system protection.  You can have all the generation in the world, but if you have a weak  transmission and distribution system you will have major problems.

yuji22 posted:
skeldon_man posted:

With all this nonsense going on, Guyana is doomed to eternal bottle and kerosene lamps. What a progressive Guyana to look forward to.

Skelly, the PPP is the only party capable of stabilizing Guyana. The PNC has always been of a Ko Ko Beah nature and will never change. 

 

You will need both PPP and PNC to work together. One alone cannot stabilize let alone develop the country.

Fundamental issues on hydropower development in Guyana ...

1. From the numerous studies on hydropower develop -- more that two hundred -- Amaila hydropower project is the one for Guyana to develop on an independent basis.

2. Amaila hydro can generate power to the greater part of Guyana except for the Essequibo coast.

3. Any smaller plants will serve the needs of the local communities.

4. Larger generating projects are outside the scope from a financial basis for Guyana. For these larger projects to develop, it needs the lead role of major countries - e.g., Brazil - which will effectively own the operation(s).

TK posted:
yuji22 posted:
skeldon_man posted:

With all this nonsense going on, Guyana is doomed to eternal bottle and kerosene lamps. What a progressive Guyana to look forward to.

Skelly, the PPP is the only party capable of stabilizing Guyana. The PNC has always been of a Ko Ko Beah nature and will never change. 

 

You will need both PPP and PNC to work together. One alone cannot stabilize let alone develop the country.

The only time they wuk together is to F up the constitution to put power in their own hands.

TK posted:
yuji22 posted:
skeldon_man posted:

With all this nonsense going on, Guyana is doomed to eternal bottle and kerosene lamps. What a progressive Guyana to look forward to.

Skelly, the PPP is the only party capable of stabilizing Guyana. The PNC has always been of a Ko Ko Beah nature and will never change. 

 

You will need both PPP and PNC to work together. One alone cannot stabilize let alone develop the country.

We know this is not possible. What other choice do the people of Guyana have? Grin and bear and allow the PNC to drain the treasury once again? Grin and bear the imposition of VAT to support government ministers to live high on the hog? Get rich off the backs of the poor? The last time checked, Guyana is not Russia or North Korea.

Demerara_Guy posted:

Fundamental issues on hydropower development in Guyana ...

1. From the numerous studies on hydropower develop -- more that two hundred -- Amaila hydropower project is the one for Guyana to develop on an independent basis.

 

What do you mean for the highlight above?

There is a statement in the report that:

Due to GPL's lack of institutional and financial strength, and GPL having no earlier experience in hydropower development, we think it out of the question that Guyana may be able to implement its first major project as a 100% public sector undertaking.

VVP posted:
Demerara_Guy posted:

Fundamental issues on hydropower development in Guyana ...

1. From the numerous studies on hydropower develop -- more that two hundred -- Amaila hydropower project is the one for Guyana to develop on an independent basis.

What do you mean for the highlight above?

There is a statement in the report that:

Due to GPL's lack of institutional and financial strength, and GPL having no earlier experience in hydropower development, we think it out of the question that Guyana may be able to implement its first major project as a 100% public sector undertaking.

1. My statement is quite clear on hydropower development in Guyana.

2. The report's statement on GPL is simply their opinion and is irrelevant to my noted comments.

Demerara_Guy posted:
VVP posted:
Demerara_Guy posted:

Fundamental issues on hydropower development in Guyana ...

1. From the numerous studies on hydropower develop -- more that two hundred -- Amaila hydropower project is the one for Guyana to develop on an independent basis.

What do you mean for the highlight above?

There is a statement in the report that:

Due to GPL's lack of institutional and financial strength, and GPL having no earlier experience in hydropower development, we think it out of the question that Guyana may be able to implement its first major project as a 100% public sector undertaking.

1. My statement is quite clear on hydropower development in Guyana.

2. The report's statement on GPL is simply their opinion and is irrelevant to my noted comments.

   

Demerara_Guy posted:

 

1. My statement is quite clear on hydropower development in Guyana.

2. The report's statement on GPL is simply their opinion and is irrelevant to my noted comments.

Perhaps germane to the topic but then you are also saying that you lack relevance.

Important statement in the report:

We recommend that the programme for continuous water flow measurement is resumed as soon as possible and before a new main sponsor would be ready to take the front seat. 2-3 additional years of continuous flow data would provide a more reliable basis for an updated energy production simulation and thereby reduce the risks for both parties related to the PPA. Based on the same improved flow data the design flood capacities of the dam spillway and flood levels of the reservoir should be reviewed as well.

And DG says....perhaps or perhaps not 

This is really good news to me.  The site has potential for future expansion; meaning that if designed properly the same transmission lines should be able to deliver power from future expansion.

Excerpt:

2016-12-12 | Page 26 of 49
Possible Future Extension of Amaila Falls Hydropower Plant
As Guyana's power demand is growing over the years, the long term optimum installed capacity at Amaila Falls in a developed power market would probably be higher than the 165 MW initially planned. In the future, therefore, extension of the installed capacity in Amaila Falls may be considered and compared in a least cost expansion perspective together with other hydropower sites with acceptable environmental and social impacts.
We envisage a possible second stage extension as a separate plant located in parallel with the first one. A major advantage of such overall layout is that there is no need to decide now on what shall be the total future installed capacity. Secondly, upfront investment in the first stage on works that will be useful only in the future will be minimal. As preparatory works for a possible second stage, only works required for avoiding later interruption of ongoing plant operation should be considered.
If water flow measurements in Kuribrong River is resumed in the near future as part of the project preparations, and with a time perspective of at least 10 years between the commissioning dates of the two stages, several years of river flow records would be available for reliable optimisation of the final installed capacity.
Provided the same reservoir limits are maintained after a future extension of the capacity, the marginal environmental impacts would be insignificant.

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