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Reply to "REV: A PPP VICTORY IS 100% GUARANTEED"

Originally Posted by Shaitaan:
Originally Posted by caribny:

The election will be decided on who shows up, and the extent to which the PPP succeeds in manipulating the election.

 

Absolutely! A very small shift in turnout in favor of one side will decide the election.

 

10k+ Black/Mixed turnout; or

10k+ Indian/Amerindian turnout; or

10k- Indian/Amerindian turnout

 

will totally upend this election. As the parties are so evenly divided, it becomes almost impossible to do anything but wait for the official results.

 

The extraordinary thing is that the Coalition seems to be largely holding, except Berbice. Holding the remainder of the AFC plus a slight APNU increase of 10k voters is enough to win for the Coalition.

 

If by an act of God the PPP wins next month, then this is their last election. PPP voters alone cannot produce majority governments anymore.

 

 

Region 3 is now more important than Region 6.  If APNU AFC make inroads into the rice farmers this will offset any loss in Region 6.

 

The Amerindians are an unknown quality.  Their turn out is low and much of their past behavior was about running with the winner to get the spoils. With the PPP being less obviously the winner, and the Granger campaigning heavily in those areas it isn't assured that a high Amerindian turn out favors the PPP.  In fact I suspect the opposite, as many of the votes in the past were an ageing generation accustomed to voting as their tochaos commanded. Will a new generation behave this way?

FM
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