Much of the bubble factor in Guyana's economy comes from the under ground economy, much of it illegal. I very much doubt that this part of the economy does anything other than concentrate much of the economic activity within a narrow class of oligarchs. The fact that these PPP connected oligarchs might be attempting to shift assets outside of Guyana is their choice.
I was disappointed that the government not did not quickly get parliament in session and pass an interim budget. I thought that this would have reduced the uncertainty after the elections. I do not believe that in terms of broad economic policy, that the government did anything that resulted in a slowdown of the economy. It is a matter of confidence by both the consumers and those who own or hope to own businesses.
The underground economy, I believe is much wider than a narrow class of oligarchs. I am amazed at how much money people with low government jobs or lower clerical jobs in businesses spend. I keep complaining that many people live in Guyana but spend like Americans. The common understanding in Guyana, which I discovered to my dismay was that everyone is on the make. I accept that there are oligarchs who are extremely wealthy, who have businesses and spend lots. They might be cutting back on spending until they figure out where the government is going with the issues they are concerned with.
The major spinoff effect is from the gold industry. We can easily calculate the spinoff effects of the fall in price of golD and on production. Part of getting a really good measure is verifying the cost of production of miners and the reliability of the numbers we have. The government is still spending because they of the one twelfth provision. They have not slashed any spending. The GRA is still collecting taxes, excise duties, etc, Sugar workers are still working and rice farmers are producing at record numbers. I still think that this is a crisis in confidence and this must be urgently addressed by the government if they hope to get things going. Have a good evening!