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Reply to "AFC 12th Anniversary"

Zed posted:

The search for a third force continues because the AFC

Guyanese don't want a 3rd force.  In 2006 disgruntled middle class PNC supporters voted for the AFC and the PNC grass roots stayed home.  In 2011 disgruntled PPP supporters voted for them as they favored Nagamootoo in a way that they didn't Ramjattan.

In 2015 the AFC lost their Indo Berbice base.  Maybe they got votes from certain people in G/T who couldn't stomach a PNC vote but wanted to see the end of the PPP.  Maybe the rhetoric of "love and unity" motivated the PNC base to show up thinking that this was the first time that a PPP loss seemed imminent.  But what we do know is that Ramjattan/Nagamootoo didn't split the rural Indo vote, so aren't seen as bringing much to the table.

Guyanese are quite happy with the state of affairs as they certainly aren't doing anything to change this.

2020 will be another ethnic census.  The only question will be which base is more disaffected.  The East Indian/Amerindian or the African/mixed.  This time the disgruntled will stay home.  That will determine who wins, unless the PPP reinvents itself.  APNU is too stupid to do so and the AFC top leaders are already exceeding their dreams so ready to retire.

There are those who forecast that the next election will be even more determined by racial anxieties than before. Jagdeo is throwing a light on this fuel spill, thinking that scenes of violence will motivate their "straight haired" base out to vote. 

Granger slumbers, anticipating retirement in 2020 so he doesn't care what the outcome is. Unlike Jagdeo this gentleman has upper middle class sensibilities, doesn't need extreme wealth and so isn't hungry enough to do what it takes to win in 2020.  His outsized pension (for which he remains grateful to Jagdeo) will be enough to meet his needs.

FM
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